Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is fluctuating. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the market may fluctuate under the background of decreasing positions. Attention should be paid to the MSK online cabin opening and the actual loading situation of shipping companies during the holiday, as well as the resumption of navigation in the Suez Canal and the changes in the Middle East situation, and the support of the off - season rush shipment of products such as photovoltaics to the market. The market is expected to be volatile and the positions on the disk may continue to decrease [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - **Futures Contract Data**: The EC2604 contract reached a maximum of 1260 points during the session, with a daily reduction of over 2000 lots, and closed at 1258.9 points, up 6.4%. The EC2606 contract closed at 1566.1 points, up 4.78%. Other contracts also rose. Specific data of each contract such as closing price, settlement price, increase or decrease, trading volume, and open interest are provided in the table [2][8] - **Spot Freight Data**: The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1266.6 points. The Nordic route of SCFIS is 1657.94 dollars/TEU (-7.5%), and the US - West route is 1155.66 dollars/FEU (+4.9%) [9] Spot Quotation - **European Line Spot Freight**: OOCL's March online freight rate reached 3130 dollars/FEU, and other shipping companies' rates remained generally unchanged. MSK's March online freight rate increased slightly. Different shipping companies' freight rates for different routes and time periods are provided, such as GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC&PA [2][3] European Line Spot Freight Seasonal Trend - Not provided in the given content

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,756.0 | 16.1 | 0.93% | 124.0 | -44.39% | 1,437.0 | 0.56% | | EC2604 | 1,238.0 | 6.8 | 0.55% | 14,384.0 | -51.16% | 31,132.0 | -0.94% | | EC2606 | 1,553.0 | 22.0 | 1.44% | 2,206.0 | -54.98% | 14,726.0 | -0.5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping route is expected to continue declining before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2080. There is currently a discount of about 200 - 300 points in the market. With a deep discount and strong expectations, there is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the focus is more on the expected - level gaming [1]. - The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market recently. Attention should be paid to the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on the EC. The main event at the expected level is the pre - April 1 export rush of products such as photovoltaic. It may bring the cargo volume equivalent to about 2 container ships of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU, which is unlikely to cause full - load cabins in the post - holiday off - season but may lead to price increases by shipping companies, price stabilization, or even a slight upward trend in freight rates. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices and the possible falsification of expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602: The latest trading price is 1737.8 points, with a daily increase of 1.15%. The trading volume is 612 (a decrease of 318 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1883 (a decrease of 456 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 205 [2]. - EC2604: The latest trading price is 1237.9 points, with a daily increase of 5.22%. The trading volume is 29296 (a decrease of 3522 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 34229 (an increase of 423 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1655 [2]. - EC2606: The latest trading price is 1533.7 points, with a daily increase of 2.57%. The trading volume is 3147 (a decrease of 2797 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 13458 (an increase of 860 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608: The latest trading price is 1597.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.32%. The trading volume is 353 (a decrease of 778 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 1479 (an increase of 29 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2610: The latest trading price is 1128.6 points, with a daily increase of 1.37%. The trading volume is 1355 (a decrease of 1149 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 7677 (a decrease of 207 compared to the previous period) [2]. - EC2612: The latest trading price is 1439 points, with a daily increase of 3.18%. The trading volume is 29 (a decrease of 11 compared to the previous period), and the open interest on one side is 128 (an increase of 7 compared to the previous period) [2]. - Total: The total trading volume is 34792, and the total open interest on one side is 58854. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1860 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly Spot Index: The SCFIS is 1792.14 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The SCFI is $1418/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.8% [4]. - Daily Spot Freight Rates: The TCI (20GP) is $1604/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 3.3%. The TCI (40GP) is $2725/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a change of - 53.3 points [6].

