Group 1 - The forum focused on how the futures market can assist the oilseed and oil industry in responding to trade changes [2][3] - The oilseed and oil industry is crucial for food security and economic stability in China, with challenges in stabilizing planting areas and managing price risks [3][4] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has developed oilseed futures over the past decade, becoming an essential risk management tool for industry players [3][4] Group 2 - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, leading to increased trade uncertainties and price volatility in the oilseed and oil market [3][4] - The domestic supply of edible vegetable oil remains robust despite a reduction in imports, with global supply continuing to increase [5] - The development of the biodiesel industry is significantly impacting global oilseed supply and demand, with nearly 20% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel [5][6] Group 3 - The ZCE is committed to enhancing market functions and service quality to help the oilseed industry navigate global trade challenges [4] - The domestic market for rapeseed and peanut oil is expected to face risks due to fluctuations in supply and demand, influenced by weather conditions and import levels [6][7] - The peanut industry in China is transitioning from a net exporter to a net importer, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [7][8] Group 4 - The future of the peanut market is projected to grow, driven by consumption, industry upgrades, and technological innovation [8] - The oilseed market is experiencing a divergence in oil and meal prices, with strong oil prices supported by biodiesel demand while meal prices remain under pressure [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Views Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted soybean-palm oil price difference, incremental consumption is not forthcoming, and inventory is expected to increase. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil needs to be further reduced to stimulate consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: As the purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will increase accordingly. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in the supply of both palm oil and soybean oil, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recently, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the market's policy - expected trading. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal decline rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. High inventory exerts pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian soybean premiums are firm, the domestic market has strengthened following the international market, and the far - month crushing profit has slightly weakened. China's soybean imports in May were 13.918 million tons; from January to May, imports were 37.108 million tons, a 0.7% decline from the same period last year. Forecasts for June, July, and August are 11 million tons, 11.5 million tons, and 9.5 million tons respectively. Supply in the second and third quarters remains abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Under the expectation of China - US talks, the domestic soybean meal market has strengthened. Currently, the soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on soybean meal prices. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly execute previous contracts, and the enthusiasm for restocking is low, keeping the basis weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June, there is still pressure on the spot supply, downstream demand is lower than expected, and inventory reduction is difficult. Although there are some gaps in the far - month supply, the rigid demand is limited. The market performance is weak, and future attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. Key Data Summaries Fats and Oils - **Price Differences**: P 1 - 5 is 82 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Y - P 01 is - 382 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 46 yuan/ton, etc [4]. - **Palm Oil Prices**: Palm oil 01 is 7954 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56%; BMD palm oil main contract is 3868 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.1% [7]. - **Soybean Oil Prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 7644 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 47.77 cents/pound with an increase of 0.76% [12]. Oilseeds - **Futures Prices**: Bean meal 01 is 3064 with a decline of 4 and a decline rate of 0.13%; Rapeseed meal 01 is 2349 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.3% [16][18]. - **Price Differences**: M01 - 05 is 336 with a daily increase of 4; RM01 - 05 is - 15 with a daily decrease of 6 [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang - Reviewer: Tang Yun Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent vessel purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, incremental consumption is not given, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased vessels arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill压榨 is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. Subsequently, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy expectation trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage peak, and subsequently, with the obvious limitation of new supply, the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. The consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides support for the far month [3]. Oilseeds - After the China-US talks, there may be opportunities for China to purchase soybeans for import in the fourth quarter. However, from the current crushing profit