Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model Based on ETF Fund Flows - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages ETF fund flow data to identify industry rotation opportunities. It incorporates short-term fund inflows/outflows, style-adjusted holding levels, marginal changes in holdings, and the divergence between ETF and active equity fund holdings to construct an industry allocation strategy[3][69][72] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Short-term Fund Flows**: Calculate the first-order difference of weekly ETF holdings to identify industries with significant inflows or outflows[40][44] 2. **Style-Adjusted Holdings**: Adjust industry holdings based on market style (e.g., large-cap vs. small-cap, growth vs. value) using a single-sided HP filter and factor momentum to determine style trends[49][50][57] 3. **Marginal Changes in Holdings**: Analyze the marginal changes in ETF holdings by ranking industries into five groups based on their monthly holding changes[22][25] 4. **Divergence with Active Equity Funds**: Compare ETF holdings with active equity fund holdings to identify industries with higher or lower relative allocations. Use regression-based methods to estimate active fund holdings when real data is unavailable[27][28][31] 5. **Final Strategy**: Combine the above factors equally, select the top six industries, and rebalance the portfolio bi-weekly[72] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures industry rotation opportunities by integrating multiple dimensions of ETF fund flow data and market style trends[72] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Allocation Model Based on ETF Fund Flows - **Annualized Return**: 15.57% - **Excess Annualized Return**: 7.56% (compared to equal-weighted industry benchmark) - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 0.93 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 8.30% - **Monthly Excess Win Rate**: 64% - **Payoff Ratio**: 1.38x[72] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Short-term Fund Flows - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identify industries with significant short-term fund inflows or outflows to capture immediate price impacts[40][44] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the first-order difference of weekly ETF holdings 2. Rank industries based on the magnitude of fund flow changes[40][44] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong monotonicity in short-term returns, with industries experiencing inflows showing higher returns[44] 2. Factor Name: Style-Adjusted Holdings - **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjust industry holdings based on prevailing market styles (e.g., large-cap vs. small-cap, growth vs. value)[46][49] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use a single-sided HP filter to smooth market style data (e.g., CSI 300/CSI 1000 index ratios) 2. Define factor momentum as the difference between the current value and the average of the previous two periods 3. Classify industries into five groups based on their adjusted holdings[49][50][57] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the relationship between industry holdings and market style trends, effectively identifying style-driven opportunities[47][57] 3. Factor Name: Marginal Changes in Holdings - **Factor Construction Idea**: Analyze the marginal changes in ETF holdings to identify industries with increasing or decreasing allocations[22][25] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the monthly difference in ETF holdings for each industry 2. Rank industries into five groups based on the magnitude of changes[22][25] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates a strong correlation with growth and value style trends, providing insights into industry rotation opportunities[47] 4. Factor Name: Divergence with Active Equity Fund Holdings - **Factor Construction Idea**: Compare ETF holdings with active equity fund holdings to identify industries with higher or lower relative allocations[27][28] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use regression-based methods to estimate active fund holdings when real data is unavailable 2. Calculate the difference between ETF and active fund holdings and rank industries into three groups based on the magnitude of divergence[27][28][31] - **Factor Evaluation**: Highlights the pricing power of ETF flows relative to active funds, especially post-2021[31][65] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Short-term Fund Flows - **Absolute Return**: 6.17% (highest group) - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.22% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.29 - **Maximum Drawdown**: -37.61%[42] 2. Style-Adjusted Holdings - **Annualized Return**: 9.66% - **Excess Annualized Return**: 5.82% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 0.75 - **Maximum Drawdown**: -29.11%[55] 3. Marginal Changes in Holdings - **Annualized Return**: 7.80% (highest group) - **Excess Annualized Return**: 6.91% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.13 - **Maximum Drawdown**: -16.10%[71] 4. Divergence with Active Equity Fund Holdings - **Annualized Return**: 14.01% - **Excess Annualized Return**: 6.11% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 0.76 - **Maximum Drawdown**: -28.80%[64][65]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an innovation-driven bull market, with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth in "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1]. - The approach emphasizes a "prolonged battle" in bull markets and a "guerrilla warfare" strategy in balanced and bear markets, aligning fundamentals with survival [5][6]. - The flexibility in portfolio management is highlighted, with stock positions being adjusted based on market conditions, such as reducing equity exposure from 91% to 67% over two quarters in 2023 [6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The fund managed by the company achieved a net value growth rate of 19.18% in the first half of 2025 and 18.70% over the past year, ranking in the top 5% of its peers over the last two years [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The focus is on identifying 3 to 5 high-prosperity industries each year, with a keen eye on economic cycles, industry policy shifts, and supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Recent adjustments included reducing exposure to the underperforming power equipment sector while increasing allocations to the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. Group 4: Stock Selection Criteria - The investment philosophy prioritizes growth stocks with high return on equity (ROE) and sustainable growth potential, aiming to capture both industry and individual stock gains [4]. - Key attributes for stock selection include sensitivity, solidity, rigor, and patience, with a meticulous examination of financial statements to identify potential high-return investments [4]. Group 5: Market Trends - The company identifies three current investment themes with significant potential: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces in the evolving market landscape [6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as undergoing transformative changes, approaching the levels of developed countries, indicating strong fundamentals [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an innovation-driven bull market, with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth in "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1][4]. - The approach emphasizes a dynamic balance in asset allocation, avoiding extreme positions typical of either growth or value investing [4][5]. - The investment framework is characterized by a focus on economic cycles and industry trends, selecting 3 to 5 high-prospect industries for targeted investment each year [4][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The net value growth rate of the fund managed by the company reached 19.18% in the past six months and 18.70% over the past year [3]. - The fund's performance ranked in the top 5% of its peers over the past two years, indicating strong relative performance [3]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - The company adjusts its stock positions flexibly, reducing equity exposure from 91% in Q2 2023 to 67% by the end of Q4 2023, effectively managing drawdowns during uncertain market conditions [6]. - In 2024, the company increased stock positions again, successfully capturing market opportunities [6]. Group 4: Key Investment Themes - The company identifies three key investment themes with contemporary relevance: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces of the current market [5][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as undergoing significant transformation, approaching the standards of developed countries [6].