Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai is declining, prompting the company to establish joint venture companies with provincial distributors to stabilize market prices and develop regional cultural products [1][3][7]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 24, 2023, the price of 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1870 yuan per bottle for loose packaging and 1920 yuan for boxed packaging, representing a decline of approximately 15.77% and 17.06% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [8][9]. - The average price of Feitian Moutai peaked in February 2023, with loose packaging averaging 2218.85 yuan per bottle, and has shown a downward trend since then [8]. - Compared to the same period last year, the prices have decreased by 21.92% for loose packaging and 26.15% for boxed packaging [9]. Group 2: Joint Venture Company Strategy - Moutai is moving forward with plans to establish joint venture companies led by provincial distributors, with registered capital set between 50 million to 100 million yuan [3][4]. - The joint venture companies will focus on two main functions: stabilizing the price of Feitian Moutai and developing culturally themed Moutai products tailored to regional markets [3][4]. - The initiative is seen as a response to the challenges posed by the current market environment, including supply-demand imbalances and price pressures [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Context - Moutai's strategy of collaborating with distributors is built on past experiences, including the 2014 expansion of distributor recruitment and the 2016 establishment of provincial joint venture companies [4][5]. - The previous attempts at channel management were primarily policy-driven, while the current strategy is influenced by economic downturns and reduced consumer demand [6]. Group 4: Cultural Product Development - The joint venture companies will also focus on developing regional cultural products, which are seen as a potential growth area amid a competitive market [12][13]. - The cultural product market, particularly zodiac-themed products, has shown significant growth, with the market size exceeding 20 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of over 30% [12]. - However, challenges such as market saturation and consumer acceptance remain, necessitating innovative approaches in product development [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered a "myth of only rising," has experienced a significant decline, leading to substantial losses for investors and a panic sell-off in the market [1][3]. Price Movement - On July 15, 2023, the price of 2025 Flying Moutai dropped from 1940 yuan to 1930 yuan, while the price of scattered bottles fell from 1880 yuan to 1870 yuan. The 2024 Flying Moutai also saw a decline, with original box prices dropping from 1960 yuan to 1950 yuan and scattered bottle prices falling below 1850 yuan [1][8]. - The price of Moutai 1935 plummeted to 590 yuan per bottle on e-commerce platforms, only 30% of the official guide price. Compared to the peak price of over 4000 yuan in 2021, Moutai prices have shrunk by more than 30% [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to three main factors: the implementation of the strictest "ban on alcohol," a downturn in the real estate sector affecting business banquets, and an oversupply in the market with social inventory reaching 120 million bottles [3][4]. - The demand for Moutai in business settings has significantly decreased, leading to a loss of a crucial consumer base [4]. Inventory Pressure - The total inventory, including Moutai's own stock, amounts to 560 million bottles, indicating an average of nearly 2 bottles per Chinese household. Approximately 60% of unopened Moutai is being liquidated by speculators, exacerbating the market's downward pressure [4][5]. Channel Transformation - The rise of e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo has driven down the price of Flying Moutai to the range of 1700-1800 yuan, below many distributors' costs. Moutai is also increasing its direct sales through the iMoutai app, raising the direct sales ratio to 45% [5][6]. Industry Impact - Moutai's price collapse has affected the entire liquor industry, with the price range of 1000 yuan being breached. Other liquor companies, such as Wuliangye, are also under pressure to maintain their price points [6][7]. Consumer Trends - The consumption of liquor has been declining, with the industry experiencing an 8-year consecutive drop in production. The younger generation shows a decreasing interest in liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming it, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7][10]. - Moutai's attempts to attract younger consumers through new products have not yielded positive results, indicating a struggle to connect with this demographic [10].