石化化工行业十五五规划和反内卷 20260228 摘要 石化产业正经历重组调整，欧美日韩均在推进结构性改革，国内"反内 卷"初见成效。2025 年石化产品价格触及历史底部，部分产品价格与 2020 年相近，预示行业或将迎来新一轮周期。 "十四五"期间，石化行业经营业绩创新高，2021 年利润达 1.16 万亿， 2022 年营收达 16.56 万亿，进出口总额突破 1 万亿美元。预计"十四 五"期间营业收入、利润总额及进出口总额总量将大幅增加。 技术层面，现代煤化工技术领先，自主创新能力体系化；千万吨级炼油、 百万吨级乙烯及部分新材料达国际先进水平。产业布局优化，产业集中 度、产业链协同与产业集群培育基础更好。 中国沿海布局"七大石化基地"，煤化工布局"四大现代煤化工基地"。 长兴岛、曹妃甸、连云港、上海、宁波、古雷、大亚湾等沿海基地各有 侧重，鄂尔多斯、榆林、宁东和准东为煤化工核心。 "十四五"期间，石化行业能耗与碳排放强度下降，但总量增加。"双 碳"目标构成挑战，尤其煤化工路线碳排放水平高于天然气路线，转型 压力巨大。 高端化学品与高性能材料仍是国内供给短板，聚乙烯进口量连续多年超 1,300 万吨，反映 ...

结果显示，15个产品存在市场供大于需的风险。其中：环氧丙烷、环氧氯丙烷、丙烯腈、聚氯乙烯、氯 化石蜡、聚硅氧烷、丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯三元共聚物(ABS)、聚对苯二甲酸-己二酸丁二醇酯(PBAT)、 聚醚多元醇、1,4-丁二醇(BDO)、尼龙66、醋酸乙烯等12个产品风险等级为高风险，聚丙烯、纯碱、钛 白粉3个产品风险等级为较高风险。请有关企业予以重视。 石化化工行业是国民经济的重要基础产业、支柱产业，对稳定经济增长、保障能源和产业链供应链安全 具有重要作用。为加强预期引导和行业自律，中国石油和化学工业联合会组织有关专业协会、咨询机 构，对部分化学原料和化工新材料产品的当前产能、产量、表观消费量、进出口、拟在建产能，以及5 年后的产能、市场需求等进行分析研判。 中化新网讯 为加强预期引导和行业自律，中国石油和化学工业联合会日前发布《石化化工行业存在供 大于需风险的产品清单(2025年版)》，15个产品存在市场供大于需的风险。 ...

"十五五"开局之年，工业经济如何干出气势、跑出速度？ 2月26日召开的全省工业经济高质量发展推进会议给出了方向和路径：稳增长与提质效协同发力，持续 做强工业经济"头号工程"。 稳住是根基，提质是关键。做强"头号工程"，守的是基本盘、谋的是高质量、抓的是新突破，最终都要 落在稳增长、提质效这"两个发力"上。 大抓工业，是山东树立起的鲜明导向。 作为全国重要的工业基地，山东拥有41个工业大类、197个工业中类和603个工业小类，是工业门类最为 齐全的省份之一。近年来，山东通过深入实施工业经济"头号工程"，推动工业经济实现量质齐升。 看规模体量，2025年规上工业增加值增长7.6%、高于全国1.7个百分点；"十四五"期间年均增速7.5%、 高于全国1.6个百分点，对经济增长发挥了稳定器、动力源作用。 看发展质效，高新技术产业产值占比达到55.7%，5年提升10.6个百分点；数字经济占GDP比重突破 50%、5年提升9个百分点，国家级数字领航企业18家、居全国首位。 看产业生态，19条标志性产业链汇集九成以上规上工业企业，工业总产值过百亿元企业达到148家，274 家单项冠军企业产品市场占有率跻身全球前三，国家先进制 ...

