运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 苯乙烯价格易涨难跌 宝城期货 陈栋 2026 年 3 月初，中东美伊冲突急剧升级，霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，国际原油大幅跳涨。受益于地缘因 素提振，本周一国内苯乙烯期货 2604 合约迎来上涨走势，期价一度上试 7816 元/吨一线，走出强趋势行情。 本轮上涨并非单纯情绪驱动，而是地缘风险溢价、产能周期拐点、供应收缩、需求复苏、库存低位多重因 素共振的结果。预计后市苯乙烯期货或维持震荡偏强的走势。 成本抬升+进口扰动，双重驱动苯乙烯走强 近期美以联合军事行动打击伊朗相关目标，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约 20%–30%海运原油 贸易面临中断风险，国际油价单日迎来较大涨幅，国内原油期货亦同步大涨。地缘风险通过两条路径直接 作用于苯乙烯：一是成本端强传导，苯乙烯以纯苯、乙烯为核心原料，均深度绑定原油价格链，油价上行 直接推升苯乙烯生产成本，加工费被快速压缩，倒逼产品价格跟随上行；二是进口供应收紧，沙特、科威 特为我国苯乙烯主要进口来源国，其装置集中于波斯湾沿岸，海峡通航受阻将显著降低亚洲货源流动性， 叠加海外装置集中检修，进口到港预期持续偏弱 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 空 5 多 9 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆白银： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏强震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注中东局势 【市场资讯】1）伊朗局势：①特朗普称伊朗新领导层希望恢复谈判，他已同意进行对话。 ②特朗普称一口气干掉了 48 个伊朗领导人，基本摧毁伊朗海军总部。美军说摧毁革命卫 队总部。③伊朗临时领导委员会已成立，主要成员由伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬等 3 人组成。④ 伊朗外长：伊朗对任何有助于缓解紧张局势的努力持开放态度，可能在未来几天内看到新 领导人的选举。⑤以总理：未来几天对伊朗打击力度会进一步加强。⑥特朗普：对伊朗 的军事行动可能持续 4 周。⑦伊朗前总统内贾德遇袭身亡，伊朗多位军事指挥官确认死亡 ⑧美军：3 名美军官兵已在行动中阵亡。伊朗称袭击致美军伤亡 560 人。2）中东海运咽喉 ——①霍尔木兹海峡外积压大量油轮。②多家船司或将绕行好望角，海运费用或将上涨。 ③伊朗称若能源设施遭袭，该地区所有国家油气设施都将被毁。④伊朗外长：无意关闭 霍尔木兹海峡。3）中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲要草案和政府工作报告。 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 【南华观点】上周，全球宏观格局迎来四大重磅事件的集中冲击：美国最高法院对特朗普 关税政策的终局裁决、特朗普极具对抗性的国情咨文演讲、 ...

商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 1,147.90 3.41% 72.66% 0.27% 1.13 -0.04 -147.54 白银 23,019.00 16.36% 129.12% 7.64% 1.95 0.21 -11.81 铜 103,920.00 3.27% 44.13% 0.88% 0.67 0.38 -127.74 镍 141,560.00 4.13% 48.55% 2.57% 3.10 0.40 12.58 铝 23,835.00 2.45% 38.23% 0.75% 1.04 0.37 -32.02 锡 453,240.00 23.27% 81.12% 15.77% 8.18 0.55 42.72 锌 24,710.00 1.90% 26.11% 2.33% 1.45 0.46 -10.43 铅 16,840.00 0.84% 9.86% -11.23% 0.84 0.26 -6.98 工业硅 8,395.00 0.00% 15.95% -16.70% 0.58 -0.09 -4.85 螺纹钢 3,067.00 0.39% ...

2026年02月26日 星期四 商品期货早班车 期货研究 | 铝 | 交易策略：加纳将铝土矿原矿禁止出口日期设定在 2030 年，由于加纳占中国铝土矿总进口量不足 1%，相关 | | --- | --- | | | 影响有限。氧化铝基本面仍维持供需宽松格局，但行业减产预期、反内卷政策扰动，将为价格带来潜在的向 | | | 上驱动，盘面上行空间将取决于供需格局的边际变化，预计价格维持震荡偏强。 | | | 风险提示：减产不及预期。 | | | 市场表现：LC2605 收于 152,640 元/吨（+ 3220），收盘价+2.15% | | | 基本面：SMM 澳大利亚锂辉石精矿（CIF 中国）现货报价为 2250 美元/吨，较前日+140 元/吨，SMM 电碳报 | | | 161243（+9218）元/吨，Mysteel 优质碳酸锂晚盘价 165300（+9800）元/吨。供给方面，节前周产量为 20184 | | | 吨，环比-560 吨。SMM 2 81,930 吨，环比-16.3%。需求方面，磷酸铁锂 SMM2 预计 月碳酸锂排产为 月排 | | | 产为 35.4 万吨，环比-10.7%，符合需求季节 ...

