证券研究报告 港股通 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 3Q25：机队保持迭代 2025 年 10 月 11 日│中国香港 多元金融 中银航空租赁（BOCA）披露了 3Q25 运营数据。BOCA 机队仍保持了较快 的迭代速度，3Q25 交付飞机 11 架，出售飞机 10 架，自有机队数量相比 2Q25 提升 1 架至 442 架。公司飞机出售和交付数量连续两个季度不少于 10 架，在飞机快速迭代的背后，是上游飞机制造商产能的改善。我们认为 产能改善将有助于下游租赁商的资本开支投放和机队扩张，公司飞机资产规 模有望增长。在负债端，公司 3Q25 发行了 5 亿美元 5.5 年期债券，票面利 率 4.25%，比 5 年期美债利率高 58bps，利差创新低。当前 5 年期美债收 益率在 3.7%上下波动，年内美联储或再度降息，有望缓解 BOCA 负债成本 的上行压力。考虑到公司资负两端的向好情况，我们预计公司25年核心ROE 有望达到 11%，在 24 年 10.5%的基础上改善，维持公司"买入"评级。 飞机制造产能改善的趋势仍在延续 3Q25 空客的月均交付数量达到 67 架，相比 2Q25 的 57 架和 3Q ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 BOC AVIATION LIMITED 中銀航空租賃有限公司* （於新加坡共和國註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：2588 截至2025年9月30日止第三季度營運資料 中銀航空租賃有限公司（「本公司」）公佈其截至2025年9月30日止第三季度的營運交 易情況。 投資組合及交易概要 * 僅供識別 – 1 – | 資產類型 | 自有 | 代管 | 已訂購2 | 總數 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 空客A220系列 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 23 | | 空客A320CEO系列 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 64 | | 空客A320NEO系列 | 148 | 0 | 211 | 359 | | 空客A330CEO系列 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | | 空客A330NEO系列 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | | 空客A350系列 | 9 | 0 | 0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The aircraft leasing industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, leading to rising aircraft values and rental rates, with strong demand for leasing continuing amidst supply chain constraints and skilled labor shortages [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Aircraft manufacturers are facing production capacity limitations due to supply chain issues, skilled labor shortages, and raw material supply disruptions, while demand for aircraft remains robust [1]. - The tightening supply-demand situation is expected to benefit leading aircraft leasing companies, which are experiencing stable aircraft deliveries during this upcycle [1]. Group 2: Company Strengths - The company has a strong management team with over 26 years of experience in banking, leasing, and aviation, which enhances its fleet management capabilities and helps mitigate cyclical risks in the aviation industry [1]. - The company has maintained profitability for 31 consecutive years since its establishment, with a steady growth trend in aircraft business revenue, primarily driven by operating lease rental income, which has consistently accounted for over 70% of total revenue [1]. Group 3: Financial Position - Backed by its major shareholder, Bank of China, the company enjoys significant financing cost advantages and strong capital acquisition capabilities, with a high credit rating relative to peers [1][2]. - Approximately 30% of the company's debt consists of floating-rate bonds, positioning it to benefit from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 4: Performance Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $2.533 billion, $2.668 billion, and $2.817 billion for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.9%, +5.3%, and +5.6% respectively [2]. - Projected net profits for the same period are $699 million, $766 million, and $840 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -24.31%, +9.56%, and +9.66% respectively [2]. - The company’s target price is set at HKD 91.70, with a target price-to-book ratio of 1.20x for 2025, reflecting an anticipated improvement in valuation amid favorable industry conditions and reduced financing costs [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 91.70 based on a projected PB of 1.20x for 2025 [5][3]. Core Views - The aircraft leasing industry is experiencing upward momentum due to a supply-demand gap driving aircraft values and rental rates higher, with sustained strong demand for leasing [1][2]. - The company has a strong fleet management capability, with a management team that has extensive experience in banking, leasing, and aviation, allowing it to effectively navigate cyclical risks in the aviation industry [1][2]. - The company benefits from a significant cost advantage in financing due to its backing by the Bank of China, maintaining a high credit rating and lower bond yield spreads compared to peers [2]. Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Dynamics - Aircraft manufacturers are facing production capacity constraints due to supply chain issues, skilled labor shortages, and material supply disruptions, leading to longer delivery times and a tight supply situation [13][14]. - Global air passenger demand continues to grow, with strong load factors reported, indicating robust market conditions for aircraft leasing [19][21]. - The limited availability of aircraft for leasing is driving up market values and rental rates, with new aircraft rental rates surpassing pre-pandemic levels [24][31]. Company Strengths - The company has maintained profitability for 31 consecutive years since its establishment, demonstrating resilience and strong operational capabilities [40]. - The management team has an average of over 26 years of experience, which is crucial for navigating the cyclical nature of the aircraft leasing industry [47][48]. - The fleet has been steadily expanding, with a focus on mainstream aircraft types, and the company has a significant order backlog, ensuring future growth [55][60]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of USD 2.533 billion in 2025, with a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year, followed by growth in subsequent years [4][3]. - Net profit is expected to be USD 699 million in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 24.31% year-on-year, but with a recovery anticipated in the following years [4][3]. - The company’s financing costs are expected to improve due to a significant portion of its debt being floating rate, which may benefit from potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperforming the market [1] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering capacity, but the number of grounded aircraft remains high. Supply chain and labor shortages continue to impact production, leading to delivery delays. From January to July 