2025年10月10日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续回落，或将全面停火，远月大幅回落，符合日报预期，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 | | | | 10月6日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1046.50点，较上期下跌6.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）876.82点，较上期下跌4.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD/F ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [2]. d. Market Conditions and Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long at around 1600 for the 12 and 02 contracts. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold positions stubbornly. Set stop - losses [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [2]. e. Contract - related Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 1.67 million lots and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market in September was in the traditional off - season, with spot freight rates falling rapidly and breaking through the first - half low. As the long - term contract season approaches, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. The market should focus on the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements and their flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season at the end of the year, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm [3][4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In the off - season, spot freight rates were in a rapid decline channel. In September, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low, with the late - September freight rate center dropping to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies narrowing to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line had dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Demand side: In September, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Trump's statement about a new round of strong tariffs may affect shipping volume and rhythm. Supply side: The average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Freight rate side: In September, the off - season spot freight was still in a decline channel due to weak cargo volume. With the spot gradually bottoming out and the expectation of the long - term contract season from November to December, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season before the end of the year and the impact of tariff rhythm [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [6] 3.2 Market Review - In September, the container shipping market entered the traditional off - season. Under the background of increasing cargo - collection pressure on shipping companies and declining ship loading rates, the falling spot freight rates drove the EC2510 contract to continuously test the lower limit. Then, with the start of a new price - support season, it stopped falling and rebounded. The EC contract generally continued to decline in September. When the spot quote fell below the first - half low, the decline exceeded market expectations. Under the pessimistic sentiment, the valuation of the October contract continued to be revised downwards, and the EC2510 contract fell below 1050 points within the month. However, with the approach of the long - term contract season, the expectation of price increases drove the December contract to repair the discount upwards, and some shipping companies' increase in the October spot quote supported the upward movement of the contract price, with the valuation of the October contract expected to be revised upwards. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase announcements [8] 3.3 Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Freight Rate and Price Increase - In September, shipping companies continued to lower freight rates, and the spot freight rate center dropped rapidly, breaking through the first - half low within the month. As the long - term contract season approaches, major shipping companies have successively raised their October spot quotes, and the decline of the October spot freight rate is expected to slow down. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in September was 1346.92 points (as of the week of September 19), a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.68%. As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive SCFI container freight index was 1198.21 points, a month - on - month decrease of 14.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.05%. The global main - route capacity has increased slightly. With the arrival of the National Day Golden Week, major shipping companies have successively announced flight suspension plans, with a suspension rate of about 15% in October [18][19][37] 3.3.2 New Ship Delivery and Order - In August, the global new container ship delivery volume was 163,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 19.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.2%. In August 2025, the number of new container ship orders was 27, with a total of 162,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 77.8%. As of September 2025, the global container shipping capacity reached 32.309 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From September to December 2025, nearly 477,000 TEU of container ships over 8000 TEU are to be delivered, including about 333,800 TEU of ships over 12,000 TEU [48] 3.3.3 Idle Capacity - In September, the idle capacity increased slightly compared with last month. Shipping companies chose to slow down to digest the excess capacity. As of September 22, 2025, the global idle container shipping capacity was 633,000 TEU, an increase of 1.2% compared with the same period last month and 4.5% compared with the same period last year [63] 3.3.4 Port and Shipping Conditions - As of September 24, 2025, the number of container ships bypassing the Suez Canal on the Europe - Mediterranean route was 271, accounting for about 70%, and the bypassing was still in a stable state. The global port situation remained stable. Although some European ports were congested due to extreme weather in September, the problem was gradually diluted against the background of declining cargo volume. As of September 22, 2025, the Clarksons global container ship congestion index was 30.6%, showing a significant decline compared with August. The average waiting time for global container ships (over 8000 TEU, 7 - day moving average) was 7.92 hours as of September 21, 2025, a decrease of 2.7 hours compared with the end of August. The Poland - Belarus border port reopened on the early morning of September 25 [76][84][85] 3.3.5 China's Export Situation - In August, China's exports showed resilience, with the goods trade continuing to grow steadily, but there were obvious differentiations among different products and trading partners. In August, China's total export volume was 321.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, with the growth rate slowing down compared with July. The main reason was the expanded decline in exports to the US, which dragged down the total exports. However, the diversification of China's trade buffered the external economic and trade environment, supporting the positive year - on - year growth of exports in August. Specifically, China's exports to the US decreased by 33.1% year - on - year in August, with the decline expanding by 11.4 percentage points compared with July. Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5% year - on - year, and exports to the EU increased by 10.4% year - on - year, accounting for 16.1% of China's total exports. In the first eight months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, accounting for more than 60% of the total export value, with obvious growth in the exports of integrated circuits and automobiles, both with increases of more than 10%. The growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 1.5% [111][113] 3.3.6 European Economic Situation - In September, the European manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, indicating that the foundation of the European economic recovery was not solid and the demand was still fragile. The eurozone's composite PMI in September rose slightly to 51.2, remaining in the expansion range for many consecutive months, mainly due to the good performance of the service industry. The service industry PMI in September was 51.4, slightly exceeding expectations, but the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line to 49.5, reflecting the overall weak performance of the European manufacturing industry. Germany's economy grew driven by the service industry, with the composite PMI in September rising significantly to 52.4, showing a strong recovery momentum, but its manufacturing industry remained weak, with the manufacturing PMI in September at 48.5, and there was still production pressure in the future. France's economic situation was the opposite of Germany's. In September, its economic prosperity further deteriorated, with the output of manufacturing and service enterprises declining monthly and the decline intensifying. The manufacturing PMI in September fell to 48.1, and the service industry PMI fell to 48.9 [128] 3.3.7 Container Shipping Volume - In July 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.7584 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 8.7 percentage points compared with June. The container shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.124 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, with the decline remaining the