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银河期货航运日报-20251110
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 09:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concerns about the shipping companies' quotes falling short of expectations in the second half of November still exist, and the peak season height in the future may be limited. The EC futures market continued to fluctuate in a callback. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: On November 10, EC2512 closed at 1778.2 points, down 1.87% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line index released after the market closed was 1504.8 points, up 24.5% week-on-week. The spot freight rate basically met expectations. The shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' schedule adjustment plans, cargo - collection performance, and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday arrangement on the EC2602 contract valuation [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and there are still concerns about the expectations not being met in November. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short term, so it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage trading, it is also recommended to wait and see [8][9] Industry News - According to Clarksons' data on November 7, the global new ship orders in October this year were 2.91 million compensated gross tons (118 ships), down 38% year - on - year and 33% month - on - month. Chinese shipyards ranked first with 2.13 million compensated gross tons (98 ships), accounting for 73% of the market share [10] - On November 7, 2025, a container ship caught fire during unloading operations at the Tanjung Pelepas Port in Malaysia, resulting in 3 deaths and 3 injuries, and the port suspended operations [10] - On November 10, several Democratic senators in the US Senate were ready to advance a package of bills to end the government shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary said that the impact of the government shutdown on the economy was getting worse, and inflation was making substantial progress with prices expected to fall in the coming months [10][11] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes such as Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, and Shanghai - Europe [14][16][18]
集运早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The European line shipping market has certain support, with a good loading rate but a marginal weakening of cargo volume. The weekly average capacity in August is as high as 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cargo volumes in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 are 343,000, 305,000, 320,000, and 305,000 TEU respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures - **Futures Contracts Price and Changes**: The closing prices, price changes (%), basis, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of different EC futures contracts (EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606) are presented. For example, EC2508 closed at 2244.9 with a 0.23% increase, and its open interest decreased by 1355 [2]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602) are given, along with their changes compared to the previous days and week - on - week changes. For instance, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 661.0, a decrease of 41.7 from the previous day and an increase of 8.1 week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Spot - **Spot Price Indexes**: The values, update frequencies, release dates, and changes of several spot price indexes (SCEIS, SCFI, CCFI, NCFI, TCI) are provided. For example, SCEIS on July 21, 2025, was 2400.5 points, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period but a 7.26% increase from two periods ago [2]. - **European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes**: In August, the weekly average capacity of the European line is 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. Cargo volumes in weeks 32 - 35 are 343,000, 305,000, 320,000, and 305,000 TEU respectively. In July, the quotes remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, some shipping companies announced price increases, while MSK had price adjustments. Currently, the actual quotes of PA Alliance decreased by 200 - 300 to 3100 US dollars, and some of MSK's routes had price increases [2]. 3.3 News - **International News**: On July 24, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would not yield to Hamas in the cease - fire negotiations. On July 25, French President Macron announced that France would recognize the State of Palestine in September [2]. 3.4 Shipping Company Quotes - **Online Quotes Structure**: The online quotes structures (40GP and converted to the underlying) of shipping companies (EMC, HMM, HPL, MSK, MSC, ONE, OOCL) from July 4 to July 24 are presented [3][4]. 3.5 Seasonal Trends - **European Line Spot Freight Rate Indexes**: The seasonal trends of SCFIS, SCFI, TCI, NCFI, XSI - C (European line) and other shipping routes' TCI (including Mediterranean East, Mediterranean West, East Africa, Persian Gulf, South Africa, West Africa, etc.) are shown [7].