看发展质效，高新技术产业产值占比达到55.7%，5年提升10.6个百分点；数字经济占GDP比重突破 50%、5年提升9个百分点，国家级数字领航企业18家、居全国首位。 "十五五"开局之年，工业经济如何干出气势、跑出速度？ 2月26日召开的全省工业经济高质量发展推进会议给出了方向和路径：稳增长与提质效协同发力， 持续做强工业经济"头号工程"。 稳住是根基，提质是关键。做强"头号工程"，守的是基本盘、谋的是高质量、抓的是新突破，最终 都要落在稳增长、提质效这"两个发力"上。 （一） 大抓工业，是山东树立起的鲜明导向。 作为全国重要的工业基地，山东拥有41个工业大类、197个工业中类和603个工业小类，是工业门类 最为齐全的省份之一。近年来，山东通过深入实施工业经济"头号工程"，推动工业经济实现量质齐升。 看规模体量，2025年规上工业增加值增长7.6%、高于全国1.7个百分点；"十四五"期间年均增速 7.5%、高于全国1.6个百分点，对经济增长发挥了稳定器、动力源作用。 唯有守住稳增长底线，才能为提质效创造条件，实现工业经济行稳致远。 （三） 看产业生态，19条标志性产业链汇集九成以上规上工业企业，工业总产值过百 ...

自2024年工信部等6部委实施智能工厂梯度培育行动以来，我国已培育15家领航级智能工厂，建成500余家卓越级智能工厂、 8000余家先进级智能工厂、3.5万余家基础级智能工厂，智能工厂建设已初具规模。 中国信通院近日发布的《智能工厂发展报告（2025年）》（下称"报告"）梳理了智能工厂发展现状、展望了未来发展趋势。"未 来五年，智能工厂有望从单厂建设走向'平台+集群'协同，成为科技创新和产业创新融合的枢纽。" 智能工厂行业分布路径 智能工厂也成为近消费端行业应对市场变化的重要支撑。 在全球经济增长放缓，我国制造业中长期规模增长压力增大、动能减弱的大背景下，智能工厂正经历系统性变革。 江苏卓越级智能工厂最多 从区域分布看，报告显示，基础级、先进级、卓越级智能工厂已实现31个省份全覆盖；卓越级智能工厂数量靠前的省份有江苏 （67家）、山东（49家）、浙江（38家）、上海（28家）、湖北（24家）、广东（22家）、重庆（22家）、福建（21家）、四 川（20家）、北京（19家）、安徽（19家）。 在领航级智能工厂培育对象方面，江苏、山东、浙江、上海、湖北各有2家，广东、四川、湖南、广西、海南各有1家，共计15 家。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The polyester fiber industry chain is experiencing a rapid increase in price differentials between upstream and downstream [1] - Upstream costs are providing stronger support, boosting market sentiment and driving prices of PX, MEG, and PTA higher [1] - In the polyester filament sector, the number of maintenance shutdowns is increasing, leading to a decline in market supply; however, as the year-end approaches, terminal demand is weakening and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines is declining faster [1] - There is potential for price increases in the "golden March and silver April" period as the polyester filament industry is expected to resume operations and replenish inventory after the New Year [1] Industry Trends - The petrochemical industry is a core segment of China's resource-manufacturing re-inflation and is gradually entering a window for layout in the right phase of the industrial fundamentals [1] - Long-cycle fixed asset investment is turning negative, and the capacity cycle is expected to peak, potentially releasing profit space [1] - Policy measures are exceeding expectations; during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the implementation of dual control of carbon emissions is gradually revealing capacity ceilings for high-energy-consuming enterprises, benefiting the chemical supply side [1] - The upward trend in overseas demand, coupled with capacity exit, is expected to shift exports from quantity-driven to both quantity and price increases, leading to a revaluation of China's industrial strength [1] - The demand side is benefiting from the transformation of old and new driving forces, with new chemical materials expected to inject elasticity into industrial demand improvement [1] Related Products - The chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570, linked funds: 020104/020105) directly benefits from dual carbon policies and price increases in core segments such as PX-PTA-filament industry, with a latest scale of 1.7 billion [2] Packaging Leaders - A one-click package for leading companies in the petrochemical and basic chemical industries is available [3] Fee Advantages - The combined management and custody fee is only 0.20% per year, significantly lower than similar products, resulting in lower investment costs [4] Elasticity Advantages - The index composition focuses on sub-industries with clear supply-demand improvements, making it sensitive to price increase expectations [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of 1,570 key projects in Fujian Province for 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan [1] - Among the key projects, there are 59 petrochemical projects, with 37 under construction, 20 newly started, and 2 in preparation [1] - The Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance the quality and efficiency of project construction, ensuring the province's economic leadership [1] Group 2 - The Fujian Gulei 1.5 million tons/year ethylene and downstream processing project is currently under construction [2] - Other notable projects under construction include the Zhangzhou Gulei carbon five and carbon nine separation project and the Fuzhou Wanjing Petrochemical propane dehydrogenation project [2] - New projects include the Fuzhou Zhongjing New Materials 800,000 tons/year synthetic ammonia project and the Lianjiang polyamide industry chain project [2] Group 3 - The article lists various projects in different stages, including those in preparation, under construction, and newly started, across multiple cities in Fujian [3][4] - Key projects in the pipeline include the Quanzhou Huian Sinopec crude oil heavy oil project and the Zhangzhou Xinyuan annual production of 30,000 tons of lithium battery new materials project [3] - The focus on upgrading and optimizing existing facilities is evident in projects like the Shaowu City Shaohua Chemical production facility upgrade and relocation project [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the petrochemical industry is entering a critical recovery phase, supported by various market dynamics [1] - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index rose by 2.5%, while the China Rare Earth Industry Index increased by 1.8% [1] - The ETF for the chemical industry, E Fund (516570), has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for 15 trading days, totaling over 1.4 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The supply structure of the petrochemical industry is expected to improve due to the peak of the capacity cycle and the advancement of dual control policies on carbon emissions [1] - Measures to counteract "involution" within the industry are becoming more comprehensive, which is likely to enhance the recovery slope [1] - The exit of overseas capacity combined with a rebound in demand is driving exports towards a simultaneous increase in volume and price [1] - The new chemical materials sector is benefiting from the transition between old and new growth drivers, which will continue to inject resilience into industry growth [1]

