软实力理论框架：规则先于物质，隐性权力主导定价。邓正红软实力思想的核心逻辑为："能源竞争的本质，是规则定义权的争夺，而非油井储量的比 拼。"隐性规则（规则场）包括金融结算体系、航运通道控制权、制裁法律框架、市场预期管理、舆论叙事主导权。显性物质（物质场）：包括油田产量、 库存水平、运输能力等物理指标。当"规则场"对"物质场"形成压制或重构时，即使供应未实质性短缺，市场仍会为"政治黑箱溢价"买单。1月20日油价上 涨，正是"规则场"在"物质场"受损背景下，成功激活风险溢价的体现。 邓正红软实力表示，市场权衡黑海地区供应受阻的影响，以及美国总统特朗普计划收购格陵兰岛引发的市场波动，石油软实力向上，1月20日（周二）国际 油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2月期货结算价每桶涨0.90元至60.34美元，涨幅1.51%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油3月期货 结算价每桶涨0.98美元至64.92美元，涨幅1.53%。供应受阻对价格形成支撑，哈萨克斯坦最大的石油生产商近日在发电机火灾后暂停了Tengiz和Korolev油田 的生产。特朗普在社交媒体上再次对盟友发起抨击，欧洲对特朗普以夺取格陵兰为由发出的 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, particularly focusing on Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran, leading to an upward trend in oil prices as of January 8 [1][4] - The U.S. administration is planning to exert control over Venezuela's oil revenues, with President Trump indicating a desire to lower oil prices to around $50 per barrel [2][5] - The concept of "soft power" is emphasized, highlighting how the U.S. is using legal and financial mechanisms rather than military force to influence oil markets and control resources [3][6] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of January 8, 2021, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by $1.77 to $57.76 per barrel, a 3.16% increase, while Brent crude oil increased by $2.03 to $61.99 per barrel, a 3.39% rise [1] - The market is currently facing a supply surplus, yet geopolitical tensions are creating a risk premium that is pushing oil prices higher [4][6] Group 2: U.S. Strategy on Venezuela - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced the lifting of some sanctions on Venezuelan entities, aiming to stabilize the existing structure in Venezuela [2] - The U.S. is implementing a "non-contact blockade" strategy against Venezuela's oil exports, using legal sanctions and financial restrictions to diminish its export capabilities [3] - The U.S. strategy includes allowing the sale of Venezuelan oil to non-U.S. buyers, which could involve companies like Reliance Industries from India [2][5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical factors have led to the most pessimistic outlook among institutional investors regarding oil in nearly a decade, as indicated by a Goldman Sachs survey [2][6] - The risks associated with Iran, Russia, and Iraq are not due to actual production cuts but rather uncertainties in the rules governing oil exports, which are being translated into market risk premiums [4] Group 4: Soft Power Dynamics - The article outlines a model of "soft power" where the U.S. does not physically control oil resources but influences the market through financial and legal means [3][5] - The U.S. aims to create a competitive surplus in oil supply by relaxing sanctions on Russia and pressuring OPEC members like Saudi Arabia to increase production [5] - The evolving global energy order is characterized by a shift from unilateral dominance to a multipolar framework, as emerging markets seek to navigate the changing rules of oil trade [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interception of a sanctioned oil tanker by the U.S. military near Venezuela's coast, along with a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a rise in international oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The increase in oil prices is a result of the interplay between soft power (rules) and hard power (market data), influenced by U.S. sanctions and Federal Reserve policies [2]. - On December 10, 2023, WTI crude oil prices rose by $0.21 to $58.46 per barrel, a 0.36% increase, while Brent crude oil prices increased by $0.27 to $62.21 per barrel, a 0.44% rise [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influence - The U.S. military's action to seize the oil tanker is a manifestation of geopolitical rule dynamics, which may complicate Venezuela's ability to export oil, as shipping companies may become more reluctant to load Venezuelan crude [3]. - The ongoing U.S. sanctions against Venezuela have created a closed-loop of "sanctions-economic contraction-regime pressure," leading to persistent market concerns about long-term supply shortages [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% is expected to weaken the dollar, making oil priced in other currencies more expensive [4]. - Historical data indicates that during Fed rate cut cycles, commodity market inflows typically increase by an average of 23%, providing support for oil prices [4]. Group 4: Inventory Trends - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 1.812 million barrels in crude oil inventories, marking the first decline in approximately three weeks, which is significant as it exceeds the critical threshold of 1.5 million barrels [5]. - The divergence in regional inventory trends, with a 308,000-barrel increase in Cushing inventories against a national decline, highlights structural contradictions in the U.S. oil market [5]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The rise in international oil prices on December 10 is attributed to multiple converging factors, including the drop in U.S. inventories and expectations of further rate cuts, which have driven WTI and Brent prices upward [5]. - The price differential between WTI and Brent remains around $4 per barrel, reflecting the dynamic balance between U.S. shale oil exports and global market conditions [5].