2025, Boeing and Airbus delivered only 701 aircraft, with a monthly average of about 100 aircraft, which is 74.6% of the peak monthly delivery of 134 aircraft in 2018. Meanwhile, aircraft order demand remains strong, with backlogged orders at historical highs [2][4][6]. - Global aviation market demand continues to grow, with the global passenger load factor reaching a new high for the year. The global air passenger volume is on the rise, with all regions showing growth in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK). The Latin America region leads with a 7.2% year-on-year increase, followed by Asia-Pacific and the Middle East with increases of 5.5% and 5.4%, respectively. International routes are performing strongly, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions [2][13][17]. - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' capacity is recovering, it still struggles to meet the ongoing expansion in aircraft demand. Aircraft leasing companies are seeing high demand for orders, with limited available slots in the coming two years. The Asia-Pacific aviation market has significant growth potential, providing broader development space for Chinese aircraft leasing companies. Compared to global leasing leader AerCap, Chinese leasing companies are currently undervalued and have higher order elasticity, making them worthy of attention [2][6][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to Tighten - Boeing's average monthly delivery has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's monthly delivery is slightly below last year's level. As of the end of July 2025, Boeing delivered 328 aircraft and Airbus delivered 373 aircraft, with average monthly deliveries of approximately 47 and 53 aircraft, respectively [5]. - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historical highs, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 699 and 501 aircraft, respectively, this year. As of July 2025, the total backlog was 15,262 aircraft [6]. 2. Civil Aviation Passenger Demand Update - Global air passenger volume (RPK) increased by 4.0% year-on-year in July 2025, with global capacity (ASK) increasing by 4.4%. The global passenger load factor reached 85.5% [13][17]. - All regions experienced growth in air passenger volume, with the domestic market in China showing steady performance, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in passenger volume [23][24]. 3. Aircraft Leasing Company Dynamics - The average remaining lease term for China’s leasing companies is relatively long, with China Aircraft Leasing Company showing significant improvement in fleet age to 6.3 years. The average remaining lease term for China’s leasing companies is 7.9 years, ensuring long-term stability for their contracts [38][43]. - Aircraft rental prices are rising, leading to improved rental yield for leasing companies. China’s leasing companies maintain rental yields above 10%, with financing costs relatively low for China’s leasing companies at 4.5% [44].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that China Aircraft Leasing's profit for the first half of the year increased by 7% year-on-year to HKD 140 million, driven by cost improvements and significant contributions from aircraft disposals [1] Financial Performance - The company plans to deliver 15 new aircraft in the second half of the year, which is expected to support rental income as the fleet size recovers [1] - The introduction of a profit forecast of HKD 475 million for 2026 reflects the company's growth expectations [1] Cost Management - The company aims to optimize its debt and capital structure through diversified financing and reducing leverage to lower financing costs, which will enhance profitability [1] - The report highlights that cost improvements will be a core driver of growth moving forward [1] Asset Management - Accelerating aircraft asset disposals is anticipated to help realize asset premiums and support profit performance [1] - The contribution from aircraft disposals is noted as a significant incremental benefit to the company's financial results [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price has been raised by 22% to HKD 5, maintaining an "outperform" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Aircraft Leasing (01848) maintains its 25-year profit forecast while introducing a profit estimate of HKD 475 million for 2026, with a target price increase of 22% to HKD 5.0, reflecting a strong market outlook and a recommendation to outperform the industry [1]. Company Status - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in profit to HKD 140 million for the first half of 2025, driven by cost improvements and significant contributions from aircraft disposals. The ongoing high market demand and the company's global strategy suggest a positive long-term profit recovery [2]. Mid-term Growth Drivers - **Revenue Side**: - Leasing revenue decreased by 14.1% year-on-year to HKD 1.91 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue, primarily due to aircraft disposals. The company plans to deliver 15 new aircraft in the second half of the year while selling 6-10 aircraft, which is expected to support rental income [3]. - Net income from aircraft transactions surged by 1060.2% year-on-year to HKD 290 million, corresponding to the sale of 19 aircraft, indicating a strong asset value in a high-demand market [3]. - **Cost Side**: - The company reduced interest-bearing liabilities by 11.0% year-on-year, and interest expenses fell by 17.6% to HKD 1.1 billion, leading to a decrease in leverage from 9.1x at the end of 2024 to 8.4x. The focus on diversified financing and debt reduction is expected to enhance profitability [3]. Long-term Support Factors - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company had a fleet of 181 aircraft, with 151 owned and 30 managed. The order book stands at 114 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future growth amid tightening supply chains. The company is also expanding its global customer base, with 33% of aircraft leased to overseas airlines, reinforcing its growth potential [4].

