荷兰国际集团的James Smith表示，英国就业市场仍在降温。2025年第四季度失业率升至5.2%，同时薪 资增长放缓。Smith表示，大部分疲软表现集中在面向消费者的行业，这些行业去年受到政府政策变化 的沉重打击。在这些行业之外，情况看起来更为温和。他说："我们的基本预测是就业人数将进一步逐 步减少，而不是更急剧的恶化。"即便如此，鉴于职位空缺率较低以及移民增加缓解了雇主的招聘任 务，薪资增长可能会进一步放缓。Smith说："这就是为什么我们预计英国央行将在3月和6月降息——而 且我们不排除此后会采取进一步行动。" ...

英镑兑美元跌至11日低点，兑欧元跌至近一周低点，此前有数据显示，英国劳动力市场进一步降温，同 时薪资增长放缓。失业率从上一季度的5.1%意外升至5.2%。不含奖金的平均薪资当季增长4.2%，增速 低于此前的4.4%。11月至12月期间，在册员工人数减少了6,000人。该数据巩固了进一步降息的预期， 伦敦 证券交易所集团的数据显示，货币市场反映出3月份降息25个基点的可能性为72%。根据伦敦证券 交易所集团的数据，英镑在数据公布后跌至11日低点1.3549美元，数据公布前为1.3612美元。欧元从 0.8700英镑升至一周高点0.8730英镑。 ...

Group 1 - The UK unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest level in nearly five years, with total unemployment increasing by 158,000 to 1.832 million [1] - Total employment has decreased by 16,000 to 34.226 million, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline, primarily due to a reduction in full-time positions [1] - The average wage growth rate, excluding bonuses, has slightly decreased from 4.7% to 4.6% [1] Group 2 - The number of salaried employees in the UK fell by 38,000 to 30.3 million in November, marking a 0.1% month-on-month decline [1] - The wholesale and retail sector experienced the largest decline in employment, losing 70,000 jobs, while the health and social work sector saw an increase of 31,000 jobs [1] - The Bank of England is expected to restart its rate-cutting cycle, with a potential vote split of 5:4 in favor of the decision [2] Group 3 - The UK economy is showing signs of slowing down more than expected, which may lead to a faster decline in inflation [2] - The Bank of England is likely to emphasize that future decisions will depend on data, with a higher threshold for further rate cuts as policy approaches the so-called "neutral rate" [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of England may implement four rate cuts of 25 basis points each by July 2026, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.0% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the UK labor market is showing signs of cooling, but the pace may be slower than the Bank of England's expectations [1][2] - The annual salary growth rate, excluding bonuses, was reported at 5.0% for the three months ending in May, slightly above expectations [1] - The initial estimate of a 109,000 decrease in employment for May was significantly revised down to a reduction of 25,000, indicating a less severe job loss than initially thought [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England had previously predicted a salary growth rate of 5.2% for the three months ending in June, which has now been reported at 4.9% [2] - Employers are anticipating a reduction in hiring due to increased minimum wage, higher employer social security contributions, and tightening employment regulations [2] - The dual factors of reduced job vacancies and increased job seekers are key reasons for the Bank of England's expectation of a gradual pace of interest rate cuts despite inflation being above target [2]