机构 核心观点 五矿期货 苯乙烯价格或将反弹 8月25日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约呈现窄幅震荡，最低下探至7318.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约 报7340.00元，跌幅0.08%。 国投安信期货 苯乙烯基本面对价格仍有拖累作用 苯乙烯期货主力微跌0.08%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 五矿期货：苯乙烯价格或将反弹 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱。分析如下：市场宏观情绪较好，成本端支撑尚存。目前BZN 价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间较大。成本端纯苯开工中性震荡，供应量依然偏宽。供应端乙苯脱 氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行。苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅累库；季节性淡季尾声，需求端三S整体 开工率震荡上涨。长期BZN或将修复，港口库存高位持续累库，带库存去库拐点出现，苯乙烯价格或将 反弹。 国投安信期货；苯乙烯基本面对价格仍有拖累作用 苯乙烯期货主力合约均线系统粘合，整体延续整理格局。基本面上，成本端震荡偏弱，对苯乙烯缺乏提 振，但保持底部支撑。苯乙烯自身供需仍以宽平衡状态为主，码头大概率仍有累库表现，苯乙烯基本面 对价格仍有拖累作用。 ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

近期，"反内卷"主题持续升温，纯苯产业链供需格局也正面临重构。恰逢行业变革的关键转折点，7月8 日，纯苯期货和期权在大连商品交易所挂牌上市，为产业链企业风险管理带来新机遇。 日前，中国证券报记者跟随大商所调研团，一路奔赴浙江、江苏及山东等化工产业聚集区，实地走访了 多家纯苯产业链上下游的代表性企业，了解它们运用衍生品工具的实践情况。 行业供需格局或生变 近期，有关"反内卷"题材持续发酵，市场对淘汰落后产能的预期升温，带动多个商品价格上涨，或受此 影响，纯苯价格也随之走高。文华财经数据显示，截至8月22日收盘，纯苯期货主力合约BZ2603报收 6208元/吨，较上市首日收盘价5931元/吨上涨4.67%，相较挂牌基准价5900元/吨上涨5.22%。 纯苯是石油炼制的重要产物，广义上游为石脑油，生产工艺包括催化重整、乙烯裂解、甲苯歧化等。作 为基础化工原料，纯苯的直接下游主要由苯乙烯、己内酰胺、苯酚、苯胺、己二酸五大产品构成，这五 大下游产品占据纯苯总消费量的95%。这些产品再通过PS(聚苯乙烯树脂)、EPS(可发性聚苯乙烯)、 ABS(丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯三元共聚物)、双酚A等间接下游，进一步延伸产业链，最终 ...

近期，"反内卷"主题持续升温，纯苯产业链供需格局也正面临重构。恰逢行业变革的关键转折点，7月8 日，纯苯期货和期权在大连商品交易所挂牌上市，为产业链企业风险管理带来新机遇。 日前，中国证券报记者跟随大商所调研团，一路奔赴浙江、江苏及山东等化工产业聚集区，实地走访了 多家纯苯产业链上下游的代表性企业，了解它们运用衍生品工具的实践情况。 结合此次实地调研以及此前采访的相关产业链企业，中国证券报记者了解到，纯苯期货上市一个多月以 来，部分产业链企业已开始积极参与衍生品工具运用，比如通过低位建立纯苯虚拟库存、高位卖出苯乙 烯期货实现加工利润对锁，另有企业通过开展基差交易及进口利润锁定，探索价格管理新路径。部分产 业界人士还对纯苯期货发展前景充满期待，认为其有望强化实体经济抗风险能力，提升中国在全球化工 品市场的价格话语权。 ● 本报记者 马爽 行业供需格局或生变 近期，有关"反内卷"题材持续发酵，市场对淘汰落后产能的预期升温，带动多个商品价格上涨，或受此 影响，纯苯价格也随之走高。文华财经数据显示，截至8月22日收盘，纯苯期货主力合约BZ2603报收 6208元/吨，较上市首日收盘价5931元/吨上涨4.67%，相较 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fibre: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene prices are boosted by improved supply - demand, while polyolefin has different supply - demand situations for polyethylene and polypropylene [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks for different periods. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 for pure benzene, and benzene - styrene has stable supply and limited downstream boost [3]. - The polyester market has various factors affecting different products. PX has positive valuation, ethylene glycol is multi - factor intertwined, short - fibre has positive demand expectations, and bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different performances for methanol and urea. Methanol has weak reality but strong expectation, and urea is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows different trends for PVC and caustic soda. PVC is expected to be weak, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but limited in long - term increase [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is weak. Soda ash has an over - supply situation, and glass has cost support but weak demand [8]. Summary by Categories Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures rose, with positive supply - demand factors such as downstream restocking and supply - side changes [2]. - Polyolefin futures had a mixed performance. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow demand, while polypropylene has short - term supply support and slow demand recovery [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene has a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 but may face pressure in Q4. It is recommended for monthly - spread band trading [3]. - Styrene has cost support, stable supply, and limited downstream boost, maintaining a consolidation pattern [3]. Polyester - PX has positive valuation due to improved demand expectations. PTA is affected by device news with limited impact [5]. - Ethylene glycol has a mixed situation with increased supply and stable demand, and needs to focus on policy and demand recovery [5]. - Short - fibre has positive demand expectations in the peak season and is recommended for long - term allocation. Bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has weak current conditions but strong expectations, with port inventory issues and changes in supply and demand [6]. - Urea is affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is expected to be weak due to high supply, low demand, and increased export pressure [7]. - Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to demand for restocking but has long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has an over - supply situation with high inventory at all levels, and its price is under pressure [8]. - Glass has cost support but weak demand, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...