文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 特朗普关税后的股汇表现有无规律？ 特朗普公布超预期关税之后，以股市和汇率为典型代表的风险资产明显回调。 选择美国前50个贸易伙伴 （不含墨、加）加上墨西哥和加拿大，观察其汇率和股指表现与几组经济指标的关系 。 1、去掉缺失值和部分盯住美元的汇率，汇率的有效样本为38个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有13个，下跌的有 25个。发达经济体的汇率（-0.8%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-0.3%）。 2、去掉缺失值，股指的有效样本为34个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有3个，下跌的有31个。发达经济体股指 （-5.2%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-3.9%）。 3、美国贸易伙伴的股汇表现，与其在美国进口中的份额占比、经济体量、人均GDP水平、出口依赖度之 间，没有明显的相关性 。 4、各经济体的汇率表现，似乎与美国对其加征的对等关税税率呈现一定的正相关性，对等关税税率越高， 汇率的表现反而相对较好。 股指表现与对等关税税率没有明显相关性。进一步观察，各经济体汇率表现， 与对等关税 ...

Global Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a widespread decline, with the largest drop in the U.S. market; the Nasdaq index fell by 11.4%, entering a technical bear market[12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased by 2.2%, significantly less than the average decline in developed markets[12] - Major developed markets saw a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, with U.S. yields falling the most by 19 basis points (bps)[13] Currency and Commodity Trends - In the global currency market, the Japanese yen and euro appreciated by 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8%[19] - Commodity prices generally declined, with COMEX silver dropping by 15.3%, WTI crude oil by 13.6%, and COMEX copper by 12.9%[20] Impact of Tariffs on Stock and Currency - Following the announcement of unexpected tariffs by Trump, risk assets like stocks and currencies showed significant pullbacks; among 38 currency samples, 13 appreciated while 25 depreciated[28] - The average decline in developed economies' currencies was -0.8%, compared to -0.3% in non-developed markets[56] - There appears to be a positive correlation between the level of reciprocal tariff rates and currency performance, with higher tariffs correlating to better currency performance[5] Economic Indicators - U.S. financial conditions index fell below zero, indicating tighter financial conditions, worse than during the previous year's market turmoil[81] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were better than expected, with 219,000 claims reported against an expectation of 225,000[75] - The U.S. mortgage rate remained stable at 6.64%, with a slight decrease in mortgage application indices[70]