行业景气度修复

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政策有望驱动行业中长期修复,并持续看好资源端景气超预期
Orient Securities· 2025-07-22 08:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that policy changes are expected to drive medium to long-term recovery in the industry, with a continued positive outlook on resource sector performance exceeding expectations [2][9] - The petrochemical sector is anticipated to stabilize growth, with the retirement of outdated facilities likely to enhance industry recovery [9][17] - The report emphasizes the sustained optimism regarding the agricultural resource chain, particularly in the phosphate and potassium sectors, which are expected to maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand situation despite concerns over new capacity releases [9][17] Summary by Sections Price and Price Spread Changes - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for liquid chlorine (up 21.8%), TDI 80/20 (up 18.8%), and natural gas (up 6.3%), while the largest declines were for D4 (down 9.6%), butane (down 6.7%), and acrylic acid (down 5.0%) [14][18] - The top three price spreads that increased were PTA (up 1103.7%), TDI spread (up 30.1%), and acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 25.6%), with the largest declines in styrene (down 36.5%), oil head propylene spread (down 36.1%), and polyethylene spread (down 20.8%) [19][18] Industry Recovery Expectations - There is a continuous expectation for industry bottom recovery, driven by policy changes and market dynamics [12] - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has been in a prolonged low phase, and recent policy adjustments are likely to enhance market expectations for recovery [9][17] Agricultural Resource Sector Outlook - The agricultural resource sector, particularly phosphate and potassium, is expected to remain in a relatively tight supply-demand balance, with traditional agricultural needs and emerging demands contributing to this stability [9][17]