situation, the far-month crushing profit under the retained tariffs on US soybeans is still negative, and the progress of vessel purchases is expected to be slow. Moreover, this time, the trade agreement between the two sides was not involved, and it is expected to be mainly emotional trading in the short term. In terms of arrivals, there are currently 12.5 million tons in May and 10.5 million tons in June. Overall, the near-month supply is still relatively abundant [15]. - For domestic soybean meal, the current soybean inventory at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and as the operating rate gradually recovers, coupled with the state reserve auction, the supply in some areas has gradually recovered. The national soybean meal inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the spot price has been continuously lowered. From the demand side, oil mills are gradually starting up to realize profits, and downstream customers have basically completed their inventory preparations. Subsequently, it is expected that they will pick up goods at a rigid demand replenishment pace, and the physical inventory will continue to remain at a low level [15]. - On the rapeseed meal side, the rapeseed converted into rapeseed meal at the spot end plus the rapeseed meal inventory in East and South China is still relatively high. Although it has gradually entered the aquatic product inventory preparation month, the inventory depletion rate is still difficult. The registration of rapeseed meal delivery month warehouse receipts has reached a historical peak. On the one hand, the low price of soybean meal is constantly squeezing the demand for rapeseed meal, and it is more appropriate to register warehouse receipts for delivery under the background of a negative spot basis. On the other hand, due to the previous expansion of the number of rapeseed meal delivery factories by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the delivery month positions and delivery orders on the futures market have increased. Last Friday, an announcement on the customs import management measures for rapeseed meal was released, indicating that the better choice for subsequent imported rapeseed is to process it in the bonded area and then re-export it. It is also more appropriate to re-export imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. Coupled with the uncertainty of China-Canada relations in the future, the long-term expectations for the far month are still relatively strong [15]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils Price Differences between Months and Varieties - P 1-5: -262 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; P 5-9: 266 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; P 9-1: -4 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Y-P 01: -270 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan; Y-P 05: -420 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; Y-P 09: -270 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; Y/M 01: 2.6678, up 0.48%; Y/M 05: 2.9105, up 0.51%; Y/M 09: 2.7159, up 0.59%; OI 1-5: -136 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; OI 5-9: -41 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; OI 9-1: 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; OI/RM 01: 4.0056, up 0.27%; OI/RM 05: 3.8895, down 0.28%; OI/RM 09: 3.7617, down 0.2% [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8188 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; Palm oil 05: 8450 yuan/ton, up 1.51%; Palm oil 09: 8184 yuan/ton, up 2.89%; BMD palm oil main contract: 3951 ringgit/ton, up 1.49%; 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou: 8690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; 24-degree basis in Guangzhou: 506 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; POGO: 409.539 US dollars/ton, down 1.168 US dollars; International soybean oil-palm oil: 68.52 US dollars/ton, up 54.23 US dollars [7] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 7918 yuan/ton, up 1.06%; Soybean oil 05: 8030 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; Soybean oil 09: 7914 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 51.65 US cents/pound, up 3.65%; Shandong first-grade soybean oil spot: 8100 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Shandong first-grade soybean oil basis: 186 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; BOHO (weekly): 57.847 US dollars/barrel, down 9.8182 US dollars; Domestic first-grade soybean oil - 24-degree palm oil: -460 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [12] Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2968 yuan, up 31 yuan, up 1.06%; Soybean meal 05: 2759 yuan, up 13 yuan, up 0.47%; Soybean meal 09: 2914 yuan, up 28 yuan, up 0.97%; Rapeseed meal 01: 2312 yuan, up 17 yuan, up 0.74%; Rapeseed meal 05: 2416 yuan, up 6 yuan, up 0.25%; Rapeseed meal 09: 2509 yuan, up 22 yuan, up 0.88%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1075 yuan, unchanged, 0%; Offshore RMB: 7.2017, up 0.0045, up 0.06% [16][18] Price Differences between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - M01-05: 209 yuan, up 18 yuan; M05-09: -155 yuan, down 15 yuan; M09-01: -54 yuan, down 3 yuan; RM01-05: -104 yuan, up 11 yuan; RM05-09: -93 yuan, down 16 yuan; RM09-01: 197 yuan, up 5 yuan; Soybean meal spot in Rizhao: 3000 yuan, unchanged; Soybean meal basis in Rizhao: 86 yuan, down 28 yuan; Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian: 2453 yuan, down 11 yuan; Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian: -34 yuan, up 46 yuan; Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 547 yuan, unchanged; Futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 405 yuan, up 6 yuan [19]