Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. trade delegation canceled its visit to India, casting doubt on ongoing tariff negotiations [1][4] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50% [1][5] - The cancellation of the trade talks is expected to delay the bilateral trade agreement that was aimed to be finalized by September-October [4][10] Group 2: India's Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi stated that India will not compromise on its national interests despite U.S. tariff pressures [2][8] - Modi emphasized the protection of farmers and laborers' interests in his Independence Day speech, promoting self-reliance and domestic production [8][9] - The Indian government is actively pursuing trade negotiations through multiple channels, indicating the importance of the U.S. as a trade partner [4][10] Group 3: Impact on Industries - The increased tariffs have led to significant disruptions in Indian exports, particularly in the metal products and pharmaceutical sectors [10][9] - Indian exporters are facing challenges with canceled orders and financial difficulties due to the heightened tariffs [10] - The pharmaceutical industry, a key sector for Indian exports to the U.S., may face additional tariffs up to 250%, which could severely impact its operations [9]

Group 1 - The core theme of Prime Minister Modi's speech is "self-reliance," emphasizing the need for India to develop its own capabilities in defense, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence to respond to changing geopolitical dynamics [3][9] - Modi's vision includes a commitment to achieving energy independence and building industries in key sectors, with the first domestically manufactured chip expected to launch by the end of this year [7] - The Indian government aims to promote "Make in India" initiatives to enhance manufacturing, particularly benefiting small farmers, livestock breeders, and fishermen, while reforming the Goods and Services Tax to support small and medium enterprises [5][9] Group 2 - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. have prompted India to focus on self-sufficiency as a means to protect its interests, particularly in agriculture and industry [9] - Modi's vision for a developed India by 2047 is underpinned by the principle of self-reliance, which is seen as essential for economic resilience and growth [7] - The Indian government is navigating complex geopolitical challenges while striving to balance its domestic manufacturing goals with international trade relations [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff policies under the Trump administration, highlighting the implications for various countries and industries, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and the potential impacts on exports and economic growth. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations and Policies - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for tariff negotiations from July 9 to August 1, with President Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on imports from various countries, including Japan, which could reach 30-35% [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the U.S. House aims to reduce taxes and government spending, which is seen as part of Trump's economic strategy to boost domestic demand while increasing government revenue through tariffs [2][3] - The U.S. has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan, the EU, and India are ongoing, indicating a complex international trade landscape [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Exports and Industries - The article notes that the tariff situation has led to a surge in exports from China, with a 6% growth rate in exports from January to May, surpassing the previous year's growth [4] - Companies are experiencing pressure to expedite production due to uncertainty surrounding future tariffs, particularly in the electronic paper industry, which has seen significant demand from clients [5][6] - The "rush to export" phenomenon is highlighted, with estimates suggesting that approximately $24 billion in exports were preemptively shipped to the U.S. in anticipation of higher tariffs [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that while there has been a temporary boost in exports, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential economic pressures [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown signs of recovery, but new export orders remain below the growth threshold, indicating persistent challenges in the export sector [10][11] - The article suggests that the global trade environment will continue to impact China's economy, with a need for strategic policy adjustments to navigate the uncertainties ahead [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the future development of the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The new materials industry serves as a foundational industry, providing the material basis for other sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of identifying and tracking companies with strong core supply chains, research capabilities, and excellent management in key areas such as electronic information, new energy, biotechnology, and environmental protection [4][16]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - Recent developments include the lifting of U.S. export restrictions on chip design software to China, allowing companies like Siemens and Synopsys to resume full access for Chinese clients [6][24]. - Samsung Display and LG Display have begun procurement for the iPhone 17 series, with an expected production of approximately 110 million OLED panels [7][25]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key materials of interest are PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fiber [9]. - GE Aerospace has been granted permission to export jet engines to COMAC, which will supply engines for the C919 aircraft [10]. 3. New Energy Sector - Focus areas include photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [11]. - Major photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the domestic market [11]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Key areas of focus include synthetic biology and scientific services [12]. - A new synthetic biology research platform has been established to integrate AI with synthetic biology, aiming to enhance innovation and technology development [14]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus areas include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [15]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated inspections in several provinces to enhance environmental protection efforts [16]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights several key companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026, indicating a mix of "Buy" and "Hold" ratings based on their projected performance [17].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 4, 2023, the passenger car sales in June reached 2.032 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%[2] - The average number of domestic flights executed this week was 14,200, a month-on-month increase of 11.46%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,442.75, a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 4, 2023, the operating rate of blast furnaces was recorded at 83.44%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points[3] - The operating rate for PTA production was 79.13%, maintaining a high level[3] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires was 70.41%, a month-on-month decrease of 7.64 percentage points[3] Price Performance - As of July 4, 2023, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price rose by 2.43%[2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.25%, while WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.90%[3] - The prices of rebar and iron ore increased by 1.36% and 0.99% respectively this week[3] Fiscal Policy - This week, the issuance of ordinary government bonds reached 199.9 billion, with an issuance progress of 55.5%[3] - New special bonds (excluding debt replacement) amounted to 45.8 billion, with an issuance progress of 48.7%[3] Overseas Macro and Market - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion over ten years, potentially pushing the U.S. deficit rate to 7%[4] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls in June added 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in state and local government education jobs[4] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.0, slightly better than the expected 48.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing[4]

