航空板块大涨，继续强调板块投资机会 三大航25年业绩预告，经营端大幅改善。 南航归母口径盈利，东航剔除递延所得税资产转回影响，利润总额转正。 经营端持续改善下，业绩修复弹性可期。 我们继续推荐航空板块机会，行业供给强约束，高客座率下高弹性或一触即发。 航空板块大涨，继续强调板块投资机会 2月2日春运正式开启，首日根据交通运输部数据，民航旅客量219万，同比+5.3%。 客座率、票价表现亮眼。 民航国内7日市场平均全票价为820元，同比+5.3%，国内7日客座率84.5%，同比+2.3%；跨境82.6%，同比+5.7%。 油汇边际利好：布油回落至66美元以下，离岸美元兑人民币6.94。 2月2日春运正式开启，首日根据交通运输部数据，民航旅客量219万，同比+5.3%。 客座率、票价表现亮眼。 民航国内7日市场平均全票价为820元，同比+5.3%，国内7日客座率84.5%，同比+2.3%；跨境82.6%，同比+5.7%。 油汇边际利好：布油回落至66美元以下，离岸美元兑人民币6.94。 ...

2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-18 亿，2024 年为- 42.26 亿；扣非归母净利-27 至 -33 亿，2024 年 为-49.83 亿。 计算2025Q4 归母净利为-34.03 至-39.03 亿，2024Q4 为-40.88 亿；2025Q4扣非归母净利为- 41.0 至-47.05 亿，2024Q4 为-44.46 亿。 利润总额实现盈利：公司预告2025 年利润总额为盈利2-3 亿，实现扭亏，而归母净利润为负，系公司报 告期内转回部分前期可抵扣亏损形成的递延所得税资产，增加所得税费用。 2025 年，公司持续优化航线网络布局，积极提升营销能力，不断创新服务品质，经营效益显著改善。 2025 年公司完成运输总周转量 279.81 亿吨公里，旅客运输量近1.50 亿人次，分别同比增长 10.82%和 6.68%。 客座率三大航中最高：全年ASK 同比增长6.75%，其中国内、国际分别增长2.02%、18.45%；RPK 同比 增长10.66%，国内、国际分别为5.95%、22.69%。 客座率达85.86%，同比提升3.04pct；国内、国际分别为87.28%、83.22%，同比提升3. ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国国航（601111）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 25 年递延所得税资产转回影响，归母净利亏损， 经营端持续改善，看好行业供需格局下龙头弹性 公司公布 2025 年业绩预告： 2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-19 亿，2024 年为-2.37 亿；扣非归母净利-19 至-27 亿，2024 年为-25.40 亿。 2025Q4 归母净利为-31.70 至-37.70 亿，2024Q4 为-15.99 亿；2025Q4 扣非归母 净利为-35.44 至-43.44 亿，2024Q4 为-29.72 亿。 公司归母净利润口径亏损，系公司于资产负债表日对递延所得税资产的账面 价值进行复核，相应转回部分递延所得税资产。参考中国东航预告，东航利润 总额实现盈利，但因递延所得税资产转回，增加所得税费用，归母净利润口径 同为负，但经营口径大幅改善。 风险提示：经济大幅下滑、油价大幅上涨、汇率大幅贬值。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国东航（600115）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 2025 年利润总额预计 2-3 亿，经营成果显著 改善，持续看好供给强约束下航空板块机会 公司公告 2025 年业绩预告： 2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-18 亿，2024 年为- 42.26 亿；扣非归母净 利-27 至 -33 亿，2024 年为-49.83 亿。 计算 2025Q4 归母净利为-34.03 至-39.03 亿，2024Q4 为-40.88 亿；2025Q4 扣非归母净利为- 41.0 至-47.05 亿，2024Q4 为-44.46 亿。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 132,120 | 138,744 | 151,120 | 160,527 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.2% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -4,226 | -1,489 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive outlook for the aviation sector in Hong Kong, driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival travel period, with a projected national civil aviation passenger transport volume of 95 million, averaging 2.38 million passengers daily, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [1] - The article notes that two peaks of passenger flow are expected around the Spring Festival, particularly due to the later timing of the holiday this year, with a single-day peak potentially reaching 2.6 million passengers [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China anticipates that the total number of flights during the Spring Festival will reach 780,000, averaging 19,400 flights per day, which is a 5% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities emphasizes three key factors that highlight investment opportunities in the aviation sector: the sustained low growth rate of aircraft introductions, structural improvements in aviation demand with stronger cross-border demand, and the current high passenger load factor indicating potential price elasticity [1] - The article mentions that since mid-September 2025, the willingness to travel for business is expected to return to an expansionary phase, further supporting the growth of the aviation sector [1] - The historical high passenger load factor suggests that the industry may experience an upward trend in pricing, with ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase since mid-September 2025, indicating a potential recovery in industry prosperity by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong aviation stocks continue to rise, driven by strong demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with predictions of increased passenger transport volume and flight operations [1] - China Southern Airlines rose nearly 3%, China Eastern Airlines increased by 2.11%, and Air China saw a 2.51% rise, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration forecasts that the national civil aviation passenger transport volume during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 95 million, averaging 2.38 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% [1] Group 2 - The Spring Festival is expected to create two peaks in passenger flow, particularly due to the later timing of the holiday this year, with a single-day peak potentially reaching 2.6 million passengers [1] - The aviation sector is highlighted as having investment opportunities based on three factors: low growth in aircraft introductions, structural improvement in aviation demand, and high seat occupancy rates indicating potential price elasticity [1] - The expected number of flights during the Spring Festival is 780,000, averaging 19,400 flights per day, which is a 5% year-on-year increase [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [61]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger load factor for listed airlines continues to improve, with Spring Airlines leading at 92.2% in December, and Air China showing the highest year-on-year increase [1]. - The report highlights a structural improvement in demand for the aviation industry, with a notable recovery in cross-border travel demand outpacing domestic demand [9]. - The report emphasizes the high elasticity of prices under high load factors, indicating potential for price increases as the industry recovers [9]. Summary by Sections 1) Domestic Routes - In December, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth was led by Spring Airlines at 16.4%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 6.8% and Air China at 4.2% [2]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth for December was also led by Spring Airlines at 17.7%, with Air China at 10.6% and China Southern Airlines at 6.9% [2]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, East China Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 10.7%, while Spring Airlines and East China Airlines both had RPK growth of 9.1% [2]. 2) International Routes - In December, China Southern Airlines led with an ASK growth of 25.8%, followed by East China Airlines at 9.4% and Air China at 4.1% [3]. - The RPK growth for December was also led by China Southern Airlines at 22.8%, with East China Airlines at 11.0% and Air China at 9.1% [3]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) showed the highest ASK growth at 37.6% and RPK growth at 43.5% [3]. 3) Regional Routes - In December, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 92.0%, while 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) experienced a decline of 20.2% [4]. - The RPK growth for December was again led by Spring Airlines at 97.5%, with 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) showing a decline of 15.9% [4]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, China Southern Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 3.1%, while Spring Airlines and 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) both showed significant declines [4]. 4) Passenger Load Factor - In December, Spring Airlines had a load factor of 91.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [5]. - For the cumulative data from January to December, Spring Airlines maintained a load factor of 91.5%, with Air China at 81.9% showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [5]. - The total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 15 aircraft by December 2025, with a year-on-year fleet growth of 4% [5].