中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-09-28 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果个头同比偏小；2、新季苹果价格有高开预期；4、山东产区晚熟富士质量或偏差（果锈偏多）；4、西部部分产区质量偏差 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、高开秤价不利于消费；3、市场替代水果价格偏低 | | 市 | 产区方面：山东红将军进入尾声，西部采青逐步上市，价格偏高。晚熟富士方面，9月下旬，东部、西部产区逐步进入大量摘袋阶段。 | | 场 | 据调研，山东产区晚熟富士果锈较前期预期偏多，水裂纹发生率暂时偏低；西部产区果面洁净度稍有偏差，但仍在正常年份水平，局 | | 基 | | | 本 | 部产区水裂纹发生严重（水裂纹现象或是前期干旱，9月份阴雨天气偏多导致）。据天气预报，部分苹果产区有阴雨天气，需重点关 | ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-07-27 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果质量同比或将偏差；2、新季苹果价格仍有高开预期 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、库存苹果价格下跌；3、消费淡季苹果表现一般 | | | 山东产区：本周山东产区出库不快，调货客商微增，但仍旧是消费淡季，不少客商着急出库，使得库内成交价格偏弱，好货价格较稳定。栖 | | 市 | 霞地区客商采购的80#一二级片红苹果的价格区间为3.8 - 4.8元/斤；果农80#一二级片红苹果的价格区间则为3.0 - 4.2元/斤，环比上周微 | | 场 | 跌（数据来源：卓创资讯）。 | | 基 | 西部产区：近期西部产区出库持续偏慢，主要原因是总库存较少，且部分冷库有水烂发生，主要以客商走自存货为主。早熟苹果秦阳上市， | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely factors**: The quality of new - season apples may be worse year - on - year, and there is still an expectation of a high opening price for new - season apples [4]. - **Negative factors**: The output of new - season apples is basically the same as last year, the price of inventory apples is falling, and apples perform mediocrely during the off - season [4]. - **Market situation**: In Shandong, the outbound volume increased slightly this week, but it's still the off - season, and the transaction price in the warehouse is weak; in the western region, the outbound volume has been slow, with less total inventory and some water - rotted apples in cold storage. Early - maturing apples are on the market at a high price [4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: For single - side trading, lightly short at high positions; for inter - month trading, go long on 2510 and short on 2601; no recommendation for volatility and options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产区现货价格（洛川、栖霞） - Shandong: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 80 first - and second - grade striped red) in Qixia market is 4.05 yuan/jin [7]. - Western region: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 70 and above) in Luochuan market is 4.6 yuan/jin (data stopped updating) [7]. 3.2产区库存及出库情况 - As of July 17, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 5.56%, down 0.68 percentage points this cycle and 3.32 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 91.26%. As of July 16, 2025, the inventory in main apple - producing areas is 80.60 tons, a decrease of 10.89 tons from last week, and the sales speed has slightly improved [10]. 3.3批发市场苹果价格 - As of July 18, in Guangzhou wholesale market, the prices of Jingning 80 boxed, Luochuan 80 boxed, Qixia 80 boxed, and their corresponding basket - packed apples remained unchanged from last week [13]. 3.4平衡表（库存） No specific content provided. 3.5销区水果价格 - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits is 7.29 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week. The wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.89 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg; that of Kyoho grapes is 12.74 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg; bananas are 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg; pineapples are 6.48 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg; watermelons are 3.00 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg; citrus is 7.48 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg [24]. 3.6苹果基差及月间价差情况 - On July 18, the basis is 352, the 10 - 01 spread is 132, and the 11 - 01 spread is - 100 [28].