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农业板块上扬,猪肉股表现亮眼,得利斯、傲农生物涨停
Group 1 - The agricultural sector saw a significant rise on the 15th, with notable performance from pork stocks, including companies like Delisi (002330) and Aonong Biological (603363) hitting the daily limit, while Lihua (300761) and Tiankang Biological (002100) rose over 8% [1] - The average weight of pigs sold last week was 128.32 kg per head, with a slowdown in the selling pace due to falling prices and cooler weather, which may lead to a temporary rebound in pig prices [1] - Since May, piglet prices have been declining as the corresponding selling time falls into the off-season next year, leading to decreased purchasing enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - Current pig prices have led to losses for companies with poor cost structures, prompting them to reduce production capacity, while supply pressure remains significant [2] - If the industry can orderly adjust capacity, a decrease in the number of breeding sows is expected, potentially raising the mid-term profitability of the industry [2] - After a period of adjustment, valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading companies still achieving good profitability and improving balance sheets [2] - The industry is expected to stabilize at a low point, with leading firms benefiting from cost advantages and increasing market share despite supply pressures [2] - The pig farming industry still has a promising mid-term profit margin, with many companies having expanded capacity poorly post-African swine fever, leading to significant cost variances [2]
成本下降驱动盈利改善,重点关注周期变化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 07:18
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with a focus on improving profitability driven by declining feed costs and increased production scale [1][11]. Core Insights - The overall agricultural sector has seen a revenue increase of 6.12% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 614.8 billion yuan, with a significant profit increase of 198% to 27 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery of the pig farming sector [1][11]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a seasonal price decline, yet remains profitable due to reduced feed costs and increased production efficiency [2][28]. - The poultry farming sector has shown mixed performance, with revenue slightly declining by 0.29% in H1 2025, but net profit improved by 6.43% due to lower costs [3][21]. - The seed sector reported a revenue increase of 5.05% in H1 2025, although net profit turned negative, indicating challenges in seed sales due to falling grain prices [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Feed prices have been on a downward trend, improving overall farming costs. Pig prices have remained stable year-on-year, while poultry prices have been low but profitable across the supply chain. The agricultural product supply-demand balance is easing, with major product prices at low levels [1][11]. - In H1 2025, the sector achieved revenues of 614.8 billion yuan and net profits of 27 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the pig farming sector [1][11]. Pig Farming - In 2024, pig supply is expected to decrease, with prices showing seasonal trends. Despite a decline in prices post-October, the sector remains profitable. In Q1 2025, the average price was 15.01 yuan/kg, up 3.90% year-on-year, while Q2 saw a price drop to 14.56 yuan/kg, down 10.94% year-on-year [2][28]. - The pig farming sector generated revenues of 248.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.67% increase, with net profits soaring by 1551% to 17.1 billion yuan [2][28]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector's revenue in H1 2025 was 33.7 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.29%, but net profit increased by 6.43% to 1 billion yuan due to lower costs [3][21]. - The white feather chicken segment remains stable despite low prices, while the yellow feather chicken segment is recovering from previous losses [3][21]. Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenues of 8.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.05% increase, but net profit turned negative, indicating challenges in the market [4][21].