Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views on Oils Palm Oil - Production in the origin is expected to increase month-on-month, and the seasonal production increase is approaching, increasing the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, with the weakening of the origin's quotation, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the price difference [3]. Soybean Oil - On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Recently, due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy - based trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a phased peak, and the expected marginal reduction speed will accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is always in an unfavorable range for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. Rapeseed oil consumption also remains at the rigid - demand level. There is currently high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Spreads Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 114 yuan/ton, down 14; P 5 - 9 is - 118 yuan/ton, up 22; P 9 - 1 is 4 yuan/ton, down 8; Y - P 01 is - 424 yuan/ton, up 26; Y - P 05 is - 602 yuan/ton, up 48; Y - P 09 is - 376 yuan/ton, up 18; Y 1 - 5 is 292 yuan/ton, down 36; Y 5 - 9 is - 344 yuan/ton, up 52; Y 9 - 1 is 52 yuan/ton, down 16; Y/M 01 is 2.5735, down 1.86%; Y/M 05 is 2.7688, down 1.39%; Y/M 09 is 2.6177, down 2.17%; OI 1 - 5 is 168 yuan/ton, down 9; OI 5 - 9 is - 262 yuan/ton, up 2; OI 9 - 1 is 94 yuan/ton, up 7; OI/RM 01 is 3.9924, down 1.45%; OI/RM 05 is 3.92, down 1.14%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5958, down 1.72% [4] Group 4: Palm Oil Price Information - Palm oil 01 is 8338 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; Palm oil 05 is 8230 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; Palm oil 09 is 8344 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; BMD palm oil main contract is 3991 ringgit/ton, up 0.2%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8460 yuan/ton, down 20; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 154 yuan/ton, up 54; POGO is 382.072 US dollars/ton, down 1.168; International soybean oil - palm oil is 49.91 US dollars/ton, up 22.5 [6] Group 5: Soybean Oil Price Information - Soybean oil 01 is 7938 yuan/ton, down 1.27%; Soybean oil 05 is 7626 yuan/ton, down 0.87%; Soybean oil 09 is 7984 yuan/ton, down 1.45%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.66 cents/pound, down 1.83%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8080 yuan/ton, down 20; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 150 yuan/ton, up 16; BOHO (weekly) is 66.472 US dollars/barrel, down 10.7912; Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil is - 320 yuan/ton, down 20 [12] Group 6: Oilseeds Market Analysis Imported Soybeans - In terms of purchases, the appreciation of the Brazilian real has strengthened the Brazilian quotation. Commercial purchases are concentrated in near - month Brazil, Argentina, and next - year Brazil. As it gradually enters the fourth - quarter purchase cycle, the purchase progress is slower than the same period last year. In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on China - US relations [15]. Domestic Soybean Meal - The supply - side pressure is still the main factor suppressing the spot price. As the soybean meal 07 contract gradually enters the delivery month, the spot pressure will continue to be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is relatively abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume is increasing month - on - month. Some regions are starting to urge提货. On the demand side, the previous soybean meal pickup was good, and the middle and downstream are mainly executing previous contracts. However, from the actual downstream physical inventory, soybean meal has not been transferred to the end - users, and the apparent consumption is mainly concentrated in middle - stream traders. Therefore, the basis and spot prices are expected to remain under pressure [15]. Rapeseed Meal - The inventory reduction of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream generally lacks cost - effectiveness in adding rapeseed meal. Recently, there has been news about the WTO establishing a panel to investigate the China - Canada tariff issue, and the market has repeatedly priced this information with little elasticity. The subsequent logic will mainly follow soybean meal, and its own market is expected to be weak [15] Group 7: Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01 closes at 3030, down 39, - 1.27%; Soybean meal 05 closes at 2723, down 24, - 0.87%; Soybean meal 09 closes at 2993, down 44, - 1.45%; Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2327, down 47, - 1.98%; Rapeseed meal 05 closes at 2343, down 32, - 1.35%; Rapeseed meal 09 closes at 2588, down 74, - 2.78%; CBOT yellow soybeans close at 1037, unchanged, 0% [16] Group 8: Oilseeds Price Spreads Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9; The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2880, down 20; The basis of soybean meal in Rizhao is - 137, down 20; The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2617, down 2; The basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is - 45, down 7; The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 283, down 18; The futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 375, down 5 [18]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Views Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted soybean-palm oil price difference, incremental consumption is not forthcoming, and inventory is expected to increase. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil needs to be further reduced to stimulate consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: As the purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will increase accordingly. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in the supply of both palm oil and soybean oil, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recently, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the market's policy - expected trading. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal decline rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. High inventory exerts pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian soybean premiums are firm, the domestic market has strengthened following the international market, and the far - month crushing profit has slightly weakened. China's soybean imports in May were 13.918 million tons; from January to May, imports were 37.108 million tons, a 0.7% decline from the same period last year. Forecasts for June, July, and August are 11 million tons, 11.5 million tons, and 9.5 million tons respectively. Supply in the second and third quarters remains abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Under the expectation of China - US talks, the domestic soybean meal market has strengthened. Currently, the soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on soybean meal prices. