在资本市场此时茅台股价与四年前的高光形成鲜明反差，舆论中看衰声音不绝于耳。 考虑到此前茅台也多次历经低谷（如2012年的白酒塑化剂风波），每次都是以售价和股价的下挫为代价，但经历低谷 之后，数据又都会回到正轨。 在零售价格的一路下行中，茅台这个昔日A股头号企业也已是风光不再，尤其最近传出"抖音封停低价茅台"，更是引 起市场强烈反应：原来茅台已经到了要严格"控价"的地步。 那么这次茅台的下行有什么特殊的地方呢？本文核心观点： 其一，茅台庞大的经销商体系为系列酒走量贡献颇大，但也是当前飞天甩货的主力； 其二，茅台的渠道控价能力已显疲态； 其三，茅台景气度盯紧应收票据和M1同比数据，拐点大概在2026年中。 经销商甩货：茅台失去控价能力 与所有白酒企业一样，茅台采取了"经销商+自营"的销售体系，尤其各地庞大的经销商群体更是链接各地优质客户资 源的桥梁，是茅台创造既往辉煌的一大功臣。 不过在现实运营中，经销商体系也暴露出种种弊端。 如腐败（历任茅台高管腐败均与此密不可分），又比如茅台集团失去对终端价格的控制力（53度飞天茅台1499的指导 价在零售市场形同虚设），又比如在茅台旺季之时，各地经销商会囤积居奇，不仅可以赚 ...

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points: - The overall performance of the baijiu industry in Q3 was under pressure, with most companies experiencing a decline in net profit, particularly those with significant revenue drops. [1][7] - Moutai maintained a stable performance with a 7% revenue increase, despite a drop in batch prices from 1,760 RMB to around 1,670 RMB, reflecting a more than 20% year-on-year decline. [1][10] - Wuliangye saw a significant revenue decline of 52% and a profit drop of 65%, indicating substantial pressure on its performance. [1][4] - Luzhou Laojiao performed better than expected, with effective strategies in place, although external environmental factors need to be monitored. [1][6] - The second-tier brand Fenjiu showed stable performance, with the Qinghua series growing by 9-10%, while Qinghua 30 experienced a decline of 20-30%. [1][5] - The overall baijiu sector is expected to continue adjustments in Q4 in preparation for the Spring Festival, which is a critical sales period. [1][8] Industry: Dairy Products Key Points: - The dairy sector faced weak terminal demand in Q3, with Yili's liquid milk revenue declining by 8.8%, while New Dairy achieved double-digit growth. [1][12] - The outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with expectations of continued pressure on liquid milk demand due to weak consumer confidence. [1][13] - New Dairy and Miaokelando are expected to maintain good growth through product innovation and market expansion. [1][13][14] Industry: Soft Drinks Key Points: - The soft drink industry showed stable performance in Q3, driven by strong travel demand and the introduction of new products. [1][15] - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 30.4% revenue increase, benefiting from new product launches, while competitors like Master Kong and Uni-President experienced revenue declines. [1][15][16] - Long-term growth prospects for Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring are viewed positively, while Master Kong and Uni-President are considered defensive dividend investment options. [1][18] Industry: Frozen Foods Key Points: - The frozen food sector is showing signs of stabilization, with demand not expected to worsen significantly. [1][20] - Leading companies are reducing expenditure, leading to some profit recovery, although growth rates remain modest. [1][20] - The industry is at a bottom turning point, with expectations for improvement in restaurant demand. [1][20] Industry: Snacks Key Points: - The snack sector saw slight revenue growth but at a slower pace, with rapid growth in bulk snack channels. [1][21] - New retail channels like Sam's Club are contributing significantly to revenue growth, despite some short-term impacts from public sentiment. [1][21] - The performance of key brands like Yanjin and Youyou has improved, indicating better operational efficiency and profitability. [1][25] Industry: Meat Products Key Points: - The meat product sector is considered a defensive dividend segment, with companies like Shuanghui Development and WH Group showing stable performance. [1][22] - Shuanghui's meat product sales remained steady, with a target of 30% growth in new channels for the upcoming year. [1][23] - WH Group's U.S. market performance was stable, with expectations for relatively stable pork prices in 2026. [1][24] Overall Market Performance Key Points: - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 5.5% decline as of October 31, 2025. [1][9] - The baijiu sector's valuation has decreased, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 18.9 times, lower than historical averages. [1][9] - Fund holdings in the baijiu sector have decreased, indicating potential for future capital inflow if demand improves. [1][9]

