ETF资金流向视角下的行业轮动配置 证券研究报告|金融工程专题 2026年3月4日 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号：S0210524100005 何佳玮 执业证书编号：S0210524100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 股票ETF持仓特征及价格传导的逻辑梳理：2018年至2023年受到ETF持有人散户化特征加强的影响，当A股市场上涨时 ETF出现赎回，当市场整体呈现小市值、低估值、高分红、低波动的特征时期，股票ETF份额增长更快；当市场整体呈现 高动量、高波动、高质量、大市值的特征时期，股票ETF份额增长减缓。 ➢ 持仓程度及边际变动分组收益受A股市场风格强弱影响：由于持仓行业的权重受基准指数的成分股权重影响，而大多数指 数成分股的权重由自由流通市值加权而得，所以截面持仓程度高的行业市值较高，因此大市值占优的阶段中，高配行业收 益更高；2021年下半年至2024年初在A股市场价格下降的背景下，持仓边际下降的行业组合收益贡献持续的超额收益，原 因是股票ETF持仓的股票池在A股市场中估值水平偏高，估值难以进一步提升。 ➢ 持仓跟主动权益的分歧度分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an innovation-driven bull market, with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth in "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1]. - The approach emphasizes a "prolonged battle" in bull markets and a "guerrilla warfare" strategy in balanced and bear markets, aligning fundamentals with survival [5][6]. - The flexibility in portfolio management is highlighted, with stock positions being adjusted based on market conditions, such as reducing equity exposure from 91% to 67% over two quarters in 2023 [6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The fund managed by the company achieved a net value growth rate of 19.18% in the first half of 2025 and 18.70% over the past year, ranking in the top 5% of its peers over the last two years [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The focus is on identifying 3 to 5 high-prosperity industries each year, with a keen eye on economic cycles, industry policy shifts, and supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Recent adjustments included reducing exposure to the underperforming power equipment sector while increasing allocations to the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. Group 4: Stock Selection Criteria - The investment philosophy prioritizes growth stocks with high return on equity (ROE) and sustainable growth potential, aiming to capture both industry and individual stock gains [4]. - Key attributes for stock selection include sensitivity, solidity, rigor, and patience, with a meticulous examination of financial statements to identify potential high-return investments [4]. Group 5: Market Trends - The company identifies three current investment themes with significant potential: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces in the evolving market landscape [6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as undergoing transformative changes, approaching the levels of developed countries, indicating strong fundamentals [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an innovation-driven bull market, with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth in "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1][4]. - The approach emphasizes a dynamic balance in asset allocation, avoiding extreme positions typical of either growth or value investing [4][5]. - The investment framework is characterized by a focus on economic cycles and industry trends, selecting 3 to 5 high-prospect industries for targeted investment each year [4][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The net value growth rate of the fund managed by the company reached 19.18% in the past six months and 18.70% over the past year [3]. - The fund's performance ranked in the top 5% of its peers over the past two years, indicating strong relative performance [3]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - The company adjusts its stock positions flexibly, reducing equity exposure from 91% in Q2 2023 to 67% by the end of Q4 2023, effectively managing drawdowns during uncertain market conditions [6]. - In 2024, the company increased stock positions again, successfully capturing market opportunities [6]. Group 4: Key Investment Themes - The company identifies three key investment themes with contemporary relevance: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces of the current market [5][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as undergoing significant transformation, approaching the standards of developed countries [6].