纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/7/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5800-6400 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7450-750 0 | ...

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： 【核心矛盾】 基本面看苯乙烯近强远弱格局不变，但近期盘面价格走向受宏观扰动较大，建议观望为主，等宏观局势稳定 后再进空单更为稳妥。 【利多解读】 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥 ...

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7800 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2508 | 卖出 | 25% | 7600-770 0 | | | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金 ...

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-745 0 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Tariff cuts and emergency plant shutdowns have led to the valuation repair of styrene, with the styrene-pure benzene spread widening to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance plants have returned ahead of schedule, and there is an expectation of increased supply. However, it will take time for the increased supply to result in port inventory accumulation. Currently, the May styrene paper cargo is at the end of the delivery period, and the short-covering demand of short sellers has strongly supported the May basis. In the short term, prices are supported, but in the medium to long term, styrene is about to enter the off-season of demand, and prices are expected to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 29.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over the past three years is 85.5% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about styrene price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio and enter the market at 7,200 - 7,300 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2507C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio and enter at 80 - 110 yuan [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio and enter the market at 7,050 - 7,150 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio and enter at 90 - 120 yuan [2]. Core Contradictions - Tariff cuts and emergency plant shutdowns have led to styrene valuation repair, and the styrene-pure benzene spread has widened to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance plants have returned ahead of schedule, increasing supply. However, it will take time for the increased supply to lead to port inventory accumulation. Currently, the May styrene paper cargo is at the end of the delivery period, and short-covering demand has strongly supported the May basis. In the short term, prices are supported, but in the medium to long term, styrene is about to enter the off-season of demand, and prices are expected to decline [3]. Bullish Factors - As of May 22, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 186,400 tons, a decrease of 26,200 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 12.32%, indicating a significant decline in factory inventory [4]. - The raw material inventory of current styrene downstream factories is low, and the replenishment demand provides some support for styrene prices [5]. Bearish Factors - As of May 26, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 143,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.72%. Starting from late May, previously traded European pure benzene has been arriving in Asia, and there are recent market rumors of new European-Asian pure benzene orders, so the subsequent import volume of pure benzene is expected to remain high [5]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, and many downstream plants have planned maintenance in May and June, resulting in a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7]. - As of May 26, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 74,600 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a 44.19% increase [7]. - The 450,000-ton styrene plant of Shenghong and the 720,000-ton styrene plant of Li Huayi are planned to restart soon, increasing styrene supply [7]. - Styrene is gradually entering the off-season of demand [7]. Price and Spread Data - Various price and spread data for styrene, pure benzene, and related products on May 27, 2025, compared with previous days, including paper cargo prices, spot prices, basis, and production margins, are provided in detail [9][10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro - atmosphere has improved, and with unplanned maintenance, the futures market has rapidly rebounded. In the medium - to - long - term, the price of styrene is still dragged down by pure benzene and is expected to decline. The future market trend depends on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene). It also depends on the improvement of gasoline blending demand in the US and the impact of the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation units on China's pure benzene imports [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7400 - 8000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.8% [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high and worried about price decline, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, and sell call options (EB2507C8000) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 80 - 120 [2] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and aiming to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7450 - 7550 yuan/ton, and sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 50 - 80 [2] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward movement of styrene is due to improved macro - atmosphere and unplanned maintenance, while the long - term downward pressure comes from pure benzene. Future trends depend on downstream demand improvement after tariff reduction and the situation of US gasoline blending demand and its impact on pure benzene imports [3] 利多解读 - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory drawdown and tightened spot liquidity [4] - The smooth progress of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks and the significant tariff reduction in the first - round consultation have improved market sentiment [4] - On Tuesday, Hengli's cracking unit had a sudden failure, leading to the early maintenance of its 720,000 - ton styrene unit for a month, intensifying the shortage of styrene. There are also rumors that Zhejiang Petrochemical's styrene unit may start maintenance a few days earlier [4] 利空解读 - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the pure benzene imports from May to June are expected to remain high [7] - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many units of caprolactam and aniline in downstream industries planning maintenance in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7] - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain remains high [7] - The downstream 3S products have limited price - increasing power, and there is no obvious improvement in terminal orders after the tariff reduction, resulting in limited enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials [8] Styrene Basis and Price Changes - The basis of East China - EB05 decreased from 43 to 39 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB06 increased from 251 to 329 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 78 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB07 increased from 413 to 486 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 73 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB08 increased from 530 to 598 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 68 yuan/ton [8] - The prices of various products in the styrene and related industries on May 16, 2025, showed different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week, such as the price of pure benzene in the East China market decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the price of styrene in the East China market decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9][10]