3、"控增量、减存量、管过程"，石化化工"反内卷" "稳增长"措施趋于立体化，提升产业复苏斜率， 4、海外需求向上伴随产能退出，出口有望从以价换量转到量价齐升，中国工业力迎来估值重塑， 5、需求端受益于新旧动能转换，化工新材料有望为产业需求改善注入弹性。 相关产品：化工行业ETF易方达（516570，联接基金A/C类：020104/020105）聚焦产业龙头，直接受益 于供给侧优化与产品涨价预期： 截至10:30，申万基础化工、石油石化行业上涨2.7%，1.8%，领涨市场。 价格表现：2025年12月开始中国化工品价格筑底回升，价格水平出现趋势性反转。截至1月底，中国化 工品价格指数涨至4115，月环比上涨4.7%，较本轮周期底部价格水平抬升7.6%。12月化学原料及化学 制品制造业PPI同比为-4.8%，较上月收窄0.4pct，化学纤维制造业PPI同比为-6.9%，较上月收窄0.9pcf。 产业趋势：石化化工行业是我国资源—制造业再通胀的核心环节，正逐步迎来产业基本面右侧起步阶段 的布局窗口期： 1、长周期固定资产投资转负，产能周期筑顶有望释放盈利空间， 2、政策力度超预期，"十五五"期间在全面实施碳排放双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, emphasizing that this initiative is not merely about emission reduction but a comprehensive industrial upgrade centered on carbon efficiency, which will drive high-quality development in China's real economy [1] Group 1: Zero-Carbon Factory Construction Blueprint - The guidelines outline a measurable, reportable, and verifiable carbon management system as the core of zero-carbon factory construction [2] - A phased approach is established, starting with selection in 2026, construction in 2027, and gradual expansion by 2030, considering industry characteristics and carbon emission features [2] - The initiative aims to create leaders in sectors like automotive and lithium batteries while exploring transformation paths for traditional high-energy industries like petrochemicals [2] Group 2: Systematic Emission Reduction Measures - Zero-carbon factories focus on technological innovation, structural adjustments, and management optimization to continuously reduce CO2 emissions [3] - The guidelines propose using product carbon footprints to drive collaborative carbon reduction across the supply chain, emphasizing green solutions in procurement and logistics [3] - Digitalization is highlighted as key for precise carbon management, utilizing industrial internet and big data for real-time monitoring and optimization [3] Group 3: Standardization and Evaluation System - A rigorous, unified standard system is essential for the scale and normalization of zero-carbon factory development, aligning with international standards [4] - The transition from declaration-oriented to performance-oriented international rules emphasizes priority on emission reduction and verification requirements [4] - China's standardization efforts are evolving from pilot group standards to national standards, with over 30 group standards already published [5][6] Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem for Zero-Carbon Factories - The construction of zero-carbon factories requires collaboration across technology innovation, financial support, professional services, and talent development [7] - Green finance is crucial, with policies in place to provide favorable loans and financial products for zero-carbon factories, reflecting a significant growth in green loans and bonds [7] - The guidelines stress the principle of "reduce as much as possible, continuously improve," prioritizing internal emission reductions before considering carbon offsets [7]