文字早评 2026/02/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美伊冲突走向愈加悲观，伊朗石油储量为全球第三并控制霍尔木兹海峡，多位分析师预测油价将大 幅上涨； 2、国内 AI 大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证； 3、人民币汇率强势升值至 6.89 区间，股债汇三市联动向好，外资回流趋势确立； 4、荣耀将推出首款人形机器人，聚焦消费市场；SK 海力士 DRAM 及 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，今年所有客 户的需求都无法得到完全满足。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/9.13%/10.00%/6.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/3.80%/10.30%/7.40%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/2.46%/14.22%/10.51%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/6.02%/3.43%/3.89%。 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1135 亿元。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好、美国关税政策反转释放外需预期的背景下，叠加人民币汇率强势升 值带动外资流入、大模型发布潮与机器人出圈，股指有望先迎来一波偏强表现。 ...

2026年02月24日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：春节长假期间，先抑后扬，在 2 月 20 日周五爆发，以伦敦金计价的国际金价单日涨幅超过 2%， | | | 金 | 5200 美元/盎司大关。白银波动更为激烈，但也在春节期间触底反弹，以伦敦银计价的 本周一继续上涨逼近 | | | 属 | 单日涨幅超过 7%，周一价格突破 87 美元/盎司。 | | | | 基本面：本周内，特朗普公开表示"正在考虑对伊朗进行有限军事打击"，叠加此前美军控制委内瑞拉领导人 | | | | 的余波，全球地缘政治溢价再次上升；美国最高法院投票否决了特朗普总统的部分关税政策。然而，特朗普 | | | | 随即宣布将依据其他法律对全球商品加征 10% 的新关税。这种政策的极度不确定性和对全球贸易战的担忧， | | | | 促使避险资金重新涌入黄金；COMEX 黄金库存为 1054.9 吨，-17.2 吨；SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1078.7 | 吨， | | | +3.1 吨；伦敦黄金库存 1 月底 9155 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Metals - The precious metals market is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on gold again, and the long - term outlook remains positive. For silver, the spot market is still tight, but the price fluctuations on the futures market are increasing, so cautious participation is advised [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival. Aluminum is expected to maintain a short - term price oscillation. Alumina has upward potential due to marginal supply contraction. Industrial silicon is likely to oscillate between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices can be considered if the large - scale production cuts are short - lived. Lithium carbonate is expected to have an upward - biased price trend. Polysilicon is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton. Tin also requires waiting for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [1][3][4]. Black Industry - For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, the recommended strategy is mainly to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions [5]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure. Corn futures are expected to oscillate upward. For oils and fats, the market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. For cotton, it is advisable to buy at low prices. Egg, and hog futures are expected to oscillate downward [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and is recommended to be bought at low prices in the medium term. PVC is recommended to be observed. For PX, the mid - term long - position view remains unchanged, and for PTA, appropriate profit - taking is advised. Glass suggests a strategy of buying glass and selling soda ash. PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices for short - term opportunities. Styrene is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals opened higher, oscillated, and slightly climbed in the night session yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, and there were downward revisions in previous data. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have been postponed. The US budget deficit has shrunk, but future deficit expectations are rising. There are changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metals market is stabilizing. Go long on gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices rose and then declined yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The stronger - than - expected non - farm data led to a stronger US dollar and weaker metals. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand for replenishment has ended [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [3]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.62% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and a supply - demand balance, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.25% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and overhaul phase, while electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the subsequent overhaul and shutdown situations as there is upward potential in the price [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased last week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy operating rate is stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is in a supply - demand balance. Observe the resumption of production by large enterprises after the Spring Festival. Consider short - selling at high prices if the production cuts are short - lived [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 9.41% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Some lithium salt plants are under maintenance. Production and demand in the lithium - related industries are expected to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1, and the number of inventory days has increased [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has an upward - biased expectation for the material production in March. The price is expected to oscillate upward [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract increased by 230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is stable, and the inventory is unchanged. The production of silicon wafers is stable, while that of battery cells and components is expected to decline. The photovoltaic export policy provides some support [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices continued to oscillate upward [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the downstream replenishment has ended [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory has increased. The building material demand is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and the inventory change is at a historical high. Steel mills are in a loss, and the production increase is limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The iron ore supply - demand is neutral. The iron - water production has slightly increased. The furnace - charge replenishment is almost complete, and the inventory days are above the historical average. There is a structural contradiction in the port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production has increased. Steel mills are in a loss, and the blast - furnace production may decline. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory is at a medium level, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The USDA report increased the Brazilian soybean production, and the global supply is becoming more abundant. