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沥青:高位震荡,警惕原油再度上扬
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:39
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that asphalt prices are in a high - level oscillation, and investors should be vigilant about a potential rise in crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,683 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 3,669 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,025 lots with a decrease of 546 lots, and the open interest was 1,533 lots with a decrease of 362 lots. For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,659 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the overnight closing price was 3,654 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.14%. The trading volume was 145,613 lots with a decrease of 45,926 lots, and the open interest was 125,992 lots with a decrease of 5,504 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 81,140 lots with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 08) was 102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan compared to the previous day; the 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 185, a decrease of 20; the East China - South China spread was 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,915 yuan/ton, while the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 4,058 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,841 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,905 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 34.91%, a decrease of 1.00% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 25.87%, a decrease of 0.35% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The reason was that although some refineries reduced production, some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical maintained stable production [13]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or 5.9% compared to the previous week. The reason was that some refineries in Xinjiang and Shandong resumed asphalt production [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In the Northeast region, refinery production decreased and high - price transactions slowed down, while in the East China region, shipments increased significantly after supply recovery [13]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8].
沥青:原油强势,小步跟涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that asphalt prices are rising slowly following the strong performance of crude oil. It also analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and recent industry news of asphalt [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2508 and BU2509 increased, with daily increases of 0.77% and 0.86% respectively. The trading volume of BU2508 increased by 1,089 lots, while that of BU2509 decreased by 17,315 lots. The positions of both decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta increased and remained unchanged respectively. The refinery operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 31.95%, and the refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.79% to 25.10% [1]. - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 08) decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the 08 - 09 inter - period spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread increased by 10, and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook, with the intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market News - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a 4.3% increase from the previous period, mainly due to stable production in some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical [15]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Xinjiang Meihuit and some Shandong refineries [15]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Shipments in the Northeast weakened, while those in the East China increased significantly [15].
沥青:原油大幅反弹,出货继续放缓
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of asphalt is 1, indicating a neutral stance on the market [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: For BU2507, the yesterday's closing price was 3,488 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,499 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 40,556 lots, a decrease of 24,713 lots, and the open interest was 60,928 lots, a decrease of 5,025 lots. For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,481 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,492 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 12,192 lots, a decrease of 12,074 lots, and the open interest was 27,815 lots, a decrease of 1,908 lots [1] - Spot Market: The yesterday's price of Shandong wholesale was 3,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,775 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,907 yuan/ton. The yesterday's price of the Yangtze River Delta wholesale was 3,670 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,656 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,707 yuan/ton [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 237 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 7 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shandong - South China spread was 315, an increase of 30; the East China - South China spread was 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory and Production: As of June 9, the refinery operating rate was 34.49%, an increase of 0.95% compared with June 5, and the refinery inventory rate was 30.29%, a decrease of 0.54% compared with June 5 [1] Market Information - Capacity Utilization: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The reason was that although some Shandong refineries switched to produce residual oil, some main refineries in East China increased production [11] - Maintenance Volume: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 70.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons or 4.1% compared with the previous week. The reason was that although Jiangsu Xinhai switched to produce residual oil, Sinochem Quanzhou had intermittent resumption of production, leading to a decrease in the loss volume [11] - Shipment Volume: From June 4 - 10, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. Regionally, the changes in North China and East China were more obvious. In North China, the contract volume at the beginning of the month was relatively small, resulting in a significant decrease in shipment volume, while in East China, the main refineries had intermittent production increases and good ship shipments, driving an increase in regional shipment volume [11]