Company Overview - China Aircraft Leasing (01848) maintains its 25-year profit forecast and introduces a profit estimate of HKD 475 million for 2026, currently trading at 0.79x/0.75x 25e/26e P/B [1] - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in profit for the first half of 2025, reaching HKD 140 million, driven by cost improvements and significant contributions from aircraft disposals [1] Revenue Insights - Leasing revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 14.1% year-on-year to HKD 1.91 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue, primarily due to a reduction in fleet size from aircraft disposals [1] - The company plans to deliver 15 new aircraft in the second half of the year while selling 6-10 aircraft, which is expected to support rental income performance [1] - Net income from aircraft transactions surged by 1060.2% year-on-year to HKD 290 million, corresponding to the sale of 19 aircraft, indicating a strong market for aircraft assets [1] Cost Management - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 11.0% year-on-year, resulting in a 17.6% decrease in interest expenses to HKD 1.1 billion, with the leverage ratio declining from 9.1x at the end of 2024 to 8.4x [2] - Future strategies will focus on diversifying financing and reducing leverage to optimize debt and capital structure, thereby lowering financing costs [2] Order Book and Client Base - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company had a fleet of 181 aircraft, with 151 owned and 30 managed, maintaining a leading position in high liquidity narrow-body aircraft [3] - The order book stands at 114 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future growth amid tightening supply chains [3] - The company is expanding its global customer base while solidifying its leading position in the Chinese market, with 33% of aircraft leased to overseas airlines [3]

Company Overview - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in profit for 1H25, reaching 140 million HKD, driven by cost improvements and significant contributions from aircraft disposals [1] - The company plans to deliver 15 new aircraft in the second half of the year while selling 6-10 aircraft, which is expected to support rental income performance [1] Revenue and Income - Rental income decreased by 14.1% year-on-year to 1.91 billion HKD, accounting for 79% of total revenue, primarily due to a reduction in fleet size from aircraft disposals [1] - Net income from aircraft transactions surged by 1060.2% year-on-year to 290 million HKD, corresponding to the sale of 19 aircraft, an increase of 14 aircraft compared to the previous year [1] Cost Management - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 11.0% year-on-year, resulting in interest expenses decreasing by 17.6% to 1.1 billion HKD [1] - The company's leverage ratio improved from 9.1x at the end of 2024 to 8.4x, with a focus on optimizing debt and capital structure to lower financing costs [1] Fleet and Orders - As of the end of 1H25, the company had a fleet of 181 aircraft, with 151 owned and 30 managed, maintaining a leading position in high liquidity narrow-body aircraft [2] - The company has a robust order book of 114 aircraft, which supports future growth amid tightening supply chains [2] Market Position and Valuation - The company is maintaining its 2025 profit forecast and introducing a profit estimate of 475 million HKD for 2026, currently trading at 0.79x/0.75x P/B for 2025/2026 [2] - The target price has been raised by 22% to 5.0 HKD, reflecting an upward adjustment based on sustained high market conditions for aircraft [2]

Financing Progress - Avolon Holdings Limited plans to issue a total of $1.25 billion in senior unsecured notes through its wholly-owned subsidiary Avolon Holdings Funding Limited [2] - The notes have a coupon rate of 4.950% and will mature on October 15, 2032 [2] - The proceeds will primarily be used to repurchase certain previously issued senior unsecured notes and for general corporate purposes, including repaying future maturing debts [2] Loan Utilization - Avolon has an authorized loan limit of up to $10.5 billion for 2025, which includes the current financing [3] - As of the announcement date, Avolon has utilized $2.845 billion of the authorized loan limit, excluding the current financing amount [3] Guarantee Progress - Avolon and its subsidiaries will provide joint and several guarantees for the $1.25 billion note issuance [5] - The guarantee is effective until the debt obligations under the financing agreement are fulfilled [6] - The total authorized guarantee limit for Avolon and its subsidiaries is also set at $10.5 billion for 2025 [6] Guarantee Utilization - As of the announcement date, Avolon and its subsidiaries have utilized $2.845 billion of the authorized guarantee limit for 2025, excluding the current guarantee [7] - The cumulative guarantee amount over the past 12 months is approximately ¥60.73 billion, accounting for about 21.20% of the company's audited total assets for 2024 [8]