Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations and an upward trend by September 2025, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and various market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the closure of some refining facilities, contributing to a rise in oil prices to a high point within the month [1]. - Market expectations of OPEC+ increasing production and weak U.S. non-farm data have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a subsequent decline observed [1]. - Continued attacks by Ukraine on Russia may result in reduced oil production from Russian producers, while the EU might impose new sanctions on Russia [1]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year, indicating a potential increase in market supply [1]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates may also influence oil price movements, contributing to a rebound in prices mid-month [1]. Group 3: Oil and Gas Industry Index - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services [1]. - The oil and gas industry index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the energy sector, characterized by strong resource endowments and synergistic industry chains [1].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price has experienced a significant decline since April, primarily driven by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to increase production, raising concerns about a potential global economic recession [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Decline - The WTI oil price dropped from $71.71 per barrel on April 2 to $59.58 per barrel on April 8, while Brent oil fell from $74.95 to $62.82 in the same period [3][4]. - As of April 25, WTI was priced at $63.02 per barrel and Brent at $66.87 per barrel [3]. - The "reciprocal tariff" policy has heightened fears of a shrinking global trade and economic downturn, impacting oil demand [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Side Changes - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 410,000 barrels per day for May, significantly higher than the previously planned 138,000 barrels per day, disrupting the traditional "production cut" strategy [4]. - This decision reflects a rebalancing of interests within OPEC+, as major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia aim to regain market share lost due to previous production cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast down to 1.3 million barrels per day, a reduction of 150,000 barrels from the previous month, and lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0% [5]. - The potential resolution of the Ukraine crisis could lead to increased Russian oil production and exports, further altering the global oil supply landscape [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in oil prices has been exacerbated by speculative trading, with put option prices surging tenfold since April 3, indicating rising market panic [5][6]. - Experts believe that the current oil price drop is influenced more by policy changes rather than supply-demand imbalances seen in previous downturns [6]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain volatile, with Brent and WTI price forecasts adjusted to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively [7]. - The outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and U.S.-Iran negotiations will be critical in determining future oil price movements [8]. Group 6: Impact on Energy Strategy - The decline in oil prices could improve China's international balance of payments, as it is the world's largest oil importer, but may also compress profit margins for domestic oil companies [9][10]. - Experts emphasize the need for China to enhance its energy security and consider strategic reserves while promoting green energy transitions [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term volatility, medium - term volatility and weakness, and intraday volatility and strength. It is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2506 contract shows a volatile trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2506 contract shows a volatile and weak trend [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2506 contract shows a volatile and strong trend [1]. 3.2 Price and Market Conditions - On the night of last Friday, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures first rose and then fell. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract slightly closed down 0.26% to 492.6 yuan/barrel [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - Kazakhstan, which promised compensatory production cuts, stated that its oil production is determined by national interests and it is not an OPEC+ oil - producing country. This makes the market further confirm that compensatory production cuts by over - producing OPEC+ countries are difficult to implement. There are also long - short differences in the short - term crude oil market [5].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant increase in demand for vegetable oils, driven by the potential rise in biodiesel blending requirements by the EPA, which could lead to an additional demand of 5.2 to 8 million tons of vegetable oil [2][6][8] - The political motivations behind Trump's shift towards supporting biofuels are discussed, emphasizing the need to maintain support from agricultural states while aligning with the interests of oil companies investing in renewable energy [6][8] - The article notes that the increase in biodiesel blending requirements may be gradual, with potential challenges in achieving the projected demand due to limited land availability for soybean and canola production in the U.S. [7][8] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's tariff policies on commodity pricing, particularly how tariffs could increase import costs and affect the North American supply chain [10] - It mentions the recent actions by the U.S. Treasury to raise capital for major banks, signaling a focus on financial stability and support for the real economy, which could positively impact the capital market [12] - The article also addresses the current state of the pork market, indicating a potential decline in prices due to increased supply pressures from a large number of piglets expected to be sold in 2024 [14]