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国泰海通|海外策略:一页纸精读行业比较数据:11月
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-11-27 14:14
Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]
国泰海通|海外策略:一页纸精读行业比较数据:9月
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-25 12:07
Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver have risen since September 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 0.50%, with real estate development investment declining by 12.90% and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at 5.10% [1] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 5.42%. Prices of tin and nickel have fallen, while the price of thermal coal has slightly increased to 676 RMB per ton [1] Consumption Chain - In August 2025, automobile sales growth rate increased to 16.44%, while home appliance retail sales growth rate decreased to 19.90%. The nominal growth rate of social consumption fell to 3.40% [2] - The cumulative nominal growth rate has decreased by 4.60%, and the sales area of commercial housing has seen a decline of 5.44% [2] Export Chain - In August 2025, export growth rate to the US decreased, while it increased for the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. The overall export growth rate rose to 25.52% [3] - Exports of furniture, refined oil, coke, ships, plastics, and auto parts have seen an increase, while agricultural products, toys, lighting, coal, steel, and aluminum exports have decreased [3] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen to 63.41 USD per barrel as of September 23, 2025. Prices for PVC have increased to 4695 RMB per ton, while prices for MDI have decreased [4] - Pork prices have dropped to 13.71 RMB per kilogram, and the price of domestic urea has also decreased compared to July 2025 [4]