Core Viewpoint - GE Aerospace has reported strong third-quarter earnings driven by robust demand in air travel, leading to an upward revision of its full-year performance expectations for the second consecutive quarter [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a 26% increase in adjusted revenue, reaching $11.3 billion, surpassing market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $1.66, also exceeding market forecasts [1] - GE Aerospace raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance from a previous range of $5.60 to $5.80 to a new range of $6.00 to $6.20, with market expectations at $5.92 [1] - The adjusted revenue growth rate forecast was increased from a median of 14%-16% to a new range of 17%-20% [1] - Operating profit expectations were raised from a maximum of $8.5 billion to a new range of $8.65 billion to $8.85 billion; free cash flow expectations were also increased from $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion to a new range of $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion [1] Market Position and Strategy - Under CEO Larry Culp's leadership, GE Aerospace has shown sustained growth since the completion of its three-way split last year, with all business segments reporting revenue and profit growth [2] - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary of the global recovery in air travel, with increasing demand for maintenance services and new engines [2] - GE Aerospace has secured significant orders, including the largest wide-body aircraft engine order in its history with Qatar Airways, involving the delivery of over 400 engines [2] - Culp has advocated for reducing trade barriers in the aerospace industry, emphasizing the benefits of free trade for the sector and the creation of a trade surplus for the U.S. [2]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights a significant increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a total of 2.433 billion trips made, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [1] Group 1: Travel Volume and Trends - The total cross-regional travel volume during the eight-day holiday reached 2.433 billion trips, with an average daily increase of 6.3% year-on-year and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [1] - The breakdown of travel modes shows that railway, road, civil aviation, and water transport accounted for 154 million, 2.248 billion, 19.14 million, and 11.66 million trips respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.6%, 6.6%, 3.3%, and 4.1% [1] - Self-driving trips remained the dominant mode of travel, with an average of 243 million trips per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and accounting for approximately 80% of total travel volume [1] Group 2: Aviation Performance - Despite a high base from the previous year, civil aviation passenger flow still saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3% during the holiday, with an average daily passenger flow of 1.69 million flights, marking a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year and a 15.4% increase compared to 2019 [2] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class during the holiday was 849 yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a minor decrease of 1.4% compared to 2019 [3] Group 3: Travel Behavior and Preferences - There was a notable increase in long-distance travel orders, with domestic long-distance travel orders rising by 3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - International travel saw a significant uptick, with outbound ticket bookings for popular destinations increasing by over 30% year-on-year, particularly in regions like Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [4] Group 4: Tourism Revenue and Consumer Spending - Domestic tourism during the holiday reached 888 million trips, with total spending amounting to 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [5] - The average tourism expenditure per person was 911.1 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year but recovering to 97.4% of the level seen in 2019 [5] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to enter a travel off-season, but there may be a recovery in business travel demand compared to the previous year [6] - The report suggests that if travel demand continues to grow steadily, it could lead to a recovery in airline revenues, with potential for significant profit growth for airlines like Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][5] Core Insights - The 2025 National Day holiday saw a record high in travel volume, with a total of 2.433 billion trips made, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [4] - Domestic air travel maintained growth despite high base figures from the previous year, with an average daily passenger volume increase of 3.3% year-on-year during the holiday period [4] - Average ticket prices remained stable, with domestic average ticket prices at 942 yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, while the oil-adjusted ticket price increased by 1.2% [4] - Long-distance travel orders increased significantly, with outbound travel seeing a notable rise, particularly to destinations in East Asia and Southeast Asia [4] - Domestic tourism numbers and revenue showed slight increases, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the airline industry, highlighting strong private travel demand and the potential for airline performance recovery due to stable demand and decreasing operational costs [4] Summary by Sections Travel Volume - The total cross-regional travel volume during the holiday reached 2.433 billion trips, with daily averages showing significant increases compared to previous years [4] Air Travel - Domestic air travel saw a daily average increase of 3.3% year-on-year, with a total of 135,000 flights operated during the holiday [4] Ticket Pricing - Average domestic ticket prices were stable, with a slight decrease in overall prices but an increase in oil-adjusted prices [4] Long-Distance and Outbound Travel - There was a marked increase in long-distance travel orders, with outbound travel to popular destinations seeing significant growth [4] Domestic Tourism - Domestic tourism numbers and spending showed slight growth, with per capita spending nearly returning to pre-pandemic levels [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to expected performance recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry's profitability framework is influenced by capacity supply, travel demand, load factor, ticket price performance, fuel prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, which ultimately affect company profit performance [16][2] - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, while international routes have largely recovered to 2019 levels [3][31] - Supply chain disruptions are delaying aircraft deliveries, leading to a contraction in capacity supply [4][6] Summary by Sections Demand - Domestic air passenger traffic increased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with high load factors sustained [3] - International passenger traffic has nearly returned to 2019 levels, with recovery rates of 106.3% for passenger volume and 101.0% for turnover by May 2025 [31][33] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to enhance public leisure travel demand, thereby increasing aviation travel demand [3][37] Supply - The growth rate of capacity introduction is slowing, and aircraft leasing prices are rising due to ongoing supply chain issues [4] - The average fleet utilization rate is expected to have limited improvement during peak seasons, with a significant gap remaining compared to 2019 levels [5] - The number of grounded aircraft for maintenance has increased, exacerbating capacity constraints [6] Supply and Demand Balance - The industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with load factors returning to high levels, and ticket prices are expected to rise during peak seasons [6] - In 2023, ticket prices reached historical highs, but are projected to decline in 2024 before rebounding in 2025 [7] - Airlines are likely to benefit from rising ticket prices and declining fuel costs, leading to high earnings elasticity [8] Revenue and Cost Sensitivity - Airlines can maximize revenue through high load factors and unit revenue per route, with domestic capacity growth slowing and international capacity gradually recovering [8] - Fuel cost pressures are expected to ease, with average fuel prices declining year-on-year [8] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in ticket prices could significantly boost profits for major airlines [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook for the aviation industry, emphasizing the potential for improved supply-demand dynamics and ticket price recovery during peak seasons [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply in the aviation industry is gradually contracting, with a narrowing decline in ticket prices. An improvement in supply-demand dynamics is expected during the peak travel season [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing a high passenger load factor, with limited room for recovery in utilization rates. The supply contraction is intensifying, leading to a trend of narrowing year-on-year ticket price declines, which may improve the industry’s supply-demand relationship [14][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to the anticipated recovery in air travel demand during the peak season [3][14]. Industry Supply Contraction and Ticket Price Trends - The industry’s passenger load factor remains high, with an increasing proportion of grounded aircraft. In April 2025, the industry’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 8.1% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [4][16]. - The average ticket price in June 2025 was down 5.9% year-on-year, with the average domestic ticket price for 2025 year-to-date at 837 RMB, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5][26]. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 and Q2 2025 was 5,952 RMB/ton and 5,385 RMB/ton, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% and 17.0%. The Brent crude oil price averaged 67.95 USD/barrel as of June 16, 2025, down 18.1% year-on-year [6][37][38]. Airline Capacity and Load Factors - In May 2025, airlines increased their international capacity, with domestic load factors remaining high. The overall ASK for major airlines showed a year-on-year increase, with international routes recovering faster than domestic routes [45][46]. - The report indicates that the passenger load factors for domestic routes exceeded those of 2019, with significant increases noted for China Eastern and China Southern Airlines on international routes [45][47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season due to strong demand [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines as potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the passenger load factor remains high, with strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, leading to a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3][4]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with ticket prices in May showing a decline of only 3.0% compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The average domestic ticket price from the beginning of 2025 until May 18 is 847 yuan, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year decrease [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by fleet issues, with potential delays in aircraft introductions due to supply chain problems and limited short-term improvements in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - The demand side shows sustained growth in travel demand during peak seasons, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rise in ticket prices [3][4]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines experienced a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47][49]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft in April, adding five aircraft to its fleet [47][48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has shown a continuous year-on-year decline, with May's average price at 5,385 yuan per ton, down 19.0% from the previous year [41][41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41][41]. 6. Exchange Rate Stability - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1916 as of May 19, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of 2024 [41][41].