same as last month. The container shipping volume from Asia to the world was 10.355 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 6.8 percentage points compared with June. The global container shipping volume was 16.575 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 2.5 percentage points compared with June [132] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Freight rate: The off - season spot freight rate is still in a rapid decline channel. In September, with sufficient capacity supply, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low within the month. The current late - September freight rate center has dropped to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies has narrowed to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line has dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November. Supply and demand: On the demand side, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally in September, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Recently, Trump said that a new round of strong tariffs would be implemented, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Strategy: Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [138][139]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amidst the long - short game, the market is in the bottom - building process. It's not advisable to increase positions further, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices has boosted the sentiment of long - positions to some extent, but the market pulled back after the morning surge due to capital withdrawal, showing a generally strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1198.21 points on September 19, down 199.90 points from the previous period. Its European - line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; the US - West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase. The trading volume was 24,680 lots, and the open interest was 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. It's recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has made no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [5]. - The United Nations investigation committee stated on September 23 that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control over the Gaza Strip and ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank. In July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - On September 24, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued a plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [4] - With liner companies significantly reducing freight rates and pre - holiday cargo volume being concerning, the near - month contracts have obvious declines, and further position - adding is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - From September 12 to September 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 11.71% to 903.32 points; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) fell 8.1% to 1440.24 points; the NCFI (European route) decreased 14.78% to 729.42 points; the SCFIS (US West route) rose 37.7% to 1349.84 points; the NCFI (US West route) declined 9.13% to 1216.14 points [2] - From September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased 46.33 points to 1398.11 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points; the SCFI European route price fell 12.24% to 1154 USD/TEU; the CCFI (European route) decreased 6.2% to 1537.28 points; the SCFI US West route rose 8.27% to 2370 USD/FEU; the CCFI (US West route) declined 2.2% to 757.45 points [2] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, hitting the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5) [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from last month [3] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3] Trade and Tariff Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [4] Market and Contract Information - On September 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1109.7, with a decline of 6.72%, a trading volume of 4.35 million lots, and an open interest of 4.96 million lots, an increase of 2092 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. Temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Take profit when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - The EU will announce measures against Israel on September 17, including suspending trade preferences and imposing sanctions on extreme - right ministers and violent settlers, to pressure Israel to end the Gaza conflict [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try for arbitrage strategies [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. 3.3 Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%, with a trading volume of 32,600 lots and an open interest of 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military is strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel to create conditions for defeating Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages [5]. - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is experiencing a rebound, mainly due to the market's increased expectation of interest rate cuts after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the anticipation of a rush to ship furniture before potential tariffs. However, the current shipping market demand remains weak, with spot freight rates accelerating to the bottom, and the overall trend is downward [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and related sub - indices showed declines, with SCFI - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 8.35%, and EC2510 in the derivatives having the largest increase of 3.74% [5]. - **Positions**: There were changes in the positions of various contracts, such as a decrease of 22 in the EC2606 position and an increase of 102 in the EC2410 position [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all increased, with the 12 - 4 spread increasing by 16.0 [5]. 3.2 Market Situation - **Demand and Supply**: The demand in the shipping market is weak. In late August, the increase in overtime ships pressured the spot freight rates. The market is buyer - dominated, and there are no clear price - increase plans from shipping companies. The announced empty - sailing rate for European routes in September is low, and the supply of shipping capacity is abundant in the short term [8]. - **Port Conditions**: European main ports such as Germany and the Netherlands are congested, and the on - time rate of the Asia - Europe route has decreased by 13.3%, which may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [8]. - **Policy Impact**: Trump's potential tariff policy on furniture and the global over - capacity problem have further suppressed trade volume [8]. 3.3 Market Trend and Strategy - **Trend**: Shipping companies are accelerating the price - cut rhythm to maintain market share, and the overall downward trend of freight rates is established. The spot freight rate is in the stage of accelerating to the bottom, and the follow - up decline of the futures market may be smaller [9]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - The short - term market may rebound, with specific trading strategies for different contracts; the arbitrage strategy suggests waiting or light - position attempts; long - term contracts should take profits on rallies and wait for a stable pullback [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On July 25, compared with July 21, NCFI (composite) dropped 3.26% to 1110.57 points, SCFIS (European route) fell 0.9% to 2400.50 points, NCFI (European route) declined 1.20% to 1422.9 points, SCFIS (US West route) rose 2.8% to 1301.81 points, and NCFI (US West route) dropped 5.19% to 1120.51 points [1] - On July 25, SCFI was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points; CCFI (composite) fell 3.2% to 1261.35 points; SCFI (European route) rose 0.53% to 2090 USD/TEU; CCFI (European route) dropped 0.9% to 1787.24 points; SCFI (US West route) fell 3.50% to 2067 USD/FEU; CCFI (US West route) dropped 6.4% to 880.99 points [1] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, services PMI was 50, and composite PMI was 50.2; Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [2] - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, services PMI was 53.1, and composite PMI was 52.8 [2] Market and Policy - Trump added tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia. The tariff negotiation was postponed to August 1. The spot market had a small price increase, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3] - On July 25, the 2510 contract closed at 1527.5, down 2.71%, with a trading volume of 42,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 609 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - The new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations is back on track, and the Abraham Accords may expand. US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations may also resume [5] - Syrian and Israeli officials held talks on easing the situation in southern Syria but reached no agreement and will continue negotiations [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if it retraces; short the EC2512 contract with a light position [4] - Arbitrage: Due to international instability, the market has a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profits on rallies for all contracts and wait for a stable pullback to determine the next direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]