Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: October 29, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous workday [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.20, up 0.14 from the previous workday [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 9198, down 40 from yesterday's close [2] - AP05: 9684, down 10 from yesterday's close [2] - AP10: 8510, unchanged from yesterday's close [2] Price Differences - AP01 - AP05: -486, down 30 from the previous trading day [2] - AP05 - AP10: 1174, down 10 from the previous trading day [2] - AP10 - AP01: -688, up 40 from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from last week [5] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [5] - In the Shandong production area, the transaction price was stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was good. In the northwest production area, it was in the middle and late stages of acquisition, and most of the high - quality goods had been ordered and were being stored in cold storage. The market arrival volume was average, the shipment was stable, and the mainstream price was mainly stable [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [7] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of apples was stable. For semi - commercial apples above 70, the mainstream transaction price was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the apple price was stable. The price of new - season paper - bag Fuji apples above 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty [7] Group 4: Trading Logic - The high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples is poor this year due to weather reasons, with smaller fruit diameters, increased proportions of water cracks and mildew. The low high - quality fruit rate leads to a low apple warehouse - receipt production rate and high warehouse - receipt costs. Also, the poor - quality apples are difficult to preserve, and there are concerns that cold - storage apples may not last until long - term delivery. The expected low storage volume is due to the high cost and difficulty of purchasing high - quality goods by merchants. The apple market has been strong recently, but considering the large increase and high current prices, the upward space may be limited [8] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended that previous long positions take profits and wait and see [9][10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [18] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [18] Group 6: Related Attached Figures - Figures include prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, price differences between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in some markets, 6 kinds of fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple delivery volume [12][14][19][21][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term strategy of buying long positions on dips, indicating a positive view on the apple market [2] Report's Core View - New - season late - maturing Fuji high - quality supply proportion has declined significantly, and it is expected that the price difference between high - quality and ordinary fruits will gradually emerge, which is beneficial to the apple market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,850 yuan/ton, down 294 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 5,680 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 131,357 hands, down 11,529 hands [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) is 4 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 3.5 yuan/jin, down 0.2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China is 5,128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.62 yuan/kg, up 0.16834 yuan; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly apple cold - storage inventory in Shaanxi is 0, and the weekly apple cold - storage inventory in Shandong is 0.01, down 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is not provided with changes; the monthly apple export value is 6,973.9 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, down 0.3 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 7.6 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons is 4.44 yuan/kg; the weekly early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.6 vehicles, down 10.07 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 24.8 vehicles, down 20.53 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.67%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.68%, up 0.52% [2] Industry News - In Gansu, the procurement of merchants is in progress, with limited high - quality goods and firm prices. In Shaanxi, trading is limited, high - quality goods are hard to find, and the price of ordinary goods is chaotic with a slightly weakening trend. In Shandong, the acquisition of late Fuji has started, with low redness and average opening prices. In Liaoning, trading is active, with high - quality goods having a high price and ordinary goods being priced according to quality. In the west, the supply of new - season late - maturing Fuji has increased, with a significant price gap between high - quality and ordinary goods [2] 观点总结 - The high - quality supply of new - season late - maturing Fuji has decreased. In the Shandong region, affected by the weather, merchants have shifted to the west for procurement. In the sales market, the trading atmosphere is average, and the restocking of second - and third - level wholesalers is weak. It is expected that the proportion of high - quality fruits will decline, and the price difference between high - quality and ordinary fruits will gradually emerge [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily issued on April 10, 2024, by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D [2] Group 2: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 101.02, down 0.08 from the previous workday; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 7.49, down 0.05 [3] - Futures prices: AP01 was 7577, up 107; AP05 was 7900, up 124; AP10 was 7660, up 132 [3] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 was 523, down 107; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 was 200, down 124; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 was 440.0, down 132 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of March 19, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 5.0061 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234,500 tons, and the shipment speed decreased slightly [4] - In February 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.71% and a year - on - year increase of 54.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2025 was 0.38 million tons. In February 2024, the export volume was about 6.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February 2025 was about 15.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [7] - The apple market in the origin remained stable. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions were good, with high purchasing enthusiasm from merchants for high - quality goods. The market was generally good, with slightly increased arrivals and fast sales [7] - The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.5 yuan per catty, the same as last week [8] - Apple prices in Qixia, Shandong were stable. For 80 and above first - and second - grade apples, fruit farmers' film - red apples were 3.2 - 3.3 yuan per catty, striped apples were 3.5 - 3.8 yuan per catty. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, cold - storage apple prices were stable, and the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty [9] Trading Logic - The probability of a late spring cold has decreased, and the market may focus more on the demand side. However, the apple blossoms may be affected by strong winds in the northern region [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term trend of the October contract is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the price trends of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in markets, and 6 - fruit prices [16][17][18]