6月24日，在特朗普宣布实现伊以停火后，他又将目标转移到了中国身上。 他发文声称，现阶段中方可以从伊朗购买石油，但他更希望中国能大批量地购买美国石油，这对他将是"巨大荣幸"。 这明显和美国长期制裁伊朗，针对中国的立场不相符，那他此时发声，向外界释放了怎样的信号？ 特朗普的这一表态看似突兀，实则是他对能源战略的延续，通过制造地缘紧张与释放"合作"信号的双重手段，推动美国石油出口。 所以，美国从未放弃试图在全球能源市场占据领导者地位的野心，而此次伊以停火的时间节点也尤为微妙。 再加上中东地区的不稳定性，特别是伊朗与以色列的紧张关系，威胁着霍尔木兹海峡等关键运输通道的安全。 而且特朗普对能源外交的热衷由来已久，早在2020年国际油价暴跌期间，他就曾宣布购买7500万桶原油以填满战略储备，试图通过政府干预稳定市场。 而在第二任期内，其能源政策更趋激进：一方面施压欧佩克增产以压低油价，另一方面却又鼓励国内页岩油商"钻吧"。 不仅如此，根据国际能源署（IEA）2025年3月报告，全球石油市场正面临供应过剩压力。 与此同时，中国作为全球最大原油进口国，却在特朗普的贸易战中大幅削减美国石油采购——2025年第一季度，中国自美 ...

上世纪六十年代，美国和苏联在石油这件事上撕破脸，谁都不愿意在"油权"上退让半步。 美国不光自己油不够用，还要千方百计去中东、非洲"找油"；苏联看着油多心里却慌，因为设备老旧、人才外流，油田一天不出事都算运气好。两大强国明 里谈合作，暗地里全是算计，反倒是那个当时还"没多少存在感"的中国，低头干事、不声不响地把门道摸清了。 这场看似激烈的博弈，最终谁赢了？ 可能你想不到，最后笑得最稳的，不是喊得最响的。 上世纪六十年代，美国已经感觉到油要不够用了，国内的常规油田产量到顶，页岩油又贵得离谱，开采成本高得让人咂舌。于是，一边在国会里跟石油公司 你来我往，一边把外交触角伸向中东北非。 嘴上说是"互利合作"，实则协议里藏着一堆条件：开发权、价格控制、美元结算，样样不落。当时的很多中东国家表面答应得挺痛快，背后也清楚——美国 不是来交朋友的，是来算账的。 冷战时期，谁控制了石油，谁就能左右世界。 而苏联，石油储量吓人，光西西伯利亚油田就能顶美国好几个州。但问题是技术跟不上，管理也乱套，跟别人签的合同经常干不到一半就黄了。 比如当年答应给伊拉克一整套钻井系统，结果设备送过去后没有人懂维修，几个月内坏了好几台，伊拉克政府气得 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around China's rejection of Russia's proposal to increase oil supply through Kazakhstan, which surprised many in the energy sector given the historically smooth energy cooperation between China and Russia [1][3][5] - The rejection is attributed to increased transportation costs of 15-20% and significant pipeline construction expenses due to the longer route from Russia to China via Kazakhstan [7][8] - China prioritizes energy security and prefers direct pipelines from the China-Russia border for better control and efficiency, reflecting a strategic approach to energy diplomacy [10][30] Group 2 - Following the rejection of the oil proposal, China Nuclear Group announced plans to build Kazakhstan's second nuclear power plant, leveraging Kazakhstan's vast uranium reserves [12][14] - Kazakhstan's energy landscape is shifting, as the country has relied heavily on coal for electricity, which is expected to face a significant power shortage by 2025 [14][16] - The nuclear project represents a more valuable opportunity for Kazakhstan compared to transit fees from oil, highlighting China's comprehensive capabilities in nuclear energy [33][34] Group 3 - The diplomatic engagement between China and Kazakhstan is characterized by high-level receptions and a desire for cooperation, contrasting with Mongolia's missed opportunities due to indecision [21][23] - Kazakhstan's strategy of balancing relations with both Russia and China demonstrates a pragmatic approach to foreign policy, as seen in its decision to allow both countries to participate in nuclear projects [26][28] - China's energy diplomacy is evolving towards a more nuanced and pragmatic approach, focusing on specific project economics, safety, and controllability rather than binary choices [30][34]

Core Insights - China has emerged as a global energy superpower, becoming the world's largest oil refiner and the second-largest in petrochemicals, surprising Western military and political circles with its strategic victories in the energy sector [1][10] Industry Development - In the early years after its establishment, China faced severe oil shortages, producing only over 1 million tons annually and relying heavily on imports [3] - The discovery of major oil fields like Daqing marked a turning point, leading to a significant increase in domestic oil production, which eventually surpassed 100 million tons [3][5] Global Positioning - Since 2000, China has expanded its global oil strategy, establishing pipelines and partnerships in Central Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and South America, with over 100 million tons of crude oil produced from overseas projects [5][7] - In 2023, China's overseas oil equity production reached 230 million tons, showcasing the combined efforts of major state-owned enterprises [7] Strategic Implications - Control over Middle Eastern energy resources is crucial for global geopolitical leverage, with China adopting a strategy of infrastructure development and long-term cooperation rather than military intervention [8][10] - China's refining capacity has surpassed 700 million tons in 2023, making it the world's largest refiner, with significant implications for various industries reliant on petrochemical products [10][12] Military and Economic Integration - The integration of energy resources into military strategy is evident, with China's naval and air capabilities supported by a robust domestic energy system [5][15] - Energy security is framed not just in terms of oil availability but also in the ability to transport and protect these resources, highlighting the military's role in safeguarding energy routes [15]