养殖成本下降

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成本下降驱动盈利改善,重点关注周期变化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 07:18
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with a focus on improving profitability driven by declining feed costs and increased production scale [1][11]. Core Insights - The overall agricultural sector has seen a revenue increase of 6.12% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 614.8 billion yuan, with a significant profit increase of 198% to 27 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery of the pig farming sector [1][11]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a seasonal price decline, yet remains profitable due to reduced feed costs and increased production efficiency [2][28]. - The poultry farming sector has shown mixed performance, with revenue slightly declining by 0.29% in H1 2025, but net profit improved by 6.43% due to lower costs [3][21]. - The seed sector reported a revenue increase of 5.05% in H1 2025, although net profit turned negative, indicating challenges in seed sales due to falling grain prices [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Feed prices have been on a downward trend, improving overall farming costs. Pig prices have remained stable year-on-year, while poultry prices have been low but profitable across the supply chain. The agricultural product supply-demand balance is easing, with major product prices at low levels [1][11]. - In H1 2025, the sector achieved revenues of 614.8 billion yuan and net profits of 27 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the pig farming sector [1][11]. Pig Farming - In 2024, pig supply is expected to decrease, with prices showing seasonal trends. Despite a decline in prices post-October, the sector remains profitable. In Q1 2025, the average price was 15.01 yuan/kg, up 3.90% year-on-year, while Q2 saw a price drop to 14.56 yuan/kg, down 10.94% year-on-year [2][28]. - The pig farming sector generated revenues of 248.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.67% increase, with net profits soaring by 1551% to 17.1 billion yuan [2][28]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector's revenue in H1 2025 was 33.7 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.29%, but net profit increased by 6.43% to 1 billion yuan due to lower costs [3][21]. - The white feather chicken segment remains stable despite low prices, while the yellow feather chicken segment is recovering from previous losses [3][21]. Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenues of 8.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.05% increase, but net profit turned negative, indicating challenges in the market [4][21].
温氏股份(300498):养猪业务维持较好利润,黄鸡业务亏损
China Post Securities· 2025-08-29 10:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.875 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.475 billion yuan, up 161.77% year-on-year. However, the second quarter saw a decline in net profit by 42.53% year-on-year [4][5]. - The pig farming business continues to maintain good profitability, while the chicken business is facing significant losses due to low prices [5][6]. - The company sold 17.9319 million pigs in the first half of the year, a 24.75% increase year-on-year, with a per-head profit of 294 yuan [5]. - Chicken sales reached 598 million birds, a 9.16% increase year-on-year, but the average selling price dropped by 18.69%, leading to a loss of approximately 1.2 billion yuan in the chicken segment [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 104.924 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease to 102.407 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 110.485 billion yuan in 2026 and 133.812 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.230 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.437 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing to 11.063 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.633 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.39 yuan in 2024, dropping to 1.12 yuan in 2025, and then rising to 1.66 yuan in 2026 and 2.35 yuan in 2027 [8].
受房地产业务拖累,京基智农2025年上半年营收利润双下滑
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-23 03:11
Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.387 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11.61% [1][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 226 million yuan, down 3.97% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 0.43 yuan, a decrease of 4.62% [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.80 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 197 million yuan [1] Industry Performance - The breeding business, as the core pillar, achieved revenue of 1.925 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.13%, contributing 80.67% to total revenue [1][3] - The real estate development segment saw a significant decline in revenue, down 79.55% to 128 million yuan, compared to 628 million yuan in the same period last year [1][3] - The company’s real estate revenue contribution dropped from 23.26% to 5.38% [1][3] Product Breakdown - The company sold 1.0621 million pigs, generating sales revenue of 1.895 billion yuan from pig products [4] - Feed production revenue was approximately 280 million yuan, a decrease of 15.02% year-on-year, while net profit from feed operations increased by 10.88% to 6.2 million yuan [4] - The decline in feed sales was attributed to falling prices of raw materials and lower-than-expected sales in aquaculture feed due to losses in certain aquatic farming sectors [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency through improved breeding techniques and management practices, focusing on cost reduction and steady growth [5] - Plans include upgrading the "6750" production model and breeding system to increase capacity utilization and maintain profitability in self-breeding projects [5] - The company will continue to optimize cash flow and manage real estate inventory, particularly focusing on the sales of remaining units in the Shan Hai Gong Guan project [5]
