Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. Gross profit was HKD 1.827 billion, down 20.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 571 million, a decline of 24.4%. The interim dividend per share remained flat at HKD 0.13 [2][6]. - The core operating business remains stable, although the installation, maintenance, and construction segments, along with property business, have seen declines, impacting overall profitability. The company has shown signs of a turning point in free cash flow, indicating potential for future dividend increases [2][9]. Business Segment Analysis - **Urban Water Supply**: Revenue decreased by 13.1% to HKD 3.27 billion, with segment profit down 17.4% to HKD 941 million. However, core water supply service revenue increased by 4.5% to HKD 1.801 billion, driven by a 5% increase in water sales. The completion of water price adjustments in eight cities is expected to further boost revenue and profit margins [9]. - **Direct Drinking Water**: Revenue fell by 28.3% to HKD 263 million, with segment profit declining 55.2% to HKD 75 million. Despite this, revenue from direct water supply operations and equipment sales remained stable [9]. - **Environmental Segment**: Benefiting from the Meifeng Wastewater Treatment Project, this segment achieved revenue of HKD 832 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with segment profit rising 29.7% to HKD 367 million [9]. - **General Contracting**: Revenue decreased by 6.1% to HKD 398 million, with segment profit down 60.2% to HKD 158 million [9]. - **Property Business**: Revenue plummeted by 93.3% to HKD 17 million, with segment profit dropping 96.4% to HKD 500,000, but the impact on overall performance is expected to be limited [9]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a 17.6% decrease in financial expenses during FY2026H1, benefiting from lower financing costs amid domestic and international interest rate cuts [9]. - The interim dividend payout ratio is 37%, with capital expenditures peaking at HKD 5.14 billion in FY2024, decreasing to HKD 3.24 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 150 million. For FY2026, capital expenditures are projected to be no more than HKD 2 billion, indicating a clear turning point in free cash flow and potential for increased dividends [9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.14 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.20 billion for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 2.2%, and 2.7% respectively. The emergence of free cash flow is viewed positively for future dividend increases, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 42.53% for FY2026-2028, corresponding to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.2%, and 5.3% based on the stock price as of November 28, 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the water supply industry in China, with a stable development in its main water supply business and a first-mover advantage in pipeline drinking water [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company serves over 30 million people in urban water supply and approximately 12 million in pipeline drinking water as of FY2025 [1] - The revenue structure includes urban water supply (64.3%), environmental protection (13.1%), general contracting (5.7%), pipeline drinking water (5.6%), property development and investment (3.1%), and other segments (8.2%) [1] - The company has no controlling shareholder, with a diversified and balanced ownership structure, including major shareholders such as the chairman Duan Chuanliang (27.4%), Orix (27.3%), and Great Wall Life Insurance [1] Group 2: Financial Highlights - The company has passed its peak capital expenditure phase, with FY2024 capital expenditure at HKD 5.14 billion, decreasing to HKD 3.24 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 150 million [1] - The capital expenditure is expected to be capped at HKD 2 billion in FY2026, indicating a clear turning point for capital expenditure and potential for increasing free cash flow and dividends [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The water supply and sewage treatment sectors are experiencing stable growth, with municipal public facility investments showing signs of recovery due to national equipment renewal policies [2] - The projected CAGR for water supply and sewage treatment from 2025 to 2027 is 0.37% and 1.2%, respectively [2] - The company’s operational capacity as of FY2025 includes water supply (730,000 tons/day), sewage (90,000 tons/day), and raw water (189,000 tons/day), with ongoing construction capacities showing limited growth [2] Group 4: Drinking Water Segment - The company has made strategic acquisitions in the pipeline drinking water sector, which are expected to stabilize profitability despite a decline in connection and construction business [3] - Forecasted net profit for FY2026-2028 is HKD 1.25 billion, HKD 1.28 billion, and HKD 1.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 2.2%, and 2.4% respectively [3] - Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 42.53% for FY2026-2028, the corresponding dividend yields are projected to be 5.3%, 5.4%, and 5.5% [3]

Group 1 - ConocoPhillips (COP.US) is set to announce its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, with Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott lowering the target price from $123 to $122 while maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] - The company has completed the integration of Marathon Oil and expects to achieve over $1 billion in synergies and one-time gains, aiming for over $1 billion in cost reductions by the end of 2026 [1] - ConocoPhillips has signed a long-term purchase agreement with NextDecade to procure 1 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually from the Rio Grande project in Texas [1] Group 2 - Cullen Capital Management highlighted ConocoPhillips as a leading independent exploration and production company with a global low-cost, high-return asset portfolio and a strict capital allocation strategy [2] - The company is approaching a free cash flow inflection point as capital expenditures for large long-cycle projects are expected to decrease in the second half of 2025, enhancing shareholder return capabilities [2] - Management plans to return approximately 45% of operating cash flow through dividends and stock buybacks, supported by efficiency improvements and a solid balance sheet [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 12.2 billion for FY2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.075 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - The company's main business revenue was HKD 11.656 billion, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [2] - Revenue from the urban water supply segment was HKD 7.498 billion, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly increasing by 0.1% to HKD 2.493 billion due to cost control [2] - The direct drinking water segment saw revenue drop by 61.9% to HKD 0.657 billion, with segment profit decreasing by 58.9% [2] - The environmental protection segment achieved revenue of HKD 1.523 billion, up 42.2% year-on-year, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [2] - Total construction revenue was HKD 0.664 billion, down 19.7% year-on-year, with segment profit decreasing by 9.3% [2] - Property revenue reached HKD 0.361 billion, with segment profit increasing by 16.5% [2] Operational Performance - Water supply operations generated revenue of HKD 3.526 billion, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year, with water sales volume rising by 7.4% to 1.5 billion tons [3] - The average water price was HKD 2.35 per ton, with over 20 projects initiating price adjustment procedures [3] - Direct drinking water operations revenue increased by 7.2% to HKD 0.315 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 29.8% from FY22 to FY25 [4] - Direct drinking water equipment revenue surged by 226.3% to HKD 0.078 billion [4] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure peaked at HKD 5.33 billion in FY2024 and is projected to decrease to HKD 3.4 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 2 billion for FY2026 [4] - The company maintained a stable total dividend of HKD 0.28 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 42.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percentage points [4] Profit Forecast - The decline in FY2025 performance was primarily due to one-time impairment losses, with net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 adjusted down to HKD 1.372 billion and HKD 1.387 billion, respectively [4] - The projected net profit for FY2028 is HKD 1.415 billion, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 [4]