Core Viewpoint - The China-ASEAN Construction Technology Expo showcases innovations and future cooperation in the construction sector, emphasizing smart construction, digital applications, and green low-carbon initiatives [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo is part of the 2025 China-ASEAN Construction Ministers' Roundtable Meeting, themed "Building the Future Together" [1] - It features seven exhibition areas, including smart construction and urban development, highlighting collaborative achievements between China and ASEAN [1] - Over 60 companies participated, with 41 from China, including several Fortune 500 and leading industry firms, and 22 from ASEAN countries [1] Group 2: Company Focus - China Gas - China Gas is the largest and earliest city gas enterprise in Guangxi, with nearly 15,000 kilometers of pipeline and over 3 million users [2] - The company aims to extend its services beyond gas supply to home living services, showcasing innovations in home comfort and safety [2] - The company signals its intention to expand into Southeast Asian markets, aligning with Guangxi's role as a gateway for cooperation with ASEAN [2]

Group 1 - The China-ASEAN Construction Ministers' Roundtable Conference was held in Guilin, Guangxi, showcasing the theme "Building the Future Together" [1] - China Gas Holdings Limited presented its innovative technologies and service models, highlighting its transformation from a traditional gas supplier to a technology-driven comprehensive energy service provider [1][2] - The company showcased its "Smart Gas City" solution, which integrates AI, IoT, and big data for efficient gas lifecycle management [2] Group 2 - China Gas has transitioned to green secondary energy, with over 100 operational energy storage projects in China, maintaining a leading market share [2] - The company is actively developing biomass energy solutions, providing clean energy options to commercial users, aiding in low-carbon transitions [2] Group 3 - The company launched modern home solutions under its brand Yipinhui, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability, aligning with national housing expectations [3][6] - The "Five Constants System" was introduced, ensuring stable indoor conditions and energy efficiency, outperforming traditional systems in both summer and winter [7] Group 4 - Yipinhui set up an outdoor exhibition for its pipeline drinking water technology, aiming to enhance drinking water quality for 20 million users in various cities [8] - The company signed multiple cooperation agreements during the conference, focusing on zero-carbon parks and biomass natural gas projects [9] Group 5 - China Gas has established a strong presence in Guangxi, with nearly 15,000 kilometers of pipeline and over 3 million users, laying a solid foundation for expansion into ASEAN markets [12] - The company aims to leverage its experience in Guangxi to enter emerging markets in Southeast Asia, exploring cross-border energy cooperation [14]

