大家好，我是乔叔，这次咱们聊聊茅台最近的冰火两重天，看看这个老牌白酒巨头在转型路上遇到了啥 难题。 2026年刚开年，北京和成都不少茅台经销商突然变得格外紧张。他们不是在等着酒涨价，而是在算怎么 把手里的茅台尽快卖出去。 过去只要把酒先囤为敬就稳赚的逻辑，现在不适用了，原本被当作保值神器的飞天茅台，此时成了经销 商最怕多留一天的风险品。 再加上今天的年轻人，更喜欢果酒、啤酒这些清爽的选择，搞投资的老手也逐步变得理性，没有哪个圈 子流行囤茅台升值了。 现在的市场，喝酒的人还在，但买酒囤着等升值的人越来越少，茅台的"硬货币"头衔也不再像以前那样 亮眼。 真正让大家坐立不安的是一直以来的配货规则。高价拿下的系列酒和生肖酒，卖出去不是赚钱，而是亏 本，卖一瓶亏一瓶。 飞天茅台批发价也一降再降，眼看着稳住的那点利润越来越薄，经销商急得心头发慌。 消费人群的变脸 这些变化不是无缘无故发生的。茅台市场的基础已经悄悄换了人。白酒的黄金年代靠的是商务宴请和送 礼撑场，一瓶酒在十几个人之间转来转去，但现在这类买单的人越来越少。 国家多次出台针对公款消费的政策限制，让高端白酒大批量进出餐桌的日子慢慢成为回忆。 产能扩大带来的新麻烦 ...

1.茅台董事长陈华：聚焦"哪里买"，要找到"谁来买" 12月28日，2026年茅台经销商大会召开。茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华针对新年市场策略进行布局。他 表示，要让渠道更"活"，要聚焦"哪里买"，推动构建线上线下融合、传统现代互补的渠道网络；要找到"谁 来买"，主动拥抱新经济，拓展新客群；要让服务更"优"，增强消费体验，加强渠道生态韧性。 点评：2026茅台要发力了？ 2.ST葫芦娃：因涉嫌信息披露违法违规，收到证监会立案告知书 ST葫芦娃12月28日公告，公司及公司董事长刘景萍于12月26日分别收到证监会下发的《立案告知书》。因 公司及公司董事长刘景萍涉嫌信息披露违法违规，根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《中华人民共和国行政 处罚法》等法律法规，中国证监会决定对公司和刘景萍立案。目前，公司各项生产经营活动正常有序开 展，在立案调查期间，公司将积极配合中国证监会的相关调查工作，并严格按照有关法律法规及监管要求 履行信息披露义务。 3.晚期阿尔茨海默病治疗或有新突破口 记者28日从中国科学院昆明动物研究所获悉，该所近期与云南大学生命科学学院携手，通过研发调控葡萄 糖代谢、修复脑能量危机的新型活性化合物，成功逆转中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company held an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to communicate its operational status and the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating a steady momentum for Moutai liquor and improvements in sales and inventory ratios [1] Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation remains at "Buy," with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 71.95 CNY, 75.57 CNY, and 79.63 CNY respectively. The target price is maintained at 2040 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 27X for 2026. The proposed interim dividend for 2025 is 30 billion CNY, leading to an estimated current dividend yield of about 3.6% [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is characterized by principles of "proactive, scientific, and rational" planning, avoiding a purely metric-driven approach. The company aims for sustainable growth during this period, promising good shareholder returns from both growth and dividends [2] Quality and Innovation - Quality is emphasized as a foundational aspect, with the company adhering to the principle of prioritizing quality over quantity, cost, efficiency, and speed. Production capacity will be determined by ecological sustainability and skilled labor development, while sales volume will depend on market capacity [3] - The company is advancing its digital traceability system, expected to show significant improvements by 2026, enhancing consumer rights protection [3] Youth and Internationalization - The younger demographic and international markets are identified as potential growth drivers. The company plans to address the diverse drinking preferences of different age groups through innovative strategies to overcome barriers related to taste, culture, and pricing [3] - The internationalization strategy remains a "three-step" approach, with adjustments to product strategies based on practical experiences. The company aims to gradually penetrate international markets with suitable products and packaging [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes a commitment to high-quality, sustainable development while addressing shareholder concerns and maintaining operational resilience during industry adjustments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Meeting Insights - The shareholder meeting held on November 28 featured the election of directors, mid-term profit distribution, and a new round of share buybacks [1]. - The new chairman, Chen Hua, highlighted the importance of high-quality development and sustainable value creation in his speech [1]. - The atmosphere of the meeting was warm and sincere, with efforts made to enhance shareholder experience through thoughtful arrangements [1]. Group 2: Long-term Development Commitment - Chairman Chen expressed gratitude for shareholders' long-term support and outlined four commitments: avoiding a focus solely on metrics, not sacrificing long-term development for short-term gains, adhering to market principles, and protecting the rights of investors, distributors, and consumers [2]. - The company aims to address fundamental market adaptation issues through three transformations and three changes in strategy, focusing on maintaining product quality and strengthening channel resilience [2]. Group 3: Marketing and Operational Strategies - The management team, led by General Manager Wang Li, discussed strategies to enhance operational resilience, including careful management of production capacity and product release based on market demand [3]. - The marketing strategy centers on consumer needs, aiming to break supply-demand mismatches and engage new customer segments, particularly through partnerships with new economy enterprises [3]. - The company is also focusing on international market expansion and youth engagement through cultural experiences and innovative product offerings [3]. Group 4: Management and Market Response - The new chairman has quickly fostered unity within the management