Core Insights - Hangzhou has experienced a significant increase in water consumption due to hot weather, with daily water supply reaching a record high of 1.9393 million tons on August 18, surpassing the previous peak of 1.8875 million tons [1] - The total daily water supply within the integrated service area of the municipal water group reached 4.2716 million tons, exceeding the historical maximum of 4.1929 million tons [1] - The current water supply capacity of the municipal water group is 5.483 million tons per day, with the Jiangbei main urban area capable of supplying 2.55 million tons per day, meeting the summer peak demand [1] Group 1 - The municipal water group has implemented special measures to ensure peak water supply, including enhancing the operation management of water treatment plants, coordinating station networks during peak periods, and strengthening water quality monitoring [1] - Recent infrastructure improvements include the expansion of Xiangfu Water Plant, which will double its capacity from 250,000 tons per day to 500,000 tons per day by December 2024 [1] - Successful completion of the DN1600 water supply connection pipeline has further enhanced the water delivery capacity of Xiangfu Water Plant [1] Group 2 - In January, the DN1600 water supply pipeline on Fengqi East Road in the main urban area was put into operation, addressing the growing water demand in the Xiasha area [2] - The entire western line water supply network in Jiande City was completed, ending the history of decentralized water supply for towns like Datong and Lijia [2] - Multiple connecting pipelines in Fuyang District have been completed, improving the interconnectivity and complementary capacity of the water supply network across different areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Water Affairs (00855) is currently valued at a significant discount compared to its peers, with a target price of HKD 7.80 and a "Buy" rating from CITIC Securities, reflecting a 20% valuation discount based on a target PE of 10x for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 37.8% in FY2025, with notable increases in profitability across all business segments, including urban water supply, pipeline drinking water, and environmental protection [2] - The company’s sales, management, and financial expense ratios showed mixed changes, with financial expenses increasing due to a high proportion of US dollar debt, but there is potential for reduction through debt restructuring and a declining interest rate environment [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - In FY2025, the company commissioned 81.7 million tons per day of new water production capacity, leading to a 7.0% increase in water sales volume to 1.5 billion tons, with further growth expected as additional capacity comes online in FY2026 [3] - The company has implemented water price adjustments in several projects, with expectations that total adjustments could exceed 1 million tons per day, benefiting from ongoing reforms in water pricing across major cities [3] Group 3: Cash Flow and Dividends - For the first time since 2020, the company achieved positive free cash flow of HKD 1.58 billion in FY2025, supported by a reduction in capital expenditures [4] - The company maintained its dividend at HKD 0.28 per share, with a 12 percentage point increase in the payout ratio to 42%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 12.2 billion for FY2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.075 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - The company's main business revenue was HKD 11.656 billion, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [2] - Revenue from the urban water supply segment was HKD 7.498 billion, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly increasing by 0.1% to HKD 2.493 billion due to cost control [2] - The direct drinking water segment saw revenue drop by 61.9% to HKD 0.657 billion, with segment profit decreasing by 58.9% [2] - The environmental protection segment achieved revenue of HKD 1.523 billion, up 42.2% year-on-year, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [2] - Total construction revenue was HKD 0.664 billion, down 19.7% year-on-year, with segment profit decreasing by 9.3% [2] - Property revenue reached HKD 0.361 billion, with segment profit increasing by 16.5% [2] Operational Performance - Water supply operations generated revenue of HKD 3.526 billion, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year, with water sales volume rising by 7.4% to 1.5 billion tons [3] - The average water price was HKD 2.35 per ton, with over 20 projects initiating price adjustment procedures [3] - Direct drinking water operations revenue increased by 7.2% to HKD 0.315 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 29.8% from FY22 to FY25 [4] - Direct drinking water equipment revenue surged by 226.3% to HKD 0.078 billion [4] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure peaked at HKD 5.33 billion in FY2024 and is projected to decrease to HKD 3.4 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 2 billion for FY2026 [4] - The company maintained a stable total dividend of HKD 0.28 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 42.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percentage points [4] Profit Forecast - The decline in FY2025 performance was primarily due to one-time impairment losses, with net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 adjusted down to HKD 1.372 billion and HKD 1.387 billion, respectively [4] - The projected net profit for FY2028 is HKD 1.415 billion, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Water Affairs (00855.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the core operational profit is steadily growing, with a cash flow turning point already evident. The decline in FY2025 performance is primarily due to one-time impairment impacts, while the core operational business remains robust [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at HKD 12,200 million, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,075 million, down 29.92% year-on-year [1][7] - The main business revenue is HKD 11,656 million, reflecting a 9.4% decline year-on-year, mainly due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [1][7] - The report details segment performance: - Urban water supply revenue is HKD 7,498 million, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly up by 0.1% [1] - Direct drinking water revenue is HKD 657 million, down 61.9%, with segment profit down 58.9% [1] - Environmental segment revenue is HKD 1,523 million, up 42.2%, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [1] - Total construction revenue is HKD 664 million, down 19.7%, with segment profit down 9.3% [1] - Property revenue is HKD 361 million, with segment profit up 16.5% [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 1,372 million for FY2026, HKD 1,387 million for FY2027, and HKD 1,415 million for FY2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times [1][7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from HKD 53.3 billion in FY2024 to HKD 34 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 20 billion for FY2026 [1][7] - The dividend per share for FY2025 is projected to remain stable at HKD 0.28, with a payout ratio of 42.5% and a dividend yield of 4.65% [1][7]