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly execute previous contracts, and the enthusiasm for restocking is low, keeping the basis weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June, there is still pressure on the spot supply, downstream demand is lower than expected, and inventory reduction is difficult. Although there are some gaps in the far - month supply, the rigid demand is limited. The market performance is weak, and future attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. Key Data Summaries Fats and Oils - **Price Differences**: P 1 - 5 is 82 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Y - P 01 is - 382 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 46 yuan/ton, etc [4]. - **Palm Oil Prices**: Palm oil 01 is 7954 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56%; BMD palm oil main contract is 3868 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.1% [7]. - **Soybean Oil Prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 7644 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 47.77 cents/pound with an increase of 0.76% [12]. Oilseeds - **Futures Prices**: Bean meal 01 is 3064 with a decline of 4 and a decline rate of 0.13%; Rapeseed meal 01 is 2349 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.3% [16][18]. - **Price Differences**: M01 - 05 is 336 with a daily increase of 4; RM01 - 05 is - 15 with a daily decrease of 6 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rapeseed oil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market is sufficient, but the supply in the far - month is pessimistic due to factors such as low arrivals of Canadian rapeseed, low old - crop stocks of Russian rapeseed, difficulty in large - scale procurement of Australian rapeseed in the short term, inability to import Canadian rapeseed oil, and reserve rotation in the second half of the year. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is extremely scarce at present but is expected to improve significantly after May [3]. - The total demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Household consumption is relatively rigid, but catering consumption is poor. Rapeseed oil has a substitution phenomenon in blended oil due to its poor cost - performance. Future demand for rapeseed oil is difficult to increase significantly, with limited increments concentrated in seasonings and hot - pot bases [3]. - The market is generally optimistic about the basis of 09 rapeseed oil. The main logic is that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts far - month rapeseed procurement, and the amount of rapeseed oil that can be supplied to China before the harvest of Russian new crops is limited. The unilateral trend of the futures price depends on market sentiment and policies, and rapeseed oil is preferably used as a long position in oil arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - After China launched an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in September 2024 and imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in March 2025, the market's attention to rapeseed oil has increased. The uncertain result of the anti - dumping investigation restricts enterprises' willingness to purchase far - month rapeseed, and future rapeseed arrivals will decline significantly. To understand the downstream consumption, the views and procurement of oil mills and traders on far - month rapeseed oil, and the international supply of rapeseed oil, the research team visited the Sichuan - Chongqing region [11]. 3.2 Research Summary - **Supply**: The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is sufficient, but the far - month arrivals of Canadian rapeseed will decrease. Russian rapeseed stocks are low, and the monthly import volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China may drop to 50,000 - 60,000 tons in the next few months. Dubai's supply is stable with little increment, and Australian rapeseed is difficult to make up for the gap. In addition, the Sichuan - Chongqing region needs to rotate in rapeseed oil reserves in the second half of the year [16]. - **Demand**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Catering demand is poor due to the high cost - performance of soybean oil, while household demand is rigid. The demand is mainly stock - based, with limited increments in seasonings and hot - pot bases. The market expects rapeseed oil to start destocking in June. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce but is expected to improve after May [17]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market is optimistic about the basis of domestic 09 rapeseed oil due to supply concerns. The price trend of rapeseed oil depends on the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The market's acceptance of rapeseed oil prices is increasing, and demand is not completely suppressed by price. After September, the supply may improve, but import policies are still crucial. The price of soybean oil is expected to decline slightly after May. Strategies such as widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and soybean oil and palm oil can be considered [19]. 3.4 Research Content - **April 22, morning, Trader A in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 230,000 tons, and destocking is expected to start in June - July. The company mainly purchases from the East, South, and Hainan regions. It currently buys Dubai rapeseed oil at 6,000 tons per month. The far - month rapeseed purchase is restricted, and the company is optimistic about the price of rapeseed oil [20][21][23]. - **April 22, morning, Trader B in Chengdu**: The company's annual trade volume of oil and meal is about 300,000 tons. It is optimistic about the improvement of the soybean meal market after May Day. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 265,000 tons, and the company mainly purchases from Guangxi [26][27][30]. - **April 22, afternoon, Trader C in Chengdu**: The company's annual feed output is nearly 800,000 tons. The supply of rapeseed meal is poor, and the company has adjusted the formula. The company believes that rapeseed meal may have a correction opportunity. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is under pressure in March - May, and destocking is expected to start in June. The import of Russian rapeseed oil may be 40,000 - 60,000 tons per month from April to August [32][33][38]. - **April 23, morning, Trader D in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 700,000 tons per year and is decreasing. The company is optimistic about the 9 - month basis of rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region and believes that the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will face pressure after rising to 1,700 - 2,200 yuan [37][40][43]. - **April 23, afternoon, Oil Mill E in Chengdu**: The company mainly processes domestic rapeseed and corn germ. The output of domestic rapeseed has increased this year, but the quality is average. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 100,000 tons, and the demand is generally declining [44][45][46]. - **April 24, morning, Oil Mill F in Deyang**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 500,000 tons. The company believes that the supply of far - month rapeseed oil is scarce and is gradually purchasing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the 09 basis [47][48][50]. - **April 25, morning, Oil Mill G in Chongqing**: The company mainly refines and packages rapeseed oil. The annual trade volume is about 150,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 700,000 - 800,000 tons per year. The company's Chongqing rapeseed oil inventory is about several thousand tons, and destocking may start in June [51][53][54]. - **April 25, afternoon, Oil Mill H in Chongqing**: The company's planned annual trade volume of oil this year is 300,000 tons. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce, and the company is preparing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the future supply of soybean oil and the basis of rapeseed oil if the anti - dumping investigation continues [56][57][59].