team, demonstrating effective execution in response to market changes [4]. - The company is committed to shareholder value enhancement through dividends, buybacks, and group shareholding strategies, with a current dividend payout ratio of 75% and an estimated dividend yield of around 3.8% [4]. - The stock price has shown stability despite market fluctuations, with a noted weakening correlation between stock price and liquor prices, indicating a potential bottoming out [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a target price of 2600 yuan and a "strong buy" rating, emphasizing its long-term value focus and commitment to high-quality development amidst industry challenges [4]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 72.44, 74.89, and 80.18 yuan, respectively, supporting the investment thesis [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite the deep adjustment period in the liquor industry, the company sees both challenges and opportunities, committing to quality over mere metrics and ensuring the rights of investors, distributors, and consumers are protected [1] - The company's "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on differentiated development of Moutai liquor and series liquor, addressing consumer demand pain points while leveraging its core advantages in quality, brand, and culture [2] - The company aims to maintain stability in scale, speed, and efficiency while adapting to changing consumer trends, particularly in the series liquor segment, which will support international expansion [2] Group 2 - The company is implementing a youth-oriented strategy centered on age-specific consumption characteristics, promoting brand renewal through cultural projects and innovative products [3] - The company plans to enhance its digital capabilities and innovation platforms while maintaining traditional brewing techniques, projecting revenues of 189.93 billion, 198.89 billion, and 208.66 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 91.82 billion, 96.05 billion, and 100.53 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new chairman of Kweichow Moutai, Chen Hua, emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development and sustainable value creation, addressing market and investor concerns during his first appearance at the shareholders' meeting [2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Philosophy - Kweichow Moutai adheres to the principle of "four obeys," prioritizing quality over production volume, cost, efficiency, and speed, ensuring long-term development is not sacrificed for short-term gains [2][5]. - The company aims to respond to future uncertainties with its own certainties, focusing on satisfying consumers, employees, shareholders, and partners while maintaining social recognition [5]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The white liquor industry is currently in a "stock competition" phase, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and slowing growth rates, but Chen believes that opportunities outweigh these challenges [3]. - The confidence in Moutai's future is based on three factors: the vast potential of the domestic market, the deep cultural roots of the liquor industry, and the company's resilience through multiple economic cycles [3]. Group 3: Financial Actions and Shareholder Returns - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan, and intends to repurchase shares worth between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan at a maximum price of 1887.63 yuan per share [4]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - The company will focus on five key areas: maintaining quality, transforming marketing, enhancing cultural value, advancing digital and green transitions, and practicing ESG principles [6]. - Moutai aims to improve consumer purchasing experiences through digital marketing and better integration of online and offline channels [6]. Group 5: Responses to Shareholder Concerns - In response to shareholder inquiries, Moutai management discussed the balance between supply and demand, emphasizing careful management of production capacity and market release [7]. - The company maintains a "three-step" internationalization strategy, focusing on expanding in Southeast Asia and optimizing existing markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing structural upgrades and innovative transformations, with a focus on premium brands and channel optimization, while e-commerce and younger consumer demographics are injecting new vitality into the market [2][3]. Industry Situation - The overall revenue of Guizhou Moutai for the first nine months of this year reached 130.904 billion yuan, with a net profit of 64.627 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.32% and 6.25% respectively [3]. - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase, and the company is focusing on adapting to new market conditions and challenges while leveraging its quality, brand, and cultural advantages [3]. Business Planning - The Moutai liquor segment aims to maintain stability in scale, speed, and efficiency while expanding its market position, and