投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/8/26 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | == | 现值 | 1415 | 1175 | 1644 | 1041 | 2613 | 1668 | | Alla | 前值 | 1460 | 1193 | 1759 | 1106 | 2719 | 1820 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -3.07% | -1.55% | -6.54% | -5.88% | -3.90% | -8.35% | | ​​​ | | SCFI ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - The short - term market may rebound, with specific trading strategies for different contracts; the arbitrage strategy suggests waiting or light - position attempts; long - term contracts should take profits on rallies and wait for a stable pullback [4] Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On July 25, compared with July 21, NCFI (composite) dropped 3.26% to 1110.57 points, SCFIS (European route) fell 0.9% to 2400.50 points, NCFI (European route) declined 1.20% to 1422.9 points, SCFIS (US West route) rose 2.8% to 1301.81 points, and NCFI (US West route) dropped 5.19% to 1120.51 points [1] - On July 25, SCFI was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points; CCFI (composite) fell 3.2% to 1261.35 points; SCFI (European route) rose 0.53% to 2090 USD/TEU; CCFI (European route) dropped 0.9% to 1787.24 points; SCFI (US West route) fell 3.50% to 2067 USD/FEU; CCFI (US West route) dropped 6.4% to 880.99 points [1] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, services PMI was 50, and composite PMI was 50.2; Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [2] - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, services PMI was 53.1, and composite PMI was 52.8 [2] Market and Policy - Trump added tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia. The tariff negotiation was postponed to August 1. The spot market had a small price increase, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3] - On July 25, the 2510 contract closed at 1527.5, down 2.71%, with a trading volume of 42,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 609 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - The new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations is back on track, and the Abraham Accords may expand. US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations may also resume [5] - Syrian and Israeli officials held talks on easing the situation in southern Syria but reached no agreement and will continue negotiations [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if it retraces; short the EC2512 contract with a light position [4] - Arbitrage: Due to international instability, the market has a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait or try with a light position [4] - Long - term: Take profits on rallies for all contracts and wait for a stable pullback to determine the next direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **July 18 - 21 Changes**: The NCFI (composite index) was 1147.96 points on July 21, down 5.75% from the previous period; SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; NCFI (European route) was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; NCFI (US West route) was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [1]. - **July 18 Changes**: SCFI was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; CCFI (composite index) was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; SCFI (European route) was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; CCFI (European route) was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; SCFI (US West route) was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4%; CCFI (US West route) was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone in June**: Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, Services PMI was 50 (2 - month high), Composite PMI was 50.2, and Sentix Investor Confidence Index was 0.2 [2]. - **China in June**: Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [2]. - **US in June**: Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52, Services PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and Composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market Influences - Trump's tariff policy targeting Southeast Asian countries has increased trading difficulty, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate hikes. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August 1. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and spot freight rate adjustments [3]. - On July 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,700 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, an increase of 549 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300), and consider adding positions if it continues to decline. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [4]. - **Arbitrage**: In the context of international instability, the market has a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term**: Take profit when contracts rise, and wait for the market to stabilize after a decline before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - **Price Limits**: The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - **Margin Requirements**: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - **Intraday Position Limits**: The intraday position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers can consider adding positions if the price continues to pull back, and short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract. In the long - term, it is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50%, and the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%, and the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9%, and the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 50, and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, service PMI was 53.1, and composite PMI was 52.8 [3]. Market Situation - Trump's additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, and the market has rebounded slightly [4]. - On July 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1581.3, down 4.28%, with a trading volume of 65,600 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 453 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions if it continues to pull back today. Consider short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. Other Information - On July 16, the new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza made significant progress. Israel submitted a new withdrawal plan [6]. - In the first quarter of this year, global goods trade increased by 3.6% quarter - on - quarter and 5.3% year - on - year. The growth was mainly due to the expected tariff increase in the US, which led to a significant increase in North American imports [6]. - The US tariff policy has brought uncertainty to the operation of Hamburg Port [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading in the shipping market is challenging. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all remaining trading partners, targeting Southeast Asian countries to crack down on re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1st, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The spot market price range is set, with small price hikes to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [2][4]. - The cease - fire in Gaza cannot be reached immediately, and the Houthi rebels continue to attack Israeli - related ships. Spot freight rates are stable, and the market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing the market to fluctuate widely [2]. - On July 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.6, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 34,600 lots and an open interest of 30,900 lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [2]. Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected value of 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected value of 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected value of 52.1, a two - month low [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market is likely to rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the market rallies today. For the EC2512 contract, a light short position is recommended above 1650, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international instability, the market shows a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light - position attempt [3]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, take profit when the price rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as China - US trade talks, tariff policies, and spot freight rates. Under the current situation, the market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot market lacks significant positive news, making the futures market prone to decline and difficult to rise [3]. - Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court's ruling [3]. 3. Specific Summaries Market Conditions - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 2240.35 points on June 6, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points on June 6, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2]. - On June 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2001.5, down 2.10%, with a trading volume of 55,100 lots and an open interest of 44,600 lots, a decrease of 891 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49); the May services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1); the May composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous value 50.4). The eurozone's May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous value - 19.5) [2]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous value 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.6) [2]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [5]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 728.33 billion yuan, down 6.1% [5]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 447.51 billion yuan, down 6.3% [5]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative in the same period were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is strong and the long - term freight rate is weak. Pay attention to the court's ruling result. Currently, use a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market price range is set, and the price increase reaction is weak. Without more positive factors, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final ruling result [3]. - The US has extended the tariff exemption on China, and the dialogue between the top leaders of China and the US has brought some impetus to the bulls. However, due to the slight decline in spot freight rates, the situation of price increase implementation is unclear, and the market fluctuates greatly with the game between long and short positions [3]. 3. Key Points by Category Freight Rate Index - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds to above 2250, it is recommended to try short positions with a light position and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term one. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling result, and currently, the positive arbitrage structure is mainly considered [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Market Conditions - On June 6, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16%, the margin was adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 was 100 lots [3]. Other Information - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said on the 5th that Israel is "using" local organizations in the Gaza Strip to fight against Hamas [4]. - As of the end of May, China has newly opened more than 100 international air cargo routes this year, with 26 new routes opened in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the cargo mainly includes cross - border e - commerce goods, electronic products, etc. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment is generally bullish, and with the entry of long - position funds, the market pulled up rapidly in the afternoon with significant volatility. Risk - preferring investors can consider short - selling on rallies [2][3]. - It's necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1719.79 points, up 18.9%. On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02%; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On May 23, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points. The SCFI European route price was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12%; the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2%; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6%; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In May, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); the service PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - US: In May, the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); the service PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On May 29, the main contract 2508 closed at 2131.0, with a 6.34% increase, a trading volume of 131,600 lots, and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 2813 lots from the previous day [3]. - Spot freight rates are gradually stabilizing, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the unclear peak - season momentum, there was intense competition between long and short positions in the morning. In the afternoon, the market price was quickly pulled up and then fluctuated slightly, possibly due to the generally bullish macro situation and the entry of some long - position funds [3]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short - sell when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the result of the court ruling. Currently, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to mainly use positive - spread arbitrage [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].