Core Viewpoint - The performance slowdown of Kweichow Moutai has significantly impacted its ecosystem, shifting distributors from a "lying down to earn" mode to a "survival" mode, with various market indicators reflecting this change [1][2]. Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 financial report shows the lowest revenue and net profit growth since 2015, with a revenue growth of 6.3% in the first three quarters. To meet the annual target of 9%, Q4 must achieve approximately 59 billion yuan in revenue, requiring a year-on-year growth of over 17% [2][3]. - The company’s revenue accounts for 22% of the overall sales in the liquor industry, indicating that its slowdown reflects broader industry pressures [2]. Market Dynamics - The pawn price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,000 yuan, leading some pawn shops to suspend alcohol collection. Additionally, scalpers have halted purchases due to daily losses, and the collectibles market has cooled significantly [1][2][5]. - The financial attributes of Moutai are diminishing, with fewer customers willing to pawn Moutai compared to gold, as the latter has retained higher value [6]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing a decline in customer demand, with many transitioning to alternative revenue streams, such as selling cigarettes and lottery tickets, to cope with the downturn [10][11]. - The sales of Moutai series liquor have also declined, with a 7.78% drop in revenue for the first three quarters, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics [11][12]. Leadership Changes - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing its fourth leadership change in five years, with the new chairman expected to bring new strategies and policies, which may create uncertainty among distributors and the market [2][3]. Collectibles and Market Sentiment - The collectibles market for Moutai has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping by at least one-third compared to previous acquisition prices, leading to a shift in management and operational strategies within Moutai's collectible associations [8][9]. - The belief in the value of Moutai is eroding, with former scalpers now shifting their focus to other products, indicating a broader loss of confidence in the Moutai brand [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor continues to decline, with specific price drops reported for various products, while the company shows slight revenue growth despite industry challenges [1][4]. Price Trends - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai original box decreased by 10 yuan to 1690 yuan per bottle, and the scattered bottle dropped by 20 yuan to 1660 yuan [1][2]. - The price of 24-year Flying Moutai original box fell by 30 yuan to 1750 yuan, while the scattered bottle decreased by 35 yuan to 1700 yuan [1][2]. - The price of 23-year Flying Moutai remained unchanged at 1950 yuan for the original and 1850 yuan for the scattered bottle [2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Moutai achieved revenue of 1284.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, up 6.25% [4]. - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 1105.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.28% increase, while series liquor revenue was 178.84 billion yuan [4]. - Direct sales channel revenue reached 555.55 billion yuan, and wholesale channel revenue was 728.42 billion yuan [4]. Distributor and Contract Liabilities - As of the end of Q3, Moutai had 2325 domestic distributors, an increase of 182 from the beginning of the year, and 121 international distributors, up by 17 [4]. - Contract liabilities amounted to 77.49 billion yuan, down from 95.92 billion yuan at the beginning of the year but up from 55.07 billion yuan at the end of Q2 [4]. Market Challenges and Strategic Focus - The company acknowledges the challenges in the current market, emphasizing the need for a resilient ecosystem centered on consumer needs and market demand [5]. - The management highlighted the importance of channel health and product adaptation in the face of market pressures [5]. Leadership Changes - Recent leadership changes include the resignation of Chairman Zhang Deqin, with Chen Hua being recommended as the new chairman [7]. Industry Context - The broader liquor industry is facing pressure, with 14 out of 21 listed companies experiencing declines in both revenue and net profit in the first half of the year [8]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation from "scale expansion" to "value elevation," with a focus on consumer and cultural reconstruction [8].

