机构：西部证券 研究员：孙寅/陈静 核心结论 +3.0%/+8.4%/+3.0%；归母净利润分别为7.61、8.94、9.64亿美元，同比-17.6%/+17.4%/+7.8%，对应EPS 分别为8.53、10.01、10.80港元，BPS分别为76.70、83.21、90.23港元，对应ROE水平分别为11.53%、 12.53%、12.45% 风险提示：利率风险、地缘政治冲突风险、上游飞机交付延期风险、法律与会计政策风险。 航空业景气度攀升，供给紧缺推动飞机租金上升。2020年疫情影响下全球航空市场景气度骤减，但国际 航空市场自2021年后开始修复，2023年后强势反弹：截至2025H，全球ASK已修复至疫情前水平，航空 市场需求保持稳定。2024年波音因安全事故、监管收紧及工人罢工等问题，交付量不及预期，带来全球 飞机供给短缺，主流窄体机空客A320和宽体机波音737飞机租金价格呈现稳步上升态势，且预计未来仍 将延续。 年轻化机队+长期租约构成中银航空租赁核心竞争力，负债结构动态调整，息差有望扩大。跟渤海租赁 及中国飞机租赁相比，中银航空租赁拥有最年轻的机队及长期的租约，兼具成本与流动性优势，机队规 模 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to BOC Aviation (02588.HK) [6] Core Views - BOC Aviation is positioned to benefit from the rising aviation industry and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a fleet of 483 aircraft, ranking fifth globally among aircraft leasing companies. The company is expected to see revenue growth from its global airline customer base and a decrease in funding costs due to lower interest rates, leading to an expansion of profit margins [2][6] - The aviation market is recovering strongly post-pandemic, with global available seat kilometers (ASK) returning to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025. A shortage of aircraft supply due to delivery delays from Boeing and Airbus is expected to drive rental prices upward [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - BOC Aviation, a leading aircraft leasing company backed by Bank of China, operates in 46 countries and regions, serving 88 airlines. The company has shown resilience and growth since its establishment in 1993 and its listing in Hong Kong in 2016 [22][23] Industry Analysis - The aviation leasing market is characterized by high concentration, with the top 20 companies holding a significant market share. The industry is currently in a recovery phase, with demand for air travel increasing, particularly in Europe and North America, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to drive future growth [36][39][43] Competitive Advantages - BOC Aviation boasts a young fleet and long-term lease agreements, providing cost and liquidity advantages. The company is dynamically adjusting its debt structure to optimize financing costs, which are expected to decline as interest rates fall [3][12] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for BOC Aviation from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $26.34 billion, $28.54 billion, and $29.39 billion, with corresponding net profits of $7.61 billion, $8.94 billion, and $9.64 billion. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.53, 10.01, and 10.80 HKD respectively [4][12][13] Valuation and Target Price - The report suggests a target price of 84.37 HKD for BOC Aviation, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.1 times, reflecting the company's strong position in the recovering aviation market and the anticipated decrease in funding costs [16]