Core Viewpoint - China has not purchased crude oil from the United States for three consecutive months, marking the longest period since 2018, which has negatively impacted U.S. shale oil producers and raised concerns among American media [1]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Oil Industry - The decision by China to halt crude oil purchases from the U.S. adds further difficulties for American shale oil producers, who are already facing downward pressure on oil prices [1]. - As of June 27, the number of active drilling oil wells in the U.S. was only 432, a decrease of 6 from the previous week and a 47% year-over-year decline [1]. Group 2: U.S.-China Relations and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. media reports suggest that the shale oil interest groups are pressuring Trump to demand that China resume oil imports, indicating a potential shift in U.S. policy if goodwill is shown by the U.S. [3]. - Recent actions by the U.S. to ease restrictions on China, such as lifting export license requirements for chip design software and allowing the export of jet engines, may influence China's decision to consider resuming oil imports from the U.S. [5].

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce stated that both teams are working to implement the results of the London framework regarding the cancellation of trade restrictions between the US and China [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multiple measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks to promote the recovery of the real estate market [3] - The Chinese government plans to compress the originally scheduled two-day China-Europe leaders' meeting, with both sides agreeing to maintain communication on specific arrangements [3] International News - The US is set to issue a tariff letter with a floating range of 10%-70%, effective August 1, as part of trade negotiations [4] - The OPEC+ meeting has been moved up to Saturday, with expectations to agree on an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [4] - The US government has notified General Electric Aviation that it can resume supplying jet engines to China's COMAC [6]

Market Overview - On July 4, U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day, leading to a risk-off sentiment with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% and European blue-chip index STOXX 50 down over 1% [2] - European chip stocks fell, with ASML Holdings down approximately 2.6% [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU brandy, causing Remy Cointreau's stock to drop 7.2% intraday before recovering to close up 2% [2] - The 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK bond market remained weak with a cumulative rise of 5 basis points this week [2] - Gold prices rose nearly 0.6% amid increased risk aversion, while WTI crude oil dropped 1.5% due to expectations of significant OPEC+ production increases [2] - In Asia, A-shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3500 points, while the Hang Seng Index fell below 24000 points [2] Key News - The U.S. government informed General Electric Aviation that it can resume supplying jet engines to COMAC in China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [8] - President Trump announced plans to send tariff letters to trade partners, with rates potentially ranging from 60%-70% to 10%-20% [8] - The EU's trade negotiations with the U.S. have not reached a breakthrough, with ongoing discussions expected over the weekend [9] - Indonesia expressed confidence in reaching a "bold trade agreement" with the U.S., proposing zero tariffs on 70% of U.S. products [9] - India is preparing a strong response to U.S. auto tariffs, potentially imposing retaliatory tariffs due to the impact on its exports [10] Legislative Developments - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" bill, marking a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy towards tax cuts and increased defense spending, while cutting funding for healthcare and clean energy projects [11] - The bill is expected to severely impact Tesla's carbon credit revenue, which accounted for 39% of its net profit in 2024 [11] - Tesla is reportedly facing challenges with new model shortages, leading to increased pressure on sales [12] Market Sentiment - Bank of America indicated that the S&P 500 is nearing a sell signal, with the "Big Beautiful" bill raising the risk of a summer market bubble [13] - Iron ore prices rebounded by 4% this week, driven by strong demand from China, but Goldman Sachs warned that prices may struggle to exceed $100 per ton [13] Domestic and Overseas Macro - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in China is pushing for measures to stabilize the real estate market [14] - The U.S. Treasury's strategy to increase short-term bond issuance may undermine the Federal Reserve's independence and affect inflation control [15] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates, focusing on achieving a 2% inflation target [16]

Macro Dynamics - The U.S. has reportedly resumed the supply of jet engines to COMAC, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressing hope for healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Market Data - On July 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.36%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 14,285.58 billion yuan, an increase of about 1,188.01 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [7] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.64% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.33%. Resource and consumer stocks led the decline, while photovoltaic and innovative pharmaceuticals saw gains [8] Company Dynamics - Tesla announced a price reduction for the Model 3 in Hong Kong, with some models seeing tax-inclusive discounts of up to 18%, bringing the entry-level price down to 249,000 HKD [9] - Sunac China announced plans to issue shares to repay approximately 5.6 billion yuan in debt, aimed at alleviating liquidity pressure and improving financial conditions for long-term business recovery [12][13]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical point, attempting to break through the 3500 level, which has previously seen multiple failed attempts since last year's National Day, indicating a significant amount of trapped positions [1] - The market sentiment needs to align with bullish expectations, requiring substantial buying power and limited selling pressure to successfully breach this level [1][3] - The recent trading volume reached 1 trillion, but it was insufficient for a successful breakout, leading to a high close followed by a pullback [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June reported an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [4][5] - This data undermines the market's hopes for an interest rate cut in July, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy [5] Sector Performance - The banking sector, along with media, utilities, and steel industries, showed strong performance, while sectors like beauty care, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals faced declines [11] - The market capitalization reached 1.45 trillion, with over 4100 stocks declining [8] Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a significant tax and spending bill, which is expected to bolster economic support, with President Trump set to sign it [4][5] Company News - General Electric Aviation has received notification from the U.S. government to resume supplying jet engines to China's COMAC [6]