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in Moutai's wholesale prices is triggering a series of chain reactions in the market, leading to measures aimed at stabilizing prices and limiting supply channels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Control Measures - Provincial distributors' associations have reached a consensus to limit supply to e-commerce, wholesale markets, and out-of-province channels to stabilize Moutai prices [1]. - The association plans to enhance market inspections and implement a receiving mechanism, with penalties for violations including suspension of supply and contract cancellations [1][2]. - Previous measures included halting corporate group purchases and limiting direct supply to certified enterprises, indicating ongoing efforts to control pricing [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite these measures, Moutai's prices have continued to slide, with the wholesale price of 2025 53-degree Moutai reported at around 2000 yuan per bottle, reflecting a decline of 30 yuan [2][6]. - The introduction of new regulations limiting high-end dining and drinking in government settings is expected to further suppress demand for premium liquor, impacting overall consumption [5][9]. - The recent surge in e-commerce promotions has exacerbated price declines, with Moutai being sold at significantly lower prices during sales events [6][8]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The price collapse of Moutai could severely impact distributor profits, as the cost of acquiring Moutai is higher than the selling price [7][8]. - The decline in Moutai prices serves as a psychological anchor for the high-end liquor market, potentially affecting market sentiment and leading to broader price pressures across the industry [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The market price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan/bottle, indicating a significant adjustment in the pricing system and reflecting profound changes in the high-end liquor market due to various macroeconomic factors, consumption scenarios, and channel transformations [1] Price Fluctuation Trajectory - Feitian Moutai has historically exhibited a "dual-track" pricing feature, with an official guide price of 1499 yuan/bottle, while market prices have been consistently higher. In 2024, the market price reached 2850 yuan/bottle, but by June 2025, it fell to 1980 yuan/bottle, marking a decline of 10% from the beginning of the year [2] - The price drop is significant compared to previous years, with 2023 prices at 2820 yuan/bottle and 2024 prices at 2485 yuan/bottle [2] Market Driving Factors - The decline in Feitian Moutai's price is attributed to structural adjustments in supply and demand. On the supply side, Moutai has adopted a strategy of "increased volume + non-standard product launches," leading to a higher distribution ratio in traditional sales channels [4] - On the demand side, the contraction of consumption scenarios and a rational return of consumers are critical factors. New regulations limiting high-end liquor consumption in government settings have reduced demand [6] Channel Ecology Adjustment - The price drop has compressed profit margins for Moutai distributors, leading to decreased enthusiasm for promoting other Moutai products. The decline in Feitian Moutai's price has resulted in reduced profits, affecting the marketing of other products [11] - Distributors face inventory pressure and profit compression, with some opting to sell off stock, exacerbating price declines [7] Industry Landscape Restructuring - The drop in Feitian Moutai's price has implications for other mid-to-high-end liquor brands, as Moutai's pricing adjustments often trigger a chain reaction in the industry. Brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 may face downward price pressure [12][14] - The overall price level in the industry may decline, impacting profit margins for various companies [14] Short-term Volatility and Long-term Value Recovery - In the short term, Feitian Moutai's price may continue to face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and ongoing inventory issues [15] - However, the brand's value and scarcity attributes provide long-term price support, with potential recovery in demand as the economy improves [17]

Core Viewpoint - The market circulation price of Feitian Moutai has recently fallen below 2000 yuan per bottle, raising concerns about its implications for Kweichow Moutai and the future price trend of Feitian Moutai [1][3][10]. Price Trends - As of June 11, the price of Feitian Moutai was reported at 1990 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, and further declined to 1980 yuan on June 12 [3][8]. - The price has been on a downward trend, dropping from 2090 yuan per bottle a month ago and from around 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating a decline of approximately 10% [3][4]. - In early 2024, the price was as high as 2600-2700 yuan per bottle before starting to decrease [3]. Other Moutai Products - Other Moutai products are also experiencing price declines. For instance, Moutai 15 years was priced at 4570 yuan per bottle on June 11, down from 4750 yuan a month prior [4]. - Various Moutai products, including Moutai Prince and Moutai Zodiac, have seen significant price drops, with Moutai Prince falling from a peak of 4500 yuan to around 2580 yuan [7]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - The price drop is attributed to several factors, including e-commerce platforms offering low-priced Feitian Moutai during promotional events like "6·18," with prices as low as 1499 yuan [8][9]. - The recent "ban on alcohol" policy, which restricts high-end alcohol consumption in official settings, has also contributed to reduced demand for premium products like Feitian Moutai [8][9]. - The current period is traditionally a low season for liquor consumption, further exacerbating the price decline [9]. Future Price Outlook - The breach of the 2000 yuan mark for Feitian Moutai could signal a shift towards its suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, potentially losing its premium status [10]. - Analysts predict that the overall market for high-end liquor will continue to face challenges, with expectations of further price declines in the coming months due to high inventory and reduced demand [10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle, with a decline of over 10% compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai reached 2020 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 