1月6日化工板块表现也相对较高，化工龙头ETF（516220）上涨3.80%。 此前，陕西发改委发布提高高耗能产品电价的通知(征求意见稿)，对铁合金、电石、烧碱、水泥、 钢铁、黄磷、锌冶炼7个行业限制类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘汰类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.3元。 2026年5月底前完成技术改造或者淘汰落后产能。自2026年7月1日起收取加价电费，2026年7月后完成技 术改造或淘汰落后产能的企业，可按照上述程序申请退出执行差别电价的企业清单。假设上述通知落 地，高能耗行业中高成本装置或将逐步退出，利好具备自备电厂的高耗能企业。 根据开源证券，十五五期间为推进碳达峰关键阶段，目前已有措施陆续推进能耗控制： 1、年耗煤量超过50万吨标煤的项目集中在发改委审批； 2、健全碳交易市场，2025年扩围电解铝、水泥、玻璃、钢铁四个行业，剩余石化、化工、造纸、 航空计划2027年基本完成纳入； 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理 相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the technology sector, suggesting a "bull market" driven by improved risk appetite due to potential easing in US-China relations [1][8]. Core Insights - The core insight of the report emphasizes that the performance of major asset classes in Q2 will largely depend on risk appetite, with a particular focus on the equity market benefiting from improved US-China dialogue [1][8]. - The report anticipates a slight economic slowdown in Q2, with GDP growth expected to decrease to approximately 4.9% from 5.1% in Q1, primarily due to weaker internal dynamics in the private sector [2][12]. - The report highlights that broad infrastructure and manufacturing investments are expected to remain resilient, contributing to economic recovery [2][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Q2 GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.9%, influenced by a recovery in both supply and demand driven by counter-cyclical policies [2][12]. - Retail sales growth is expected to reach 5.5% in Q2, supported by low base effects and policy stimulus [18][19]. Monetary Policy - The report suggests a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q2, while interest rate cuts remain uncertain due to external pressures [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a proactive stance, with an increase in government bond issuance and a focus on special bonds for land reserves [4][46]. Industry Policy - The report indicates a push for innovation and energy consumption control, with a focus on supporting new industries such as quantum technology and AI [4][26]. US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to stabilize in Q2, with the report attributing recent economic slowdowns to uncertainties in fiscal policy and trade tariffs [5][7]. Major Asset Classes - The report predicts that the stock market will maintain a high-risk appetite leading up to potential meetings between US and Chinese leaders, with technology stocks expected to perform well [1][8].