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新天绿色能源(00956):Q3风电电量稳健增长LNG销售回暖
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-04 10:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in wind power generation, with a 9.47% year-on-year increase in total electricity generation for the first nine months of 2025, reaching 107.68 billion kWh [7]. - LNG sales have shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a 27.66% increase in wholesale gas sales and an 11.04% increase in LNG sales compared to the previous year [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a new wind power installation capacity of 1GW from 2025 to 2026, which is anticipated to drive long-term stable growth in wind power performance [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company reported total operating revenue of 14.445 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a decrease of 8.51% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 4.23% to 1.559 billion yuan [7]. - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) decreased by 5.4% to 0.415 yuan per kWh in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to an increase in market-oriented electricity trading [7]. - The financial cost has decreased significantly, with the comprehensive funding cost dropping to 2.41% by the end of September 2025, a reduction of 33 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [7]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 2.431 billion, 2.686 billion, and 3.037 billion yuan, respectively [7][8].
新天绿色能源(00956):Q3风电电量稳健增长,LNG销售回暖
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-04 08:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 14.445 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a decrease of 8.51% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 4.23% to 1.559 billion yuan [7] - Wind power generation showed steady growth with a total generation of 10.768 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.47%, despite a slight decline in the average on-grid electricity price [7] - LNG sales showed signs of recovery in Q3, with wholesale and LNG sales volumes increasing by 27.66% and 11.04% respectively, reversing the downward trend seen in the first half of the year [7] - The company has seen a significant reduction in accounts receivable, down to 6.207 billion yuan, primarily due to receiving substantial renewable energy subsidies [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 2.431 billion, 2.686 billion, and 3.037 billion yuan respectively, reflecting changes in gas sales volume and electricity prices [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 20,282 million, 21,372 million, 20,863 million, 23,163 million, and 25,533 million yuan respectively [6][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2,207 million, 1,672 million, 2,431 million, 2,686 million, and 3,037 million yuan for the same period [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share are expected to be 0.52, 0.40, 0.58, 0.64, and 0.72 yuan respectively [6]
申能股份(600642):火电降本夯实盈利基础,财务降费效果显著
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-08 04:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 29.619 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04%, aligning with expectations [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 56.27%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.08% based on the closing price on May 7 [7] - The report highlights a continued reduction in coal-fired power costs, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin increase of 4.89 percentage points to 15.57% in 2024 [7] - The company’s renewable energy capacity reached 6.732 million kilowatts, accounting for 36.3% of its total installed capacity, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [7] - The oil and gas segment showed stable gross profit growth, with revenue from oil and gas pipeline transportation increasing by 19.87% year-on-year [7] - The issuance of low-interest perpetual bonds has significantly reduced financing costs, with financial expenses decreasing by 7.4% year-on-year in 2024 and 22.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 4.106 billion yuan and 4.313 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 4.520 billion yuan, maintaining a favorable price-to-earnings ratio [7] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 29.776 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.5% [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 21.0% in 2025, reflecting ongoing cost management efforts [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.2% in 2025, indicating stable profitability [6]