文丨编辑 来科点谱 然而疑问随之而来：一位在国内自顾不暇的总统，一场被各路势力紧盯的出访，当真能够如期成行吗？ «——【·前言·】——» 200亿美元对台军售方案遭"搁置"，特朗普亲口承认正与中方"磋商"敏感事项，美国最高法院以6：3判 定关税政策违宪——这位生意人总统的访华之行，尚未动身便已波澜迭起。 关税被判无效，访华欲找筹码 二月二十号，白宫对外放出川普访华日期的同一天，美国最高法院也给了他一个巨大的打击：以6比3裁 定他的"全球关税"做法从法律上站不住脚，等于宣布这套政策从一开始就无效。 更尴尬的是，大法官里不少是共和党提名的，其中还有川普亲自挑的人，但最终也没替他扛下这个结 论，说明在法律风险面前，党内也不愿继续给他背书。 三月三十一号，特朗普将展开为期三天的对华访问，这是近期国际关注的外交大事，过去了将近九年的 时间，再一次有美国总统踏足中国领土。 麻烦不只在面子，而在钱，真正棘手的是实打实的经济问题，加征关税收上来的税款总额特别大，足足 有 1750 亿美元左右，其中不少还被当作福利补贴或是政策专项资金花出去了。 现在被判无效后，要不要退、怎么退、谁来退，都会变成一连串诉讼和程序问题，不可能立刻 ...

赤裸裸卖台！美台贸易协定正式签署，台湾要在五年内采购3万亿新台币的美国物资。国台办的警告， 被赖清德当成了耳旁风，中国大陆的耐心正在被一点点耗尽。 从2025年4月起，美国总统特朗普对全球各国、各组织、各地区使出了"关税大棒"，其目的有这么几 个，一是增加国库收入，二是让制造业回流，三是减小贸易逆差。 起初，美国的关税策略，没有国家和地区支持。 然而，在特朗普的恩威并施的情况下，在2025年7月底之前，大多数国家和地区都签订了与美国的关税 协议。GDP前十的大国中，也就剩下加拿大和印度没签订。（目前，印度也和美国签订了贸易协定） 中国台湾，作为和美国经济交往密切的地区，也为了避免被加征高关税，开始同美国谈判，最后，达成 了框架协议，美国对台湾商品的关税，将从20%降到了15%，美国要求台湾要采购美国的大量物资，还 要求台湾企业向美国半导体投资2500亿美元，台湾当局要信用担保2500亿美元。 关于投资的事情，之前基本通过了。 2月13日，台湾一方和美国代表签署了"对等贸易协定"，根据正式签订的协议，美国商品出口到台湾将 享受零关税，台湾商品出口到美国，加征15%的关税。同时，协议中规定，在2025年到2029 ...

《台湾醒报》称，这次与之前军购记者会不同的是，赖清德"邀请"台陆军司令吕坤修、海军司令蒋正国 以及空军司令郑荣丰到场。台"国防部长"顾立雄在记者会上还声称，预算若通过，可带动防务自主产 能、经济效益以及人力资源利用，粗估可带来4000亿元新台币产值，增加约9万个工作机会。 对此，国民党"立法院"党团书记长林沛祥11日表示，支持防务不代表"闭着眼睛刷卡"。他表示，现在岛 内好像只要多问一句就是不爱台湾，只要想看细项就是拖延安全，"这种'先买再说、不能怀疑'的逻 辑，比信用卡推销还急"。 台湾地区领导人赖清德2月11日带着台"三军司令"召开记者会，气急败坏地敦促在野党尽快通过1.25万 亿元新台币的军购预算，威胁说"预算迟迟未通过，可能让台湾跌出美国优先名单、延宕关键武器装备 的交付，更让国际社会怀疑台湾守护自己的决心"。有岛内舆论直言，这暴露出赖清德当局已经黔驴技 穷了。 据台湾联合新闻网2月11日报道，赖清德当天上午在办公室主持记者会。他称，21年前他担任"立 委"时，美国决定出售8艘潜艇等武器，但"行政院"提出的军购特别预算案在"立法院"程序委员会被挡了 69次，最终导致流产。赖清德声称，如今"外在威胁"不 ...

