报告导读： ① 投资链： 6 月以来铜、铝、铅、锡、白银价格上升。②消费链：社消额累 计同比增速抬升，汽车销量当月同比增速上升。③出口链：对美国、日本、东盟出口金额 当月同比增速下降，对欧盟出口金额当月同比增速上升。④价格链： 6 月油价上升、猪价 有所下降 。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 价格链： 6 月油价上升、猪价有所下降。 WTI ： 2025 年 6 月 24 日上升至 64.37 美元 / 桶。 2025 年 6 月秦皇岛煤价下降。 PVC ： 2025 年 6 月 20 日现货价格下降为 4680 元 / 吨。 MDI ：： 2025 年 6 月 20 日纯 MDI 价格下降至 17100 元 / 吨，聚合 MDI 价格下降至 16200 元 / 吨。 22025 年 6 月棉花价格上升，白砂糖价格下降；猪肉价格 2025 年 6 月 11 日下降至 14.45 元 / 公斤；国产尿素 2025 年 5 月价格较 2025 年 4 月下降。 2025 年 5 月新增信贷增加至 6200 亿元； 2025 年 4 月寿 险保费收入累计 ...

Investment Chain - Since June, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have increased. In May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to 3.70%, while the decline in real estate development investment narrowed to -10.70%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing fixed asset investment fell to 8.50%, and infrastructure investment decreased to 10.42% [4][8] - In June 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have risen, while prices of gold, zinc, and nickel have decreased. The price of thermal coal slightly decreased to 663 RMB/ton, and the price of coking coal also slightly declined. The average price of ordinary cement saw a minor decrease, while steel prices have risen [4][8] Consumption Chain - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social consumption has increased, with automobile sales showing a year-on-year growth rate of 11.15% in May 2025. The nominal year-on-year growth rate for May 2025 rebounded to 6.40%, and the cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate rose to 5.00% [4][9] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area saw a larger decline, dropping to -3.62%. The retail sales of home appliances in May 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56.98% [4][9] Export Chain - In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of export amounts to the United States, Japan, and ASEAN decreased, while the growth rate of exports to the European Union increased. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports for toys, lamps, coke, coal, steel, ships, plastics, and auto parts rose, while the growth rates for agricultural products, furniture, refined oil, crude oil, and aluminum decreased [4][10] - The OECD leading indicator for the United States fell to 100.26 in May 2025. The electronic export amount's year-on-year growth rate increased to 21.17%, while the textile and clothing export amount's growth rate decreased to 1.98% [4][10] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen, with WTI reaching 64.37 USD/barrel on June 24, 2025. The price of PVC dropped to 4680 RMB/ton, and the prices of pure MDI and polymer MDI decreased to 17100 RMB/ton and 16200 RMB/ton, respectively [4][11] - The price of pork decreased to 14.45 RMB/kg on June 11, 2025, while cotton prices increased and sugar prices decreased. The increase in new credit in May 2025 reached 620 billion RMB, and the year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income rose to 1.15% [4][11]