财政健全化

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高市早苗面临“安倍经济学的魔咒”
日经中文网· 2025-10-06 08:12
自民党总裁高市早苗在与麻生太郎会谈后接受媒体采访(10月5日,东京永田町) 高市早苗长期信奉与其保守政治理念接近的安倍晋三。她自称是安倍经济学的继承者,主张积极财政的 必要性。如果在通胀局面下采取安倍经济学式的政策,就存在助长物价上涨风险,而物价上涨正是她所 强调的"最优先应对课题"…… 日本自民党总裁高市早苗在财政和金融政策方面以前首相安倍晋三的经济政策"安倍经济学"为蓝本。她 倾向于推行积极财政与金融宽松,并在日本央行的加息方针上表现出谨慎立场。如果在通胀局面下采取 安倍经济学式的政策,就存在助长物价上涨风险,而物价上涨正是她所强调的"最优先应对课题"。 高市极有可能在10月15日召集的临时国会上被指名为日本首相。预计就任后将尽快指示政府和执政党制 定经济对策。她在10月4日的记者会上强调:"无论如何都要全力投入物价高涨对策"。 高市围绕财政支出的表态,也产生了彰显与石破茂政权不同路线的效果。石破茂曾就安倍经济学表 示,"把经济变成了成本削减型的模式,这一点不好",一直对安倍经济学持否定态度。 她提出以"净债务余额"作为财政健全化目标。这一指标是从国家与地方的债务余额中扣除金融资产后计 算的。高市主张:" ...
石破辞职、日本走向何方
2025-09-09 02:37
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the political landscape in Japan, particularly focusing on the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the upcoming elections for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][2][6]. Core Points and Arguments - **Resignation of Shigeru Ishiba**: Ishiba resigned following the LDP's poor performance in the July 2025 Senate elections, where the ruling coalition failed to secure a majority, marking the lowest seat count in 10-15 years [2]. - **LDP Presidential Election Process**: The election will follow a complete process involving 590 votes, split between National Diet members and LDP members. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second round will occur with increased weight on National Diet votes [3][4]. - **Candidates and Policies**: Key candidates include Sanae Takaichi, who supports monetary easing and fiscal expansion, and Shinjiro Koizumi, who advocates for structural reforms and labor market flexibility [1][9][10]. - **Market Reactions**: Ishiba's resignation is expected to lead to a more favorable market environment, with potential for increased stock market activity and a weaker yen, as candidates are likely to adopt more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies compared to Ishiba [14][15]. - **Economic Policy Implications**: The new prime minister may implement slight fiscal relaxations, such as tax cuts, but significant increases in fiscal stimulus could risk downgrading Japan's credit rating due to high debt levels [16][18]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term, as the new prime minister will be in office for less than a month before any potential rate changes, and the central bank is waiting for wage data to assess inflation impacts [17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Japanese companies traditionally avoid layoffs during economic downturns, opting instead to reduce bonuses and extend working hours, which limits flexibility in the labor market [11][12]. - **Comparison with U.S. Practices**: Unlike U.S. firms that frequently adjust workforce levels based on economic conditions, Japanese firms maintain a more stable workforce, which can hinder their ability to adapt to economic fluctuations [11]. - **Potential for Increased Inequality**: Koizumi's proposed reforms to relax dismissal regulations could enhance labor market fluidity but may also exacerbate income inequality [13]. - **GDP Growth Indicators**: Recent data indicates Japan's nominal GDP growth at 4.9% for Q2 2025, suggesting improvements in consumer spending and corporate earnings, which could positively influence the overall economic outlook [18][19].