Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern. The low inventory in cold storage supported the market, and the demand recovered during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. The market generally believed that the number of bagged apples in the new season was slightly lower than the previous season. The purchase price of early - maturing apples in the Northwest was higher than last year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji was likely to be higher. The market might realize the previous减产 expectations, and the later driving logic would shift to the demand side. The current market might be at the top range, and it was recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, the main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern. The remaining inventory in cold storage was low, and the supply was concentrated in Shandong. The market generally believed that the number of bagged apples in the new season was slightly lower than the previous season. The purchase price of early - maturing apples in the Northwest was higher than last year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji was likely to be higher, keeping the market at a high - level shock [7]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Low Inventory at the End of Clearance**: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The cold - storage supply was mainly concentrated in Shandong, with mostly poor - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the new - season apples were gradually being unbagged, with small fruit sizes, and farmers had high price expectations [11]. - **Good Transaction during Festival Stocking**: The demand recovered during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 98.24%. The de - stocking progress of apples in the origin would only be significantly improved when the price dropped significantly [14][18]. - **Decrease in Fresh Apple Imports in August**: In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.33%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.99%. It was expected that the import volume in Q4 would decline [21]. - **Recovery of Fresh Apple Exports in Q3**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. It was expected that the export volume in Q4 2025 would increase quarter - on - quarter, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [24]. - **Seasonal Fruits Boost Apple Demand**: Seasonal fruits were gradually leaving the market, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The price of apples was affected by substitute fruits such as pears and seasonal fruits. The price of apples in 2025 showed a trend of rising first and then falling, remaining at a high level overall [27][29]. - **Stable and Strong Price of High - Quality Goods**: The current origin price was stable and strong, higher than the same period last year. The storage profit of high - quality goods in Qixia was 0.29 yuan per catty. The sales of cold - storage apples were approaching the end, and the later market fluctuations were limited. Farmers had high price expectations for the new - season apples, and the enthusiasm for storage might increase [34]. - **Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption**: According to five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases were mostly concentrated in the second half of the year, including September, November, and December. The months with a high probability of price decreases were April, August, and October [37][38]. - **New - Season Apples Being Unbagged**: The new - season late - maturing apples in the production areas were gradually entering the unbagging stage. The fruit size of late - maturing apples in Shaanxi was small, and the purchase was expected to start around the National Day. The purchase price of new - season late - maturing Fuji in Shaanxi might be higher than the same period last year [40]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern in Q3. The low inventory supported the market, and the demand recovered during the festivals. The market might realize the previous减产 expectations, and the later driving logic would shift to the demand side. The current market might be at the top range, and it was recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44][45].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - **Market Fundamentals and Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the apple market. Positive factors include the potential for lower - quality new - season apples and the expectation of a high opening price. Negative factors are that the new - season apple production is basically the same as last year, the price of inventory apples is falling, and apple performance is average during the off - season. In August, the price of inventory apples in the production areas is stable, with a slightly improved but still slow出库 speed. The price of Crown pears shows a trend of low - opening, high - going, and then low - going. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price of new - season Fuji apples may be related to that of early - maturing and old - season apples [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to lightly short the 2601 contract at a high position. For the inter - month strategy, it is recommended to go long on 2510 and short on 2601. There are no recommendations for volatility and options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1产区现货价格 - Shandong production area: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 80 first - and second - grade striped red) in Qixia market is 3.9 yuan per catty. - Western production area: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 70 and above) in Luochuan market is 4.6 yuan per catty (data stopped updating) [9]. 3.2产区库存及出库情况 - According to Zhuochuang Information, as of August 7, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 3.91%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in this period, and 2.93 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 93.86%. - According to Mysteel data, as of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the national main production areas is 53.39 tons, a decrease of 8.02 tons from last week. The shipping speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as last year [12]. 3.3批发市场苹果价格 As of July 25, the prices of apples in the Guangzhou wholesale market are stable compared with last week. The prices of Jingning 80 boxed, Luochuan 80 boxed, and Qixia 80 boxed apples in both boxed and basketed forms have not changed [15]. 3.4平衡表（库存） There is no specific analysis content other than the title in the document. 3.5销区水果价格 - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits is 7.04 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from last week. - The wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of Kyoho grapes is 11.90 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.21 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of bananas is 5.46 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of pineapples is 6.77 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.09 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of watermelons is 2.79 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of citrus is 7.29 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per kilogram from last week [26]. 3.6苹果基差及月间价差情况 - The basis, 10 - 01 spread, and 11 - 01 spread of apples have different values on different dates from July 21 to August 8. For example, on August 8, the basis is - 123, the 10 - 01 spread is 139, and the 11 - 01 spread is - 139 [30]. 3.7苹果加权持仓量、成交量；前20净持仓图 There is no specific analysis content other than the trend chart in the document.