AJ Bell分析师Laith Khalaf指出，由于英国通胀仍处于相对高位，英国央行在2026年可能实施的降息次 数将少于2025年，未来几个月降息步伐很可能会放缓。"此前的货币宽松政策仍在发挥作用，2026年全 年新增的刺激措施可能会十分有限。" 这些数据可能促使英国央行在9月和11月暂停降息后，于周四重启降息周期。尽管一些利率制定者仍担 心通胀粘性，但劳动力市场数据进一步证明，英国经济正在失去动力。 此前公布的数据显示，英国经济放缓幅度超出预期，这可能促使通胀更快回落。更近期的调查数据显 示，经济疲软态势仍在持续，很可能源于基本面恶化，而非预算引发的信心受挫。英国预算责任办公室 预计，由于持续的地缘政治不确定性以及企业和消费者信心低迷，近期经济的季度增长将仅会逐渐回 升。 经济学家预计，本周降息决定将以5:4的投票比例通过。丹斯克银行分析师表示，英国央行行长贝利将 转向支持降息阵营。 英国央行预计将重申利率可能逐步下行，但可能强调未来决策将依赖数据，并指出随着政策接近所谓 的"中性利率"，进一步降息的门槛将更高。德意志银行表示，英国GDP数据显示经济增长疲软，薪资增 速也在放缓，提高了降息的可能性。然而 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the UK labor market is showing signs of cooling, but the pace may be slower than the Bank of England's expectations [1][2] - The annual salary growth rate, excluding bonuses, was reported at 5.0% for the three months ending in May, slightly above expectations [1] - The initial estimate of a 109,000 decrease in employment for May was significantly revised down to a reduction of 25,000, indicating a less severe job loss than initially thought [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England had previously predicted a salary growth rate of 5.2% for the three months ending in June, which has now been reported at 4.9% [2] - Employers are anticipating a reduction in hiring due to increased minimum wage, higher employer social security contributions, and tightening employment regulations [2] - The dual factors of reduced job vacancies and increased job seekers are key reasons for the Bank of England's expectation of a gradual pace of interest rate cuts despite inflation being above target [2]