Report Information - Report Title: Pure Benzene - Styrene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 31, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428) [2] Price Forecast - Pure Benzene Price Range (Monthly): 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Styrene Price Range (Monthly): 6,200 - 6,800 yuan/ton [3] - Styrene Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 16.41% [3] - Styrene Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 85.8% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short styrene futures (EB2512) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 6,550 - 6,600 yuan/ton [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options (EB2512C6600) to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 65 - 90 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy styrene futures (EB2512) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 6,350 - 6,400 yuan/ton [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options (EB2512P6400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 70 - 90 [3] Core Contradictions Pure Benzene - Sanctions on some Chinese refineries by the US, UK, and EU have affected pure benzene production. After adjusting the supply forecast, pure benzene is expected to accumulate inventory in Q4 [4] - In October, pure benzene imports were low in the first half and are expected to increase in late - October to early - November, leading to port inventory accumulation [4] - High supply and weak demand (downstream production and maintenance co - exist, and the peak season may not be prosperous) will keep the inventory accumulation pattern unchanged, and pure benzene is expected to be weak [4] Styrene - 1.2 million tons of new capacity has been put into production, and supply will increase after stable operation [4] - Although the balance sheet shows de - stocking in Q4, high inventory and expected inventory accumulation in Q1 next year pose great de - stocking pressure [4] - With many important domestic and international meetings, there are both long and short factors for energy and chemical products. Pure benzene and styrene lack upward momentum and are sensitive to macro trends and crude oil prices [4] Bullish Factors - Five - department plan to improve the urban business environment [5] - Shutdowns of some styrene plants in Tianjin and Guangdong due to equipment problems [5] - US - China trade talks result in the cancellation or suspension of some sanctions [7][4] Bearish Factors - Slow de - stocking of styrene in Jiangsu ports as of October 27, 2025, with 19.3 tons of inventory [8] - Production cuts of downstream ABS and possible delay of new ABS plant operation [8] Basis and Spread Changes Basis Changes - Pure benzene basis in East China decreased significantly on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day [9] - Styrene basis in East China also decreased on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day [9] Spread Changes - Pure benzene and styrene paper - cargo spreads and other spreads showed various changes on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day [10] Industry Chain Prices - Brent crude oil price remained at 64.03 dollars/barrel on October 31, 2025 [10] - Pure benzene and styrene prices in different markets and futures contracts had different changes on October 31, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [10][11] - Profits in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain also showed different trends [11]