will adapt to new consumer trends [4]. - The series liquor segment will focus on enhancing market competitiveness and sustainable development through channel resilience and health [4]. Product Release Strategy - The company is adjusting its product release rhythm based on market capacity and ecological carrying capacity, ensuring quality and stability in production [6][10]. - Moutai plans to store more base liquor during industry downturns to enhance quality and prepare for future market recovery [6]. Young Consumer Strategy - Moutai's strategy for targeting younger consumers is comprehensive and not limited to merely appealing to youth; it involves understanding the diverse needs of different age groups [7][9]. - The company emphasizes brand rejuvenation, technological innovation, and a modern management system to resonate with younger demographics [10]. E-commerce Trends - Moutai is facing challenges from low-price competition and counterfeit products on e-commerce platforms, prompting the company to enhance its anti-counterfeiting measures and maintain cooperative relationships with these platforms [12][13]. - The company is working on optimizing the online consumption environment by encouraging compliance among traditional distributors entering e-commerce [13].

Core Viewpoint - The new chairman of Kweichow Moutai, Chen Hua, emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development and sustainable value creation, addressing market and investor concerns during the recent shareholder meeting [2][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Kweichow Moutai adheres to the principle of "four obeys," prioritizing quality over production volume, cost, efficiency, and speed, ensuring long-term development is not sacrificed for short-term gains [2][5]. - The company plans to focus on five key areas: maintaining quality foundations, advancing market-oriented marketing transformation, enhancing cultural value, promoting digital and green transformation, and practicing ESG principles [6]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The white liquor industry is currently in a "stock competition" phase, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and slowing growth rates, but Chen believes that opportunities outweigh these challenges [3][4]. - The confidence in Kweichow Moutai's future is based on three factors: the large domestic market potential, the deep cultural roots of the liquor industry, and the company's resilience through multiple economic cycles [3]. Group 3: Financial Actions - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan, and intends to repurchase shares worth between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Internationalization and Brand Protection - The company maintains a "three-step" strategy for internationalization, focusing on product export, overseas expansion, and creating international value [7][8]. - Kweichow Moutai has established a special protection mechanism against counterfeiting, allocating funds for regular inspections and legal actions against counterfeit products [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by Moutai, particularly its declining pricing power and the impact of its distribution system on sales and profitability [3][10]. Group 1: Distribution System and Pricing Control - Moutai's extensive distributor network has significantly contributed to the sales of its series of products, but it has also become a major factor in the current oversupply of its flagship product, Flying Moutai [3][4]. - The company's ability to control prices through its distribution channels has weakened, leading to a situation where the suggested retail price of Flying Moutai (1499 yuan) is often disregarded in the market [5][10]. - The distributor system, while initially beneficial, has revealed issues such as corruption and a lack of control over end prices, which has resulted in distributors hoarding stock during peak seasons to maximize profits [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - Moutai's series of products have seen a significant increase in gross margin, rising from below 50% in 2016 to over 70% in 2024, indicating strong demand driven by the brand's prestige [8]. - The current market environment is characterized by a severe destocking cycle affecting both series products and Flying Moutai, with a shift from social destocking to channel destocking [11][12]. - Key indicators for Moutai's market conditions include accounts receivable and M1 growth rates, with M1 growth serving as a leading indicator for price changes in Flying Moutai [14][17]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The turning point for Moutai's market conditions is anticipated around mid-2026, contingent on improvements in external economic indicators and the company's ability to manage its distributor relationships effectively [12][17]. - The current situation reflects a struggle between distributors eager to convert inventory into cash and the company's concerns about maintaining price stability, suggesting that simply halting low-price promotions may not suffice to control the situation [10][17].