2080 yuan for boxed bottles [2]. - The retail price in some Beijing stores is around 2100-2300 yuan per bottle, with indications that prices may rise slightly after mid-July due to seasonal demand [2]. - The recovery price for loose bottles has fallen below 2000 yuan, reaching 1970 yuan, marking a historical low [6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the end of the peak consumption season around the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a seasonal downturn in white liquor sales [6][7]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly during the "6·18" sales event, have further pressured prices, with some platforms offering Moutai at prices as low as 1499 yuan [7][8]. Supply Chain and Distribution - Moutai has increased the distribution of non-standard products, which has affected the demand for Feitian Moutai, contributing to the price drop [8]. - The company has implemented measures to control supply, including halting direct sales of 500ml Feitian Moutai and freezing a portion of inventory to stabilize prices [8][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai plans to adjust its product structure across various sales channels to enhance consumer reach and improve operational capabilities [9]. - The company aims to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and preferences by exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional gifting and dining occasions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price drop of Feitian Moutai reflects a shift in supply and demand dynamics, as well as changes in the company's marketing strategy, leading to a more accessible pricing structure for consumers [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below 2000 yuan, with retail prices around 2100 to 2200 yuan, indicating a significant change in market conditions [3]. - The demand for Moutai has decreased due to fewer business banquets and a reduction in speculative buying, resulting in excess inventory at retailers [3]. - The supply side has remained stable, with the company continuing to supply products despite the price drop, contrasting with previous practices of limiting supply to maintain prices [3]. Group 2: Company Strategy Changes - Moutai has shifted from a "hunger marketing" strategy to a "volume expansion" approach, increasing direct sales from 20% to over 30% through platforms like iMoutai [3]. - The introduction of the "Xunfeng Digital World" initiative allows consumers to purchase directly from the factory, reducing the role of middlemen and leading to price reductions [3]. - Plans for increased production of base liquor are expected to further enhance supply, putting additional pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Despite short-term price pressures, Moutai's brand strength, craftsmanship, and scarcity remain intact, with a reported net profit of over 80 billion yuan and a gross margin exceeding 90% [4]. - The company is focusing on channel reforms and increasing the proportion of direct sales, which could lead to more transparent pricing and improved profit retention [4]. - Moutai is also expanding its product range with high-end offerings like 1935 and zodiac wines, which may help mitigate the impact of price declines on Feitian Moutai [4]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to monitor the sustainability of the increase in direct sales and the growth of high-end products, as these factors will influence future valuation [4][5]. - The current price fluctuations are seen as a normal part of market behavior, and a long-term perspective is encouraged for assessing Moutai's position in the industry [5].

Industry Dynamics - In March, the production of liquor by large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, totaling 378,000 kiloliters, with a cumulative production of 1,032,000 kiloliters in the first three months, down 7.3% year-on-year [4] - Beer production increased by 1.9% year-on-year in March, reaching 3,128,000 kiloliters, but the cumulative production for the first three months fell by 2.2% [4] - Wine production saw a significant decline of 25% year-on-year in March, with a total of 9,000 kiloliters produced, and a cumulative production of 24,000 kiloliters in the first three months, also down 25% [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a list of 40 key traditional food industries for cultivation, including liquor categories such as Baijiu, Huangjiu, and wine, aimed at boosting economic development and enhancing domestic demand [4] - Five liquor enterprises were recognized in the national-level skills master studio list, highlighting the industry's focus on skill development and training [7] Company Dynamics - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit of 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% [8] - Shanghai Gui Jiu (Rocky Co.) reported a revenue of 285 million yuan, a significant decline of 82.54%, with a net loss of 217 million yuan, down 349.63% [9] - Tianyoude Jiu reported a revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%, but a net profit decline of 52.96% to 42.135 million yuan [10] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [10] - Moutai achieved sales exceeding 10 million yuan during the China International Consumer Products Expo, showcasing strong consumer interest in its products [10] - Luzhou Laojiao received the first data intellectual property registration certificate in the liquor industry for real-time monitoring data of bottled liquor, indicating a focus on quality control [11] - Yanghe Baijiu's cellar group was certified by Guinness World Records as the largest scale of liquor cellars, emphasizing the company's production capacity [11]