Core Viewpoint - After four months of consolidation, China Water (00855) is expected to enter a new market phase due to strong market conditions and its own operational improvements [1][2]. Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since April, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 33% in less than five months, reaching a peak of 25,918 points on August 25, the highest in nearly four years [1]. - The strong market performance is attributed to three main drivers: valuation recovery, policy benefits, and significant inflows of southbound capital, which have exceeded HKD 970 billion year-to-date [1]. - Southbound capital is particularly favoring high-dividend assets, with a notable focus on sectors like banking, energy, and utilities [1][2]. Company Developments - China Water has seen increased shareholder activity, with notable investments from Great Wall Life Insurance and TaiKang Life, as well as an increase in shares held by ORIX Corporation to 20.28% [2]. - Despite the recent market focus on technology sectors driven by AI, there is a noticeable shift towards utility sectors, with public utilities seeing a net inflow of HKD 10.23 million in recent days [2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, China Water's total revenue decreased by 9.4% to HKD 11.656 billion, primarily due to a decline in urban water supply service revenue [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 1.8% to HKD 5.257 billion, indicating a slight growth in real profitability [3]. - The company improved its gross margin by 0.7 percentage points to 37.8%, with profit margins in urban water supply, pipeline drinking water, and environmental sectors also showing improvements [3]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Capital expenditures decreased by HKD 1.9 billion to HKD 3.4 billion, leading to a positive free cash flow for the first time [4]. - The dividend payout ratio increased by 12 percentage points to 42%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]. Future Outlook - China Water has 97.7 million tons per day of capacity under construction, expected to be operational by fiscal year 2026, which will enhance water sales [4]. - The acceleration of water price adjustment projects is anticipated to provide new momentum for the company's urban water supply business, with several projects already approved for price increases [5]. - Analysts predict a rapid recovery in net profit for fiscal year 2026, with estimates suggesting a growth of over 27% to HKD 1.372 billion [5]. Investment Potential - Given the positive outlook and high dividend yield, China Water is positioned to benefit from the increasing allocation of southbound capital towards high-dividend assets [6]. - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for China Water, projecting a target price of HKD 7.8, indicating a potential upside of nearly 30% from the closing price of HKD 6.21 on August 29 [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Water Affairs (00855) is currently valued at a significant discount compared to its peers, with a target price of HKD 7.80 and a "Buy" rating from CITIC Securities, reflecting a 20% valuation discount based on a target PE of 10x for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 37.8% in FY2025, with notable increases in profitability across all business segments, including urban water supply, pipeline drinking water, and environmental protection [2] - The company’s sales, management, and financial expense ratios showed mixed changes, with financial expenses increasing due to a high proportion of US dollar debt, but there is potential for reduction through debt restructuring and a declining interest rate environment [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - In FY2025, the company commissioned 81.7 million tons per day of new water production capacity, leading to a 7.0% increase in water sales volume to 1.5 billion tons, with further growth expected as additional capacity comes online in FY2026 [3] - The company has implemented water price adjustments in several projects, with expectations that total adjustments could exceed 1 million tons per day, benefiting from ongoing reforms in water pricing across major cities [3] Group 3: Cash Flow and Dividends - For the first time since 2020, the company achieved positive free cash flow of HKD 1.58 billion in FY2025, supported by a reduction in capital expenditures [4] - The company maintained its dividend at HKD 0.28 per share, with a 12 percentage point increase in the payout ratio to 42%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Water Affairs (00855.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the core operational profit is steadily growing, with a cash flow turning point already evident. The decline in FY2025 performance is primarily due to one-time impairment impacts, while the core operational business remains robust [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at HKD 12,200 million, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,075 million, down 29.92% year-on-year [1][7] - The main business revenue is HKD 11,656 million, reflecting a 9.4% decline year-on-year, mainly due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [1][7] - The report details segment performance: - Urban water supply revenue is HKD 7,498 million, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly up by 0.1% [1] - Direct drinking water revenue is HKD 657 million, down 61.9%, with segment profit down 58.9% [1] - Environmental segment revenue is HKD 1,523 million, up 42.2%, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [1] - Total construction revenue is HKD 664 million, down 19.7%, with segment profit down 9.3% [1] - Property revenue is HKD 361 million, with segment profit up 16.5% [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 1,372 million for FY2026, HKD 1,387 million for FY2027, and HKD 1,415 million for FY2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times [1][7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from HKD 53.3 billion in FY2024 to HKD 34 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 20 billion for FY2026 [1][7] - The dividend per share for FY2025 is projected to remain stable at HKD 0.28, with a payout ratio of 42.5% and a dividend yield of 4.65% [1][7]

Core Insights - The project in Yinan Town, Xiaoshan District, marks the first pipeline drinking water project in a resettlement community in Hangzhou and serves as a benchmark project for China Gas Holdings Limited in Zhejiang [2] - The pipeline drinking water system provides purified drinking water directly to residents' homes, addressing previous issues of poor water quality and supply in the area [2] Group 1 - The pipeline drinking water project utilizes a closed-loop circulation network to deliver water that meets health standards, ensuring the removal of impurities, bacteria, viruses, and heavy metals [2] - Compared to bottled water and community water stations, the pipeline system offers 24-hour circulating fresh water supply, making it safer, healthier, more convenient, economical, and intelligent [2] - The project aims to reduce household costs associated with purchasing bottled water [2] Group 2 - After the project commenced, it will adhere to both national and corporate internal control standards, establishing a comprehensive monitoring system with monthly public water quality reports [3] - The project includes 24/7 professional operation and maintenance services, leveraging a smart water management platform to ensure rapid fault response and same-day repair services [3] - The billing process is designed to be transparent and accessible, offering multiple payment methods to ensure residents feel secure and informed about their water usage [3]