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points: - The overall performance of the baijiu industry in Q3 was under pressure, with most companies experiencing a decline in net profit, particularly those with significant revenue drops. [1][7] - Moutai maintained a stable performance with a 7% revenue increase, despite a drop in batch prices from 1,760 RMB to around 1,670 RMB, reflecting a more than 20% year-on-year decline. [1][10] - Wuliangye saw a significant revenue decline of 52% and a profit drop of 65%, indicating substantial pressure on its performance. [1][4] - Luzhou Laojiao performed better than expected, with effective strategies in place, although external environmental factors need to be monitored. [1][6] - The second-tier brand Fenjiu showed stable performance, with the Qinghua series growing by 9-10%, while Qinghua 30 experienced a decline of 20-30%. [1][5] - The overall baijiu sector is expected to continue adjustments in Q4 in preparation for the Spring Festival, which is a critical sales period. [1][8] Industry: Dairy Products Key Points: - The dairy sector faced weak terminal demand in Q3, with Yili's liquid milk revenue declining by 8.8%, while New Dairy achieved double-digit growth. [1][12] - The outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with expectations of continued pressure on liquid milk demand due to weak consumer confidence. [1][13] - New Dairy and Miaokelando are expected to maintain good growth through product innovation and market expansion. [1][13][14] Industry: Soft Drinks Key Points: - The soft drink industry showed stable performance in Q3, driven by strong travel demand and the introduction of new products. [1][15] - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 30.4% revenue increase, benefiting from new product launches, while competitors like Master Kong and Uni-President experienced revenue declines. [1][15][16] - Long-term growth prospects for Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring are viewed positively, while Master Kong and Uni-President are considered defensive dividend investment options. [1][18] Industry: Frozen Foods Key Points: - The frozen food sector is showing signs of stabilization, with demand not expected to worsen significantly. [1][20] - Leading companies are reducing expenditure, leading to some profit recovery, although growth rates remain modest. [1][20] - The industry is at a bottom turning point, with expectations for improvement in restaurant demand. [1][20] Industry: Snacks Key Points: - The snack sector saw slight revenue growth but at a slower pace, with rapid growth in bulk snack channels. [1][21] - New retail channels like Sam's Club are contributing significantly to revenue growth, despite some short-term impacts from public sentiment. [1][21] - The performance of key brands like Yanjin and Youyou has improved, indicating better operational efficiency and profitability. [1][25] Industry: Meat Products Key Points: - The meat product sector is considered a defensive dividend segment, with companies like Shuanghui Development and WH Group showing stable performance. [1][22] - Shuanghui's meat product sales remained steady, with a target of 30% growth in new channels for the upcoming year. [1][23] - WH Group's U.S. market performance was stable, with expectations for relatively stable pork prices in 2026. [1][24] Overall Market Performance Key Points: - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 5.5% decline as of October 31, 2025. [1][9] - The baijiu sector's valuation has decreased, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 18.9 times, lower than historical averages. [1][9] - Fund holdings in the baijiu sector have decreased, indicating potential for future capital inflow if demand improves. [1][9]