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand during the peak season, with potential recovery in ticket prices as demand continues to grow during holidays like Spring Festival and Qingming [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply chain issues and the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" may further slow down aircraft introductions [3][4]. - Short-term increases in utilization rates are limited due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - Domestic flight load factors remain high, indicating limited capacity for overall peak season growth [3][4]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand is expected to continue growing, particularly during the Spring Festival and Qingming holidays, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential recovery in low ticket prices [3][4]. Industry Performance Data - In March 2025, the industry saw a year-on-year increase in ASK and RPK of 4.5% and 6.7%, respectively, with a load factor of 83.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price was 722 yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with Q1 ticket prices showing a decline of 12% [4][5]. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 was 5,952 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year, while the price in April dropped to 5,602 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15.4% [5][6]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged $74.98 per barrel in Q1 2025, down 8.3% year-on-year, with April's average at $66.81 per barrel, down 24.9% [6]. Capacity and Fleet Management - Airlines are reallocating capacity to international routes, with domestic ASK decreasing but load factors improving [7]. - In March, China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 13 planes, while other airlines also saw varying increases [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with a slight year-on-year decline in domestic capacity in January and February. The recent decline in ticket prices has narrowed, and if travel demand continues to grow, ticket prices may turn positive year-on-year in the second and third quarters [3][10] - The supply growth rate for capacity in 2025 is expected to slow down, and with ticket prices at low levels following significant declines in 2024, there is potential for airline performance to rebound with economic recovery and increased travel demand. Factors such as declining oil prices and stable exchange rates also suggest upward potential for airline profits [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - The monthly passenger load factor remains high, with January 2025 data showing a year-on-year increase in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) of 13.7% and 18.1%, respectively. The load factor reached 82.8%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] - Domestic line turnover increased by 10% year-on-year in January 2025, while international and regional lines recovered to 107.5% of 2019 levels [18] Ticket Pricing - After the Spring Festival, the year-on-year difference in ticket prices has gradually narrowed. As of early March 2025, the average ticket price was 560 yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The weekly average ticket prices showed a decreasing trend in year-on-year declines, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing [20][21] Oil and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 was 5,952 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year. Brent crude oil prices were stable, with a settlement price of $71.07 per barrel as of March 17, 2025, a decrease of 4.8% from the end of 2024. The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1733 as of March 18, 2025, a slight decrease of 0.21% from the end of 2024 [5][32] Airline Operations - In January and February 2025, domestic airline capacity saw a slight year-on-year decline, while the passenger load factor remained high. Most airlines reported international capacity and turnover exceeding 2019 levels, although there were still discrepancies in load factors [38][40] - In February, China Eastern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 5 aircraft, while other airlines also saw increases. Cumulatively, China Eastern, China Southern, and Air China saw net increases of 8, 6, and 4 aircraft, respectively [52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The industry passenger load factor has recovered to 2019 levels, with January ticket prices showing a slight year-on-year increase [2][8] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate that the passenger load factor for the entire year of 2024 has returned to 2019 levels, with significant growth in both capacity and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) compared to 2019 [8][14] - The average one-way ticket price in January 2025 was 902 RMB, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 29.6% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [3][17] - The average price of aviation kerosene in January and February 2025 was 5910 RMB per ton, a decrease of 10.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - In December 2024, the industry ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK increased by 8.1% and 9.7% respectively compared to December 2019, with a passenger load factor of 82.0%, exceeding the same period in 2019 by 1.2 percentage points [8][14] - Cumulatively for 2024, the ASK and RPK increased by 10.2% and 10.3% respectively compared to 2019, with an average load factor of 83.3% [8][14] Ticket Price Situation - The average one-way ticket price in January 2025 was 902 RMB, with domestic ticket prices averaging 865 RMB (up 2.9% year-on-year) and international ticket prices averaging 1812 RMB (up 6.5% year-on-year) [3][17] Fuel Price and Exchange Rate - The average price of aviation kerosene in January and February 2025 was 5910 RMB per ton, down 10.1% from the same period in 2024 [21][22] - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1697 as of February 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.26% from the end of 2024 [21][22] Airline Operations - In January 2025, domestic airline capacity saw a slight year-on-year increase, with passenger load factors remaining high [4][26] - Major airlines introduced new aircraft, with China Eastern Airlines leading with six new aircraft, resulting in a net increase of four aircraft [4][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the recovery of air travel, recommending a focus on airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to expected performance elasticity with rising ticket prices and stable fuel costs [5][45]