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is increasing [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybeans are strong. Focus on China's purchases and South American production. The domestic market is weaker, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are rising, while the spot prices in the Northeast are slightly falling and those in the North China are slightly rising [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not high. The selling sentiment in the Northeast has increased, and the downstream is gradually stopping purchases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate upward due to policy support [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak in the short term [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14% month - on - month in January, and the export increased by 11%. The inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.82 million tons [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. Pay attention to future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight ICE US cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the international crude oil prices continued to rise [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global cotton production in 25/26 is expected to increase. The Indian cotton production remains unchanged. The domestic cotton prices are rising, and the textile enterprises' inventory has increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a price range of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and the spot prices have stopped being quoted [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory is decreasing, but the replenishment is active. The stocking is ending, and the demand is weakening [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures and spot prices are both weak [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term slaughter volume has increased, but it is expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in North China is 6570 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply pressure has slowed down, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 increased by 0.5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The trading is light, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The social inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to balanced supply and weak demand [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 917 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China is 5180 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX and PTA is at a high level. The polyester factory load is decreasing, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view on PX and take appropriate profits on PTA [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 0.7% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is stable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream demand is weakening due to the holiday [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price in East China is 3675 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, and the import is decreasing. The inventory is at a medium - high level, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider short - term long - positions as the inventory may start to decrease in March [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 7550 yuan/ton, and the trading is average [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - high level, and the styrene inventory is at a normal - low level. The supply and demand are both weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate widely in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 remained unchanged [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is at the bottom, and the supply is large. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to increased supply and weak demand [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were stable, and commodity futures were mixed, with the energy sector leading the increase [2][10][12] - The turnover of China's futures market in January 2026 reached RMB 100.26 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 105.14%, and the trading volume was 912.49 million contracts, a year - on - year increase of 65.09%. By the end of January, the total open interest increased by 14.65% month - on - month [3][37] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On Feb 10, in equity index futures, IH rose 0.4% and IC rose 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.01% and TL rose 0.01% [10] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 4.2% month - on - month), Sodium Hydroxide (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 13.9% month - on - month), and No.1 Soybean (up 2.4% with open interest increasing 27.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.6% with open interest increasing 8.9% month - on - month), Coke (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 4.3% month - on - month), and Coking Coal (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 6.4% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 476.1 yuan/barrel. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical factors frequently disrupt supply expectations. The short - term trend will be range - bound volatility. The current fundamentals are not optimistic, with high inventories and pressured refining margins. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran relationship and India's Russian crude imports, affect supply expectations and support oil prices [17][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 2,845 yuan/ton. The futures prices are at high levels. The expectation of rising oil production in Venezuela will weigh on HSFO in the long term, and short - term focus is on Middle East geopolitical developments. Key logics include the US - Iran negotiation situation, potential heavy oil supply increase from Venezuela, and the long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East [25][26][27] 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Ethenylbenzene**: On Feb 10, the front - month contract dropped 1.0% to 7,473 yuan/ton. The upward momentum has weakened recently due to three factors: crude oil prices near the upper end of the trading range, marginal loosening of supply and demand, and expected improvement in the overseas supply - demand balance. Although the seasonal inventory build - up in February is revised lower, the positive impact of exports on futures prices is gradually weakening [30][31][32] 3.2 China News - Industry News - **Stock Exchanges' Measures**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, streamlining the review process for high - quality listed companies and revising rules for "asset - light, high R&D investment" listed companies [37] - **Futures Market Turnover**: In January 2026, China's futures market recorded 912.49 million contracts traded and a turnover of RMB 100.26 trillion, up 65.09% and 105.14% year on year respectively, and the total open interest increased by 14.65% month on month by the end of January [37]