大家好，我是乔叔，这次咱们聊聊茅台最近的冰火两重天，看看这个老牌白酒巨头在转型路上遇到了啥 难题。 2026年刚开年，北京和成都不少茅台经销商突然变得格外紧张。他们不是在等着酒涨价，而是在算怎么 把手里的茅台尽快卖出去。 过去只要把酒先囤为敬就稳赚的逻辑，现在不适用了，原本被当作保值神器的飞天茅台，此时成了经销 商最怕多留一天的风险品。 再加上今天的年轻人，更喜欢果酒、啤酒这些清爽的选择，搞投资的老手也逐步变得理性，没有哪个圈 子流行囤茅台升值了。 现在的市场，喝酒的人还在，但买酒囤着等升值的人越来越少，茅台的"硬货币"头衔也不再像以前那样 亮眼。 真正让大家坐立不安的是一直以来的配货规则。高价拿下的系列酒和生肖酒，卖出去不是赚钱，而是亏 本，卖一瓶亏一瓶。 飞天茅台批发价也一降再降，眼看着稳住的那点利润越来越薄，经销商急得心头发慌。 消费人群的变脸 这些变化不是无缘无故发生的。茅台市场的基础已经悄悄换了人。白酒的黄金年代靠的是商务宴请和送 礼撑场，一瓶酒在十几个人之间转来转去，但现在这类买单的人越来越少。 国家多次出台针对公款消费的政策限制，让高端白酒大批量进出餐桌的日子慢慢成为回忆。 产能扩大带来的新麻烦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor has experienced a significant decline, with wholesale prices dropping nearly 50% from three years ago, leading to a crisis of trust in the brand [1][3]. Price Collapse - In 2025, the price of Moutai liquor fell sharply, with the wholesale price of the 53-degree Flying Moutai dropping from 2,220 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year to 1,780 yuan by June 25, marking a decline of 440 yuan or 19.82% [3]. - By October, prices continued to decline, reaching a historical low of below 1,700 yuan during the autumn sugar and wine fair [3]. - Moutai's stock price has also suffered, dropping over 40% from its peak of 2,400 yuan in early 2021 [3]. Four Key Factors - The implementation of strict alcohol consumption policies in May 2025 has significantly impacted Moutai's market, reducing the proportion of government-related consumption from 40% in 2012 to 0.8% [5]. - An oversupply situation has emerged, with Moutai's base liquor production increasing from 49,900 tons in 2019 to 83,700 tons in 2024, leading to a loss of the brand's scarcity narrative [7]. - The rise of direct sales and e-commerce platforms has disrupted traditional distribution channels, with platforms like Pinduoduo offering Moutai at significantly lower prices [7]. - Changing consumer demographics, particularly among the younger generation, have shifted perceptions of Moutai from a luxury item to a tool for business gatherings [7]. Moutai's Response - Moutai has initiated measures to stabilize prices, including limiting supply to certain channels and engaging with major e-commerce platforms [9]. - The company has increased market inspections and will impose penalties on distributors who violate pricing regulations [11]. - Moutai has also introduced new products, such as the 70th Anniversary Five-Star Moutai priced at 7,000 yuan, which has seen resale prices soar on secondary markets [11]. Performance Resilience - Despite the price volatility, Moutai's financial performance remains robust, with a reported revenue of 506 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.54% [13]. - For the first half of 2025, Moutai achieved total revenue of 910.94 billion yuan, up 9.16% year-on-year, slightly exceeding its growth target [15]. Future Outlook - Market opinions on Moutai's future pricing are mixed, with some suggesting that prices near the production cost could lead to a halt in sales by distributors [17]. - Moutai has paused sales of its 500ml Flying Moutai in direct stores and is working with e-commerce platforms to manage online pricing, which may provide a rebound in demand during peak seasons [17]. - The company is focusing on transforming its customer base and service offerings to appeal to younger, high-net-worth individuals [20]. - Current inventory levels indicate a significant supply, with estimates suggesting that every Chinese household could receive nearly two bottles of Moutai [22].