新季苹果陆续摘袋，盘面或兑现减产预期 苹果 2025 年 09 月 28 日 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果季报 主要结论 三季度苹果期货主力合约 AP2601 呈现偏强震荡的格局。 供应端来看，据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 9 月 25 日，全国冷库苹果的库 存量约 14.79 万吨，低于去年同期 10.75 万吨，处于往年历史同期最低水平。分 地区来看，目前山东产地冷库库存量约 10.96 万吨，陕西地区库存量约 3.69 万 吨，非主产区冷库剩余库存量约 0.14 万吨。客商采购难度增加，低库存量对盘 面形成一定支撑。陕西产区新季苹果逐步摘袋，今年果个偏小，果农对新季苹果 的价格预期较强。 需求端来看，中秋、国庆双节备货，需求有所恢复。据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 9 月 25 日，全国冷库库存比例约为 1.12%，周度环比下降 0.45 个百分点， 去库存率为 98.24%。因进入去库尾期，有部分样本点出现清库等情况，不同冷 库之间出货情况差异较大，数据误差略有扩大。卓创资讯将从下期开始暂停统计 旧季冷库苹果库存，预计新季苹果第一期库存 11 月 6 日统计，修正时间约为 1 个 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - **Market Fundamentals and Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the apple market. Positive factors include the potential for lower - quality new - season apples and the expectation of a high opening price. Negative factors are that the new - season apple production is basically the same as last year, the price of inventory apples is falling, and apple performance is average during the off - season. In August, the price of inventory apples in the production areas is stable, with a slightly improved but still slow出库 speed. The price of Crown pears shows a trend of low - opening, high - going, and then low - going. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price of new - season Fuji apples may be related to that of early - maturing and old - season apples [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to lightly short the 2601 contract at a high position. For the inter - month strategy, it is recommended to go long on 2510 and short on 2601. There are no recommendations for volatility and options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1产区现货价格 - Shandong production area: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 80 first - and second - grade striped red) in Qixia market is 3.9 yuan per catty. - Western production area: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 70 and above) in Luochuan market is 4.6 yuan per catty (data stopped updating) [9]. 3.2产区库存及出库情况 - According to Zhuochuang Information, as of August 7, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 3.91%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in this period, and 2.93 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 93.86%. - According to Mysteel data, as of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the national main production areas is 53.39 tons, a decrease of 8.02 tons from last week. The shipping speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as last year [12]. 3.3批发市场苹果价格 As of July 25, the prices of apples in the Guangzhou wholesale market are stable compared with last week. The prices of Jingning 80 boxed, Luochuan 80 boxed, and Qixia 80 boxed apples in both boxed and basketed forms have not changed [15]. 3.4平衡表（库存） There is no specific analysis content other than the title in the document. 3.5销区水果价格 - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits is 7.04 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from last week. - The wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of Kyoho grapes is 11.90 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.21 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of bananas is 5.46 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of pineapples is 6.77 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.09 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of watermelons is 2.79 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of citrus is 7.29 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per kilogram from last week [26]. 3.6苹果基差及月间价差情况 - The basis, 10 - 01 spread, and 11 - 01 spread of apples have different values on different dates from July 21 to August 8. For example, on August 8, the basis is - 123, the 10 - 01 spread is 139, and the 11 - 01 spread is - 139 [30]. 3.7苹果加权持仓量、成交量；前20净持仓图 There is no specific analysis content other than the trend chart in the document.