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 130.904 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.32%, with a total profit of 89.403 billion yuan, also up by 6.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.626 billion yuan, increasing by 6.25% [1] - The company is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on stabilizing its core Moutai liquor sales while intentionally slowing down the growth of its series liquor products [1][2] Revenue and Sales Performance - Moutai liquor, as the core product, achieved revenue of 110.514 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.28% [2] - The stable performance is attributed to Moutai's precise understanding of market conditions, with extensive market research conducted across various provinces to align with channel partners [2] Series Liquor Strategy - The series liquor segment has seen a decline, but management indicates this is a strategic decision to maintain channel resilience and long-term sustainability [3][4] - Moutai is focusing on consumer-centered strategies, enhancing channel development, product adaptation, and terminal experience to build a more resilient ecosystem [3] Future Transformation and Change - Moutai's market strategy emphasizes "transformation" and "change," with a focus on three key transformations: customer base, consumption scenarios, and service enhancements [6] - The company is implementing a systematic approach to product, channel, and terminal changes, aiming to create a comprehensive sales and service experience [6][7] Investor Relations and Value Management - Moutai is actively constructing a value management system that includes regular dividends, special dividends, share buybacks, and communication with investors, demonstrating a commitment to long-term value creation [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of investor returns and integrates value management into its governance and operational practices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is lackluster, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% despite a month-on-month improvement from July to August [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sales during the 2025 double festival are reported to be flat, with a significant demand gap remaining, particularly in the high-end and sub-high-end segments [1][4]. - The mid-to-low-end liquor sales are performing better than high-end and sub-high-end products, with banquet brands showing faster sales velocity [1][3]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines, while Fenjiu maintains upward momentum with stable pricing [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The recovery of government and business consumption demand is expected to take time, impacting high-end and sub-high-end liquor consumption in the short term [2][4]. - Attention should be focused on supply-side contraction signals from companies post-festival, which could catalyze the sector [2][4]. - Price indicators are anticipated to turn positive in 2026, potentially driving inflation and corporate profitability, leading to a sustained recovery in liquor demand [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies that are relatively healthy and have a positive market atmosphere, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [4]. - Companies that are innovating in channels and models, like Yingjia Gongjiu and Zhenjiu Lidu, are also highlighted as potential growth contributors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's 2025 interim report shows a revenue growth rate of only 9.1%, the lowest in nearly a decade, indicating a negative growth in Moutai series liquor revenue, reflecting the industry's adjustment period [3] Industry Overview - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a dual impact from macroeconomic cycles and industry adjustments, with companies preparing for the second half of the year by adopting strategies such as promoting low-alcohol liquor and improving manufacturer relationships [3][4] - The market for low-alcohol liquor (defined as below 30% alcohol content) is expected to reach a scale of 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 20% in recent years, driven by a young consumer demographic [5][6] Company Strategies - Major liquor companies are launching new low-alcohol products to cater to changing consumer preferences, with brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao announcing new low-alcohol offerings [3][4][5] - Water Well Square has also developed products below 38 degrees alcohol content, indicating a trend towards lower alcohol offerings [4] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on three transformations: customer base, consumption scenarios, and service, to adapt to the current market challenges [9] Market Sentiment - The liquor industry is facing a divided sentiment, with some companies expressing pessimism about the market while others maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook [7][10] - The overall market is characterized by weak recovery and strong differentiation, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye expected to stabilize first, while mid-range and regional brands continue to face pressure [10][11] Economic Context - The Chinese government's investment in infrastructure and consumption stimulus measures are expected to gradually benefit the liquor industry, with a notable increase in stock prices for liquor companies following positive economic indicators [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai remains relatively stable in a challenging market environment, but its financial report reveals underlying concerns, including lower-than-expected growth rates and increased sales expenses, accounts receivable, and notes receivable, indicating pressure on growth [1][3][4] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 910.