Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic policies of Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, who is expected to adopt a fiscal approach similar to Abenomics, emphasizing the need for active fiscal measures to address rising prices and inflation risks [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae identifies herself as a successor to Abenomics, advocating for active fiscal policies and monetary easing, while expressing caution regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2][6]. - She has proposed a "responsible active fiscal" approach, suggesting that issuing deficit bonds may be acceptable if necessary, which distinguishes her from other candidates [5][6]. - Kishi's fiscal target is based on "net debt balance," which is calculated by deducting financial assets from the total debt of the national and local governments, with a current ratio of 136% relative to GDP as of 2023 [5][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The Japanese government's debt-to-GDP ratio is reported to be as high as 240%, indicating significant room for increased fiscal spending under Kishi's proposed framework [6]. - Kishi has previously advocated for temporarily freezing the goal of achieving a primary balance surplus, prioritizing flexible fiscal spending in response to the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. - The article highlights concerns regarding the potential for rising prices if demand is stimulated without fiscal reform, as Japan faces a new inflationary environment [8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Perspective - Kishi is viewed as a monetary policy "dove," emphasizing that both fiscal and monetary responsibilities lie with the government, and she has criticized the idea of raising interest rates at this time [7][8]. - She has previously stated that raising interest rates would be detrimental to personal consumption and corporate investment, expressing concerns about a return to long-term deflation [7]. - The rising interest rates in Japan, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.67%, are expected to increase the financial burden on households, particularly in terms of housing loans [8].

Group 1 - The world economy is facing a complex situation with "Trump tariffs" acting as a brake and major countries' monetary easing serving as an accelerator [2][9] - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, indicating a shift in monetary policy [2][5] - Major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, are lowering interest rates, with the average policy rate in developed countries dropping from 4.2% to 3% [5][7] Group 2 - The number of corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. has reached the highest level since 2010, with 446 large enterprise bankruptcies reported from January to July 2025 [3] - Employment market is slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25% on September 17 [3][7] - Despite the influx of monetary easing, funds are not flowing into the real economy, leading to a distortion in financial markets [2][8] Group 3 - Investment in equipment is stagnating, with U.S. equipment investment expected to increase by only 0.8% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 [7][8] - Companies are diverting funds from equipment investment to financial markets, with a significant increase in Bitcoin holdings among global listed companies [8][9] - The average tariff rate has increased from 2.4% to 16.4%, adding an estimated $450 billion burden annually on imports [8][9] Group 4 - If monetary easing does not stimulate the real economy, investment returns in financial markets may decline, posing a risk of cooling down [9] - The Trump administration aims to attract $550 billion from Japan and $600 billion from Europe to revitalize domestic industries [9]