Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal disagreement regarding the potential for further interest rate cuts in December, influenced by the recent government shutdown and the resulting lack of key economic data [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing moderate expansion, with a gradual cooling of the labor market, but no sharp deterioration has been observed [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was reported at 2.7%, indicating a slight increase from previous months, which may affect inflation expectations [3] - The trade war's impact on U.S. prices is becoming more evident, with tariffs potentially influencing inflation sustainability [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are divided on whether to cut rates further, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty surrounding economic data [2][3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December has decreased to 44%, down from nearly 100% following the September decision, as market liquidity has improved post-government reopening [2] - The Fed's focus remains on balancing interest rates based on evolving data and risks, with a neutral rate being considered as a prudent strategy [2][4] Group 3: Trade and Economic Growth - Despite ongoing trade tensions, China remains a significant trading partner for the U.S., being the second-largest source of imports and third-largest destination for exports [4] - The Fed's dual mandate includes promoting economic growth, which may be impacted by trade policies and tariffs, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of monetary policy in light of trade war effects [4]

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 据新华社报道，当地时间11月19日，美国联邦储备委员会公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于经济温和扩张、劳动力市场逐步降温但 未现急剧恶化，美联储官员对12月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧。这一决议符合市场预期，主要原因在于，长达43天的美国联邦政府停 摆，使得就业和通胀等关键数据缺失，而这些都是美联储决策所依赖的关键变量。 受数据迷雾的影响，美联储货币政策的能见度大大下降。在这一情况下，美联储官员们的发声，成为了市场观察美联储接下来货币政策走 向的重要窗口。 11月17日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，在英国伦敦专业经济学家协会年度晚宴上，发表了《持续降息的理由》的主题演讲，认为政府 停摆导致数据缺失的挑战在许多方面被夸大了。政策制定者和预测者并非"盲目飞行"或在"迷雾中"，尽管政府关门，但美联储仍然拥有大 量私营和部分公共部门数据，提供了一幅不完美但完全可作参考的美国经济图景。而且根据这些数据，进一步降息的条件仍然具备。 但在美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊看来，当前利率的走向，需要继续根据最新的数据、不断变化的前景和潜在的风险进行平衡。在11月17 日于密苏里州 ...