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 454.03 billion, up 8.89% [5][6] - In Q2 2025, Moutai's revenue was 387.88 billion, a 7.28% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 185.55 billion, up 5.25%, both below market expectations [3][5] - The company's cash and cash equivalents reached 142.885 billion, with cash dividends of 34.671 billion and share buybacks of 5.202 billion completed [3][8] Cost and Expense Analysis - Sales expenses for the first half of the year increased by 24.56% to 32.6 billion, primarily due to higher advertising and marketing costs, reflecting pressure to maintain revenue growth [4][6] - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 64.18% to 13.119 billion, attributed to reduced deposits from group members and increased statutory reserves [8] Accounts Receivable and Inventory - Accounts receivable and notes receivable saw significant increases, with notes receivable rising by 41.9% to 2.816 billion and accounts receivable doubling to 0.38 billion [6][7] - The sales revenue of series liquor in Q2 showed a decline, with a decrease of 2.81 billion compared to Q1 [3][4] Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on international market expansion and engaging younger consumers, with overseas revenue surpassing 28.93 billion, a 31.29% increase [10][11] - Moutai aims to transform its market approach by targeting new consumer demographics and enhancing the overall consumer experience [10][11]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, with a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [1] - The production of Moutai base liquor reached approximately 43,700 tons, while the series liquor base liquor production was about 29,600 tons, indicating stable production quality [1] - The company has seen significant increases in direct sales, which accounted for 43.9% of total revenue, with direct sales revenue reaching 40.009 billion yuan, a growth of 18.63% [2] Financial Performance - Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor was 75.589 billion yuan, growing by 10.24%, while series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion yuan, increasing by 4.69% [1] - The gross margins for both product categories have decreased, with a reduction of 0.3 percentage points for Moutai liquor and 2.5 percentage points for series liquor [1] - The overseas revenue reached 2.893 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 31.29% [1] Market Strategy - The company is transitioning from a manufacturer-led market to a consumer-driven market, focusing on enhancing consumer experience and engagement [3] - Moutai is actively optimizing its distributor structure, adding 160 new series liquor distributors while reducing 23 Moutai liquor distributors [2] - The introduction of diverse and personalized products is aimed at meeting consumer demands, with recent launches selling out quickly [6] Growth Outlook - Moutai's second-quarter revenue was 39.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.26%, while net profit for the quarter was 18.55 billion yuan, up 5.25% [7] - The company is expected to maintain a long-term growth strategy, with a projected net profit of 93.2 billion yuan for 2025, and slight adjustments to forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [7] - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating, indicating confidence in Moutai's ability to navigate market uncertainties and achieve sustainable growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has released the first half report for the white liquor industry in 2025, indicating a slowdown in revenue growth amidst a broader industry adjustment period [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [1] - The second quarter revenue reached 38.788 billion yuan, growing by 7.28%, while net profit was 18.555 billion yuan, increasing by 5.25% [1] - The company has completed 47.99% of its annual revenue growth target of 189.817 billion yuan, which is set at 9% [1] Market Strategy - The company has implemented various market strategies to address supply-demand mismatches and explore new growth points, including launching new products and enhancing consumer reach [1][3] - New product launches include zodiac-themed liquor and other special editions, aimed at increasing market penetration [3] - The direct sales channel has seen significant growth, with revenue from direct sales reaching 40.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.63% [4] Channel Performance - The wholesale and agency channel revenue surpassed 49.343 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.83%, while the direct sales channel revenue has shown a strong increase [4] - The "i Moutai" platform generated 10.76 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 4.98% increase [4] Series Liquor Performance - The series liquor segment, positioned as a growth driver, reported revenue of 13.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.69%, but this is a significant slowdown compared to previous years [5][6] - In the second quarter, series liquor revenue declined by 6.52% to 6.741 billion yuan [5] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on transforming its business model and enhancing its presence in the C-end market, with initiatives such as new product specifications and recruitment of distributors [6] - Guizhou Moutai is also cleaning up its e-commerce channels and exploring new retail opportunities to adapt to changing market dynamics [6] - Recent fund inflows indicate continued investor confidence, with several funds significantly increasing their holdings in the company [6]