Group 1 - The recent agreement between the US and China is viewed as a temporary ceasefire rather than a final resolution to the trade conflict, with expectations of returning to negotiations in about a year [1][5] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that China has a limited timeframe of 12-24 months to maintain its advantages, suggesting a strategic shift in the US approach [1][3] - Former US Trade Representative Lighthizer emphasized that the current situation is a short-term truce, predicting a return to previous tensions within months [1][5] Group 2 - The US is actively working to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, as evidenced by a recent minerals cooperation agreement with Australia and new initiatives from the G7 aimed at reforming the global rare earth market [3][6] - The US plans to implement non-market measures, such as subsidies and tariffs, to counter China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain [3][6] - Companies like Lynas in Australia and MP Materials in the US are expanding their production capacities, while Japan is also investing in rare earth projects in Vietnam [3][10] Group 3 - The US is expected to escalate its restrictions on high-end chips, potentially adding more Chinese tech firms to the entity list and broadening the scope of foreign direct product rules [6][10] - The formation of alliances, such as the critical minerals alliance and the chip alliance, aims to exclude China from global high-tech supply chains, with collaboration from countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands [7][10] Group 4 - The Taiwan issue may become a focal point in future negotiations, with potential military sales and strategic initiatives planned by the US to challenge China's core interests [8][10] - China is not solely relying on rare earths; it is making advancements in the semiconductor sector and strengthening its electric vehicle supply chain, which poses challenges to European competitors [10][12] Group 5 - The current trade truce is seen as a preparation phase for more intense competition, with both the US and China using the year to bolster their respective technological capabilities [12][13] - The upcoming negotiations in 2026 are anticipated to be pivotal, focusing on broader issues beyond trade deficits, including development models and strategic endurance [12][13]