Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term outlook for pure benzene and styrene is to wait and see. Styrene has minor contradictions, while pure benzene has a low absolute valuation. The chemical fundamentals are still weak, but the oil - blending price difference has opened up, and the stock market has started to hype anti - involution again. The chemical ETF has rebounded rapidly, boosting market sentiment. Currently, pure benzene is in a weak pattern, with high domestic supply and downstream maintaining above - neutral raw material inventories. The direct motivation for factories to sell ethylbenzene for oil - blending is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term as short - selling has certainty and long - buying has a profit - loss ratio [3][99]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply**: In November, 50,000 tons of pure benzene production is under maintenance, and 90,000 tons in December, mainly from Sinochem Quanzhou, Shanghai Petrochemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, etc. Some Shandong local refineries will increase their loads after solving quota issues, so the reduction in domestic supply from November to December is limited. The external market pressure is still high, with strong selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene from November to December, and imports remain high [3][99]. - **Demand**: Styrene plants are significantly reducing their loads in the short term, with 175,000 tons under maintenance in November and 70,000 tons in December. After December, the plant operation will gradually resume. The CPL negative feedback has started, and caprolactam plants are gradually reducing their loads, with 60,000 tons expected to be under maintenance in December. Phenol operation is gradually rising, with few maintenance plans in December, and its downstream PC still maintains high operation. Aniline operation is currently high, but maintenance will increase rapidly after December, with 20,000 tons under maintenance in November and 70,000 tons in December. The demand for 3S hard plastics downstream of styrene has slightly recovered, but they still face high - inventory problems, and some low - price goods stocked by traders have depreciated by 10% - 20% [3][99]. - **Market Situation in 2025**: In the first half of 2025, there was a continuous decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - stocking and unfulfilled downstream production expansion expectations. In the second half, domestic supply continued to increase, but it gradually entered a de - stocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total pure benzene output was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The expected apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The apparent demand growth rates in 2023 and 2024 were 17.2% and 12% respectively. From January to June 2025, the pure benzene import volume was 2.73 million tons, and high import pressure is expected to continue in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - **Valuation and Strategy**: Based on a crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. EB processing fees will expand in the short term, but the space is limited and will mainly fluctuate. For strategies, close short positions and expect short - term fluctuations. Hold the PX - BZ spread [3][99]. Styrene - **Production and Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, styrene is in a situation of high inventory, low profit, and neutral production [78][80]. - **Downstream Situation**: The high - growth period of the home appliance industry has ended, and the transmission path is complex. ABS production continues to expand. The production of PS, EPS, etc. also shows certain trends, with some products facing inventory and profit issues [84][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term contradiction of styrene is not significant, with expectations of reduced operation, inventory reduction, and neutral profit. The absolute valuation of pure benzene is low, and the chemical fundamentals are still weak, but the oil - blending price difference has opened. Attention should be paid to the incremental demand in the future. [3][99] - Currently, pure benzene faces triple pressures: weak downstream demand, poor purchasing willingness, and the return of supply with the opening of regional arbitrage. The downstream profit has been further squeezed during the recent decline of pure benzene, and the terminal demand is weak. [3][99] - The downstream 3S hard rubber of styrene has entered a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. The terminal downstream demand has not improved, and attention should be paid to whether the easing of the trade war will bring marginal demand increments after the Sino - US negotiation. The short - term absolute price will mainly fluctuate. [3][99] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and it will gradually decrease to 30,000 - 50,000 tons after October - November. New production capacity of 56,000 tons was put into operation in September, and 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. [3][99] - Imports: The import volume in September is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import volume of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports in November - December. The overseas supply pressure is still large. [3][99] 3.1.2 Demand - Styrene: The maintenance in September was concentrated, with a loss of 79,000 tons, mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. There will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons from October to November, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. At the same time, the new production of styrene is still being put into operation, and it is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will be put into operation in November, with an additional monthly output of 40,000 tons. [3][99] - Caprolactam: The CPL operation is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The current inventory of downstream raw materials is at a neutral level. [3][99] - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to put it into operation in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand. [3][99] - Aniline: The maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation has recovered. [3][99] 3.1.3 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. The EB processing fee will expand the profit in the short - term, but the space is limited, mainly fluctuating. [3][99] - Strategy: For the single - side operation, stop the loss of short positions; there is no strategy for the inter - period and cross - variety operations. [3][99] 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Production and Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene production contracted. Currently, it is in a situation of high inventory, low profit, and neutral production. [78][80] 3.2.2 Downstream Situation - The downstream 3S hard rubber is in a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. [3][99] 3.2.3 Strategy - The short - term absolute price will mainly fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issue of the ratio of aromatics to olefins. [3][99]