Core Viewpoint - China Water Affairs (00855) is currently valued at a significant discount compared to its peers, with a target price of HKD 7.80 and a "Buy" rating from CITIC Securities, reflecting a 20% valuation discount based on a target PE of 10x for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 37.8% in FY2025, with notable increases in profitability across all business segments, including urban water supply, pipeline drinking water, and environmental protection [2] - The company’s sales, management, and financial expense ratios showed mixed changes, with financial expenses increasing due to a high proportion of US dollar debt, but there is potential for reduction through debt restructuring and a declining interest rate environment [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - In FY2025, the company commissioned 81.7 million tons per day of new water production capacity, leading to a 7.0% increase in water sales volume to 1.5 billion tons, with further growth expected as additional capacity comes online in FY2026 [3] - The company has implemented water price adjustments in several projects, with expectations that total adjustments could exceed 1 million tons per day, benefiting from ongoing reforms in water pricing across major cities [3] Group 3: Cash Flow and Dividends - For the first time since 2020, the company achieved positive free cash flow of HKD 1.58 billion in FY2025, supported by a reduction in capital expenditures [4] - The company maintained its dividend at HKD 0.28 per share, with a 12 percentage point increase in the payout ratio to 42%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Water Affairs (00855.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the core operational profit is steadily growing, with a cash flow turning point already evident. The decline in FY2025 performance is primarily due to one-time impairment impacts, while the core operational business remains robust [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at HKD 12,200 million, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,075 million, down 29.92% year-on-year [1][7] - The main business revenue is HKD 11,656 million, reflecting a 9.4% decline year-on-year, mainly due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [1][7] - The report details segment performance: - Urban water supply revenue is HKD 7,498 million, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly up by 0.1% [1] - Direct drinking water revenue is HKD 657 million, down 61.9%, with segment profit down 58.9% [1] - Environmental segment revenue is HKD 1,523 million, up 42.2%, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [1] - Total construction revenue is HKD 664 million, down 19.7%, with segment profit down 9.3% [1] - Property revenue is HKD 361 million, with segment profit up 16.5% [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 1,372 million for FY2026, HKD 1,387 million for FY2027, and HKD 1,415 million for FY2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times [1][7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from HKD 53.3 billion in FY2024 to HKD 34 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 20 billion for FY2026 [1][7] - The dividend per share for FY2025 is projected to remain stable at HKD 0.28, with a payout ratio of 42.5% and a dividend yield of 4.65% [1][7]

Core Insights - The project in Yinan Town, Xiaoshan District, marks the first pipeline drinking water project in a resettlement community in Hangzhou and serves as a benchmark project for China Gas Holdings Limited in Zhejiang [2] - The pipeline drinking water system provides purified drinking water directly to residents' homes, addressing previous issues of poor water quality and supply in the area [2] Group 1 - The pipeline drinking water project utilizes a closed-loop circulation network to deliver water that meets health standards, ensuring the removal of impurities, bacteria, viruses, and heavy metals [2] - Compared to bottled water and community water stations, the pipeline system offers 24-hour circulating fresh water supply, making it safer, healthier, more convenient, economical, and intelligent [2] - The project aims to reduce household costs associated with purchasing bottled water [2] Group 2 - After the project commenced, it will adhere to both national and corporate internal control standards, establishing a comprehensive monitoring system with monthly public water quality reports [3] - The project includes 24/7 professional operation and maintenance services, leveraging a smart water management platform to ensure rapid fault response and same-day repair services [3] - The billing process is designed to be transparent and accessible, offering multiple payment methods to ensure residents feel secure and informed about their water usage [3]