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/3 最新观点 集运欧线：EC下跌3.06%。节前现货运价仍将延续下行为主，2月第三周大柜均价降至2080美元左右，测算下来 目前市场仍有200-300点左右的贴水，深贴水和强预期下现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多还是集中于预 期层面的博弈。近期商品市场降温，预计也会对市场情绪形成一定压制。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产 品的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于 节后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实 层面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The inflection point of spot freight rates is gradually established, and some shipping companies have started to lower the spot quotes for the second half of January. The EC market as a whole has continued to weaken following the spot quotes [3]. - The high point of phased freight rates is gradually emerging. The demand for goods remains high but the growth rate is slowing down. The supply of shipping capacity has changed, and some shipping lines have announced suspension plans. Geopolitical factors may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1706 points, a decrease of 4.11% from the previous trading day. On December 26, 2025, the SCFI European line was quoted at $1690/TEU, a month-on-month increase of 10.24%. The latest SCFIS European line index was 1795.83 points, a month-on-month increase of 3%, slightly lower than expected [3]. - The high point of phased freight rates is gradually emerging. Different shipping companies have different pricing and price adjustment strategies. The demand for goods remains high but the growth rate is slowing down. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in January, February and March 2026 is expected to be 306,000, 252,700 and 288,400 TEUs respectively. CMA has announced a suspension plan for the Spring Festival, with three additional empty ships in February, with an average container capacity of 18,855 TEUs. Geopolitical factors may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see, and pay attention to the rate of price cuts by shipping companies [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread [6]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, 2026, the European natural gas inventory has dropped to the lowest level since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The current inventory is far below the five - year average, less than 60%, and the EU may face the risk of natural gas shortage [9]. - Zelensky said that the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [9]. 3. Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Different futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest and open interest change rates. For example, EC2602 closed at 1706.0, down 73.1 points or 4.11%, with a trading volume of 27,173.0 hands, a decrease of 37.68% [1]. - The spread between different futures contracts (such as EC04 - EC06, EC02 - EC08) has also changed [1]. Container Freight Rates - Different container freight rates (SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, etc.) have different prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European line was at 1795.83 points, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 46.99% [1]. Fuel Costs - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $56.43/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.54%. The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $59.94/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US raid on Venezuela has led to renewed international tensions, but the expected impact is limited. The US line is facing the biggest blizzard in recent years at the end of the year, and the European line is affected by seasonal route congestion, both showing varying degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have shown signs of resuming voyages in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is considered limited. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, but the premium space caused by weather and congestion is limited. The core is the direction of spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, a 9.7% increase from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.41 points, a 35.3% increase from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1656.32 points, a 103.4 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, a 10.24% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2188 USD/FEU, a 9.84% increase from the previous period [3]. - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, a 10.40% increase from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1258.31 points, a 9.96% increase from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1743.56 points, a 38.94% increase from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, a 0.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, a 0.2% increase from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 792.06 points, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On December 31, the main contract 2602 closed at 1801.3, with a 0.52% increase, a trading volume of 21,500 lots, and an open interest of 24,100 lots, a decrease of 3725 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Indicators - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, with improved business levels. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4]. - The eurozone's December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9, lower than the expected 52.6 and the previous value of 52.8. The services PMI preliminary value was 56.6, lower than the market - expected 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service industry. The eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - The US December S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 52.9, a six - month low, with an expected value of 54 and a previous value of 54.1. The US December S&P Global Composite PMI value was 53, with an expected value of 53.9 and a previous value of 54.2 [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and wait and see in the short term. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level. Wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US's attack on Venezuela has led to renewed tensions in the international situation, but the expected impact is limited. The US line is facing the biggest snowstorm in recent years at the end of the year, and the European line is affected by seasonal route congestion, both showing varying degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have shown signs of resuming navigation in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is considered limited. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract closed at 1801.3 on December 31st, with a gain of 0.52%, a trading volume of 21,500 lots, and an open interest of 24,100 lots, a decrease of 3,725 lots from the previous day. Before the holiday, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and combined with some long - position funds reducing their positions and leaving the market, the market fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On December 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On January 2nd, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In the eurozone, the December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value 52.8). The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 56.6, lower than the market expectation of 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service sector. The December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with an improved business climate. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4]. - The US December S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 52.9 (a six - month low, expected 54, previous value 54.1), and the December S&P Global composite PMI value was 53 (expected 53.9, previous value 54.2) [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and mainly wait and see in the short term. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On January 3rd (local time), the US launched a military strike on Venezuela. A Venezuelan official said that at least 40 people, including military and civilians, were killed. As of now, the Venezuelan official has not officially announced the casualty figures. US President Trump announced that the military successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rate increases fell short of expectations, and combined with long - position holders taking profits and leaving the market, the futures market faced downward pressure. It is recommended to take profits and then adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2][7] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [6] 3. Summary by Related Content Areas 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On December 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% from the previous period [3] - On December 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period [4] - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [5] 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and expected value. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 [6] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [6] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [6] 3.3 Futures Market - On December 23, the main contract 2602 closed at 1806.6, down 0.86%, with a trading volume of 41,700 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1506 lots from the previous day [7] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract reached a new high, and it was recommended to take all profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [8] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [8] - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when each contract reached a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [8] 3.5 Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [8] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [8] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take full profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. The NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period. The SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. The NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points on December 19, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period. The CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period. The SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period. The CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [1] PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business climate improving. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 but still above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, recording the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [2] Market and Contract Information - On December 19, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2] - The market's long - short game is fierce, with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend [1][2] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position and have been advised to take full profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3] - On December 19, Turkish, US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials held a meeting in Miami to discuss the implementation of the first - phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. Although there have been multiple violations, the cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4]