Group 1 - The recent victory of Japan's ruling coalition in the House of Representatives elections has elevated the political stature of Kishi Sanae, indicating a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1][3][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant's remarks suggest that Japan's strengthened position may provide the U.S. with renewed opportunities to engage in competition with China, highlighting Japan's potential role as a key player in this geopolitical rivalry [5][9] - The upcoming military sales plan to Taiwan, potentially worth $20 billion, could significantly impact the Taiwan Strait situation and challenge China's bottom line, indicating the complexities of U.S.-China relations [7] Group 2 - Elon Musk's predictions regarding U.S.-China technological competition emphasize that by 2026, China's power generation capacity may reach three times that of the U.S., underscoring the importance of technological innovation for national economic strength [9][10] - Musk warns that without breakthroughs in technology, particularly in AI, humanoid robots, and electric vehicles, the U.S. risks falling behind China, highlighting vulnerabilities in U.S. strategic resources like rare earth elements [10][12] - The attitudes of Europe, Russia, and India towards U.S.-China relations are crucial, with European leaders expressing support for Japan's new leadership, while India's Prime Minister Modi acknowledges Kishi Sanae's potential contributions to regional stability [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The release of a poster titled "Chokehold" by the Chinese Coast Guard, depicting the boarding of a cargo ship by law enforcement, has sparked significant public and international reaction, particularly due to the ship being identified as Evergreen Marine, which is associated with transporting U.S. military equipment [1][5]. Group 1: Evergreen Marine's Controversies - Evergreen Marine is a globally recognized shipping company, ranking among the top ten in fleet size, with operations across five continents and an annual cargo volume in the hundreds of millions of tons [10]. - The company has faced public backlash for its actions, including a scandal during the 2024 Paris Olympics where a hotel under its management refused to display the Chinese national flag, leading to accusations of disrespect towards China [10]. - A significant portion of Evergreen's profits comes from the mainland Chinese market, with reports indicating that over half of its net profit of 200 billion New Taiwan dollars in 2021 was derived from routes serving mainland China [10]. Group 2: Military Transport Allegations - Evergreen Marine has been implicated in transporting U.S. military arms, including a shipment of M1A2T main battle tanks valued at over 1.2 billion USD, marking the first delivery of new tanks to Taiwan in 30 years [11][19]. - The company has been criticized for accepting military transport contracts under the guise of civilian logistics, raising questions about its operational integrity and loyalty [11][19]. - Reports indicate that the company faced operational challenges, such as being denied entry to Tianjin Port due to missing national flags and documentation, resulting in financial losses exceeding 10 million RMB [13]. Group 3: Implications of U.S. Military Sales - The U.S. government approved a military sales package to Taiwan worth over 11.1 billion USD, which includes offensive weaponry such as M142 HIMARS systems and M109A7 self-propelled howitzers [19][20]. - The logistics of transporting such heavy military equipment pose significant challenges, with maritime transport being the most feasible option, raising concerns about how these shipments will be conducted without attracting international scrutiny [20]. - The Chinese Coast Guard's actions are seen as a strategic move to prevent these military supplies from reaching Taiwan, serving as a warning to companies involved in military logistics [25]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Evergreen Marine - Evergreen Marine's reliance on the mainland Chinese market is critical, as losing access could halve its profits, given that its operations are heavily dependent on routes and ports in mainland China [26]. - The company's choices in engaging with military logistics may lead to severe repercussions, as it navigates the complex intersection of business interests and geopolitical tensions [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese military's exercises as a necessary action to safeguard national sovereignty and unity against "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference [1][5]. Military Exercises - The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command conducted joint exercises starting December 29, 2023, involving various military branches around Taiwan, signaling a strong warning against separatist actions [1]. Taiwan's Defense Spending - The Taiwanese government plans to increase its defense budget to 5% of GDP by 2030, with a commitment to spend approximately 1.25 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) on military purchases from the U.S. over the next eight years [2]. - The defense budget for 2026 is projected to reach 949.5 billion NTD, accounting for about 3.32% of Taiwan's GDP, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [3]. U.S. Military Sales to Taiwan - The U.S. Department of Defense announced a military sales package to Taiwan valued at approximately 11 billion USD, which has been met with criticism from various sectors within Taiwan [2]. - The article highlights that Taiwan has become the largest buyer of U.S. weapons from 2020 to 2022, indicating a growing dependency on U.S. military support [3]. Public Sentiment and Political Response - There is significant public opposition in Taiwan against the government's military spending and alignment with U.S. interests, with over 8 million citizens supporting a motion to impeach the current leadership [2]. - The article suggests that the current administration's actions are perceived as detrimental to Taiwan's