华统股份股价平盘 养殖成本持续下降
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 14:41
Group 1 - The stock price of Huatong Co., Ltd. was reported at 10.57 yuan on August 8, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 56,517 hands, with a transaction amount of 0.6 billion yuan [1] - Huatong Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in livestock slaughtering and processing, as well as deep processing of meat products, with main products including fresh pork and fresh poultry [1] Group 2 - The company stated on its investor interaction platform that the breeding costs continued to decline in the second quarter [1] - On August 8, the net outflow of main funds was 6.1496 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 8.4930 million yuan over the past five days [1]
牧原股份(002714):Q1业绩开门红 高质量成长或延续
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:48
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational performance and cost management strategies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 36.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.41% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 4.491 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 288.79% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 39.31% [1]. - The company sold 22.66 million pigs in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2]. Group 2: Operational Highlights - The average profit per pig was 200 yuan, significantly higher than the industry average of approximately 93 yuan, attributed to a decrease in breeding costs to around 12.9 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The slaughtering volume reached 5.29 million pigs in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [2]. - The utilization rate of slaughtering capacity exceeded 70%, improving by over 30 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced sales channels and operational management [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a target of 72 to 78 million market pigs and 8 to 12 million piglets in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 10% to 19% for market pigs and 41% to 112% for piglets [3]. - The company plans to continue reducing costs through advancements in health management, breeding, nutrition research, and smart applications [3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in Vietnam and plans for an H-share listing are expected to enhance the company's international presence and long-term growth potential [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 19.7 billion, 18.3 billion, and 47.2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 39%, 36%, and 9% [4]. - The target price is set at 51.30 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.3x for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].
牧原股份:Q1业绩开门红,高质量成长或延续-20250425
HTSC· 2025-04-25 10:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 51.30 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q1 performance with a significant increase in both revenue and profit, driven by higher sales volume and improved cost management [1][2]. - The company aims for continued high-quality growth in 2025, with expected sales of 72 to 78 million market pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% to 19% [3]. - The report highlights the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency, with the complete cost of fattening pigs dropping to RMB 12.5 per kilogram in March 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1, the company sold 22.66 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2]. - The average profit per pig was RMB 200, significantly higher than the industry average of RMB 93, due to reduced costs [2]. Cost Management and Growth Projections - The company is expected to continue reducing costs through advancements in health management, breeding, and nutrition [3]. - The target for 2025 includes a total pig output of 72 to 78 million, with a notable increase in piglets [3]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 197 billion, RMB 183 billion, and RMB 472 billion respectively, with significant upward adjustments from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated price-to-book ratio for 2025 is set at 3.3x, reflecting the company's growth potential [4].
立华股份(300761):受益猪鸡养殖成本下降 公司Q1维持较好盈利
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 00:40
肉猪产能释放,生产稳定性提高,成本预计维持改善。参考销售月报,公司2025Q1 实现肉猪出栏48.37 万头,同比+162.60%,大幅增长主要得益于养殖产能扩张释放以及生产稳定性的提高。依靠自有猪场 建设以及外部优质猪场整合,公司截至2024 年末的生猪养殖产能已达200 万头,后续生猪出栏有望继续 保持较快增长。价格方面,公司2025Q1 肉猪销售均价为15.31 元/kg,同比+4.92%,环比有所回落。 2024 年以来公司不断强化生物安全软硬件升级和人员结构优化,生产稳定性目前得到显著明显提升, 叠加饲料原料成本下降,公司截至2024 年末的生猪完全成本已降至14 元/kg 以下,我们预计公司 2025Q1 肉猪单头盈利仍能保持200-300 元。考虑到当前行业母猪及仔猪补栏谨慎,2025Q1 末能繁母猪 存栏再度环比回落,2025-2026 年行业景气有望延续,公司依靠成本改善和产能储备,有望充分受益。 风险提示:养殖过程中发生不可控疫情,粮食价格大幅上涨,食品安全风险。 投资建议:考虑到国内黄羽肉鸡产能恢复导致年内供给增加,我们下调2025年归母净利润预测至10.5 亿 元(原为17.6 亿元) ...