future and well-being, pushing the populace towards conflict rather than peace [4]. Risks of Military Dependency - The article warns that reliance on U.S. military sales may create a false sense of security for Taiwan, as many contracts remain unfulfilled, leading to potential vulnerabilities in the event of conflict [4]. - It argues that the current trajectory of military spending and alignment with the U.S. could exacerbate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, endangering the lives of Taiwanese citizens [4]. Call for Unity and Peace - The article urges the Taiwanese populace to recognize the dangers of the current administration's policies and to advocate for peaceful development and cooperation across the Taiwan Strait [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent arms sale to Taiwan, amounting to a record $11.1 billion, signals a strategic shift in U.S. policy towards Taiwan, emphasizing systematic militarization rather than merely managing risks in the Taiwan Strait [11] Group 1: U.S. Arms Sale and Strategic Implications - The timing of the arms sale coincides with a perceived stable period in U.S.-China relations, allowing the U.S. to leverage the "Taiwan card" for geopolitical advantage without immediate confrontation [3] - The arms sale represents a structural shift in U.S. strategy, moving from a focus on maintaining balance in the Taiwan Strait to using arms sales as a strategic deterrent against China [12] - The nature of the arms being sold has transitioned from defensive and symbolic weapons to a focus on asymmetric warfare capabilities, including mobile and cost-effective systems designed to increase China's strategic costs [13] Group 2: China's Response and Countermeasures - In response to the arms sale, China has initiated systematic and escalated countermeasures against 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives involved in the arms sale, indicating a comprehensive approach to counter U.S. military support for Taiwan [5] - China's countermeasures target the underlying industrial and technological networks that support U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, signaling a shift towards institutional dismantling of these networks [7] - The ongoing U.S. arms sales and China's responses have evolved into a strategic game of rules and endurance, with China clearly delineating that the Taiwan issue is a non-negotiable red line [9]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced countermeasures against 20 U.S. military-related companies and 10 senior executives in response to the U.S. selling weapons to Taiwan, emphasizing that Taiwan is a core interest of China and any provocation will be met with strong retaliation [1][2] - The U.S. recently announced a significant arms sale to Taiwan valued at $11.1 billion, which includes $4 billion for 82 units of the HIMARS rocket systems and $4 billion for 60 self-propelled howitzers, marking the largest arms sale to Taiwan by the U.S. [2] - Companies affected by the sanctions include Northrop Grumman, known for developing stealth bombers and advanced missile systems, and Boeing's St. Louis division, which produces F-15 fighter jets and other military equipment [2][3] Group 2 - L3 Harris Maritime Services, another company under sanctions, provides technical services and logistics support to the U.S. Navy, including underwater combat systems and maritime engineering [3] - The sanctions involve freezing assets within China and prohibiting transactions with the listed companies and individuals, as well as denying visas and entry to the affected executives [1][2]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced countermeasures against 20 U.S. military-related companies and 10 senior executives in response to the U.S. decision to sell weapons to Taiwan [1][2] - The U.S. arms sale to Taiwan is valued at $11.1 billion, including $4 billion for 82 units of the HIMARS rocket system and $4 billion for 60 self-propelled howitzers, marking the largest arms sale to Taiwan by the U.S. [2] - Companies affected by the sanctions include Northrop Grumman, known for developing stealth bombers and advanced missile systems, and Boeing's St. Louis division, which produces F-15 fighter jets and Harpoon anti-ship missiles [2][3] Group 2 - L3 Harris Maritime Services, which provides technical services and logistics support to the U.S. Navy, is also among the sanctioned companies, focusing on unmanned vessels and underwater combat systems [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has imposed sanctions on 20 U.S. military-related companies and senior executives in response to the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which amount to over $11.1 billion, marking the largest arms sale to Taiwan in history [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan - The U.S. government announced a plan to sell weapons to Taiwan valued at over $11.1 billion, including 82 units of the HIMARS long-range precision strike system and 420 units of the Army Tactical Missile System, with related transactions exceeding $4 billion [1][3]. - The arms sale also includes 60 self-propelled howitzers and associated equipment valued at over $4 billion, as well as drone equipment worth over $1 billion [1][3]. Group 2: Chinese Response - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the U.S. arms sales severely violate the One China principle and the three joint communiqués between China and the U.S., significantly interfering in China's internal affairs and damaging its sovereignty [3][5]. - Sanctions include freezing assets of the listed companies and prohibiting any transactions or cooperation with them within China [3][4]. Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The sanctions reflect China's anger and serve as a strong response to what is perceived as a crossing of a red line by the U.S. regarding Taiwan [4][5]. - The Taiwan issue remains a critical point in U.S.-China relations, with analysts expressing concerns that the arms sales could escalate tensions and potentially lead to conflict [5].