积极财政

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日本首相提名将延期,高市面临困难开局
日经中文网· 2025-10-09 08:00
高市总裁(中)等日本自民党领导层正在四处拜访各在野党(10月8日) 日本自民党总裁高市早苗正在推进旨在组建政府的联合执政的协商。自民党与公明党的协议 被罕见地延期,首相提名很可能推迟到10月20日以后。包括物价上涨对策在内的2025年度补 充预算案在年内通过变得艰难,外交日程也将受到影响。 高市8日与干事长铃木俊一等新领导层一同拜访各党党首。包括副总裁在内,自民党内的5位 高层,即"党五役"中麻生派占据3人。干事长代理由存在未记载政治资金问题的萩生田光一担 任。 长期与自民党联合执政的日本公明党代表(党首)齐藤铁夫要求高市在加强企业和团体捐款 限制等政治资金问题上划清界限。对于起用包括萩生田在内的原安倍派的未记载议员,公明 党内存在担忧。 在自民党的新领导层内具有影响力的副总裁麻生太郎与公明党及其支持母体创价学会保持距 离。高市在自民、公明两党尚未达成联合执政的协议前就与国民民主党的党首玉木雄一郎进 行了非正式会谈。 不信任感日趋加强的公明党内甚至出现了退出执政联盟的言论。齐藤铁夫表示,如果无法达 成联合执政协议,将不会在首相指名选举中投票给高市。 公明党9日向地方组织听取关于维持执政联盟的意见。自民、公明两 ...
高市早苗面临“安倍经济学的魔咒”
日经中文网· 2025-10-06 08:12
自民党总裁高市早苗在与麻生太郎会谈后接受媒体采访(10月5日,东京永田町) 高市早苗长期信奉与其保守政治理念接近的安倍晋三。她自称是安倍经济学的继承者,主张积极财政的 必要性。如果在通胀局面下采取安倍经济学式的政策,就存在助长物价上涨风险,而物价上涨正是她所 强调的"最优先应对课题"…… 日本自民党总裁高市早苗在财政和金融政策方面以前首相安倍晋三的经济政策"安倍经济学"为蓝本。她 倾向于推行积极财政与金融宽松,并在日本央行的加息方针上表现出谨慎立场。如果在通胀局面下采取 安倍经济学式的政策,就存在助长物价上涨风险,而物价上涨正是她所强调的"最优先应对课题"。 高市极有可能在10月15日召集的临时国会上被指名为日本首相。预计就任后将尽快指示政府和执政党制 定经济对策。她在10月4日的记者会上强调:"无论如何都要全力投入物价高涨对策"。 高市围绕财政支出的表态,也产生了彰显与石破茂政权不同路线的效果。石破茂曾就安倍经济学表 示,"把经济变成了成本削减型的模式,这一点不好",一直对安倍经济学持否定态度。 她提出以"净债务余额"作为财政健全化目标。这一指标是从国家与地方的债务余额中扣除金融资产后计 算的。高市主张:" ...
高市早苗重视这些经济和外交政策
日经中文网· 2025-10-05 08:04
日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗在4日的记者会上明确了"积极财政"政策方向。除了尽早降低汽油税之 外,高市还提出将支援亏损企业为员工加薪。外交方面,高市主张设置谍报机构的指挥部"国家情报 局"…… 在10月4日召开的记者会上,日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗明确了"积极财政"政策方向。除了尽早降低 汽油税之外,高市还提出将支援亏损企业为员工加薪。关于日本银行(央行)的货币政策,高市表 示"政府应承担责任",并要求与央行开展紧密对话。 在自民党总裁选举期间,高市早苗便将"负责任的积极财政"列为竞选承诺。4日的记者会上,她再次呼 吁尽早取消汽油税的原暂定税率(目前该税率约为每升25日元),同时提及正探讨增加地方政府用于应 对物价上涨的补贴资金。 高市早苗解释称,将为那些因亏损而无法适用"加薪促进税制"的中小企业及小规模经营者提供加薪支 持。"加薪促进税制"是通过减免加薪企业法人税来鼓励企业加薪的制度,但对于无需缴纳法人税的亏损 企业而言,该制度的实际益处有限。 在日本政府与央行的协作方面,高市早苗展现出积 极态度。她认为需求增长带动物价上涨的局面是理 想状态,表示"应与央行保持密切对话,直至实现这一目标"。她还指出"日本经济 ...
热点问答|高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁三问
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-10-04 20:39
新华社东京10月4日电 热点问答|高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁三问 新华社记者李子越 陈泽安 日本执政党自由民主党4日举行总裁选举,前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗胜出,成为自民党历史上 首位女总裁。在预计10月中旬举行的临时国会首相指名选举中,如果不出意外,高市将被指名为日本首 相。 高市早苗何许人也?她能当选首相吗?如当选,她会干些什么? 有何政坛履历 高市早苗1961年出生于日本奈良县。1993年当选众议员步入政坛。她历任日本经济产业副大臣、负责冲 绳及北方对策等事务的内阁府特命担当大臣、总务大臣、经济安全保障担当大臣等。 高市与安倍关系密切,是"安倍路线"的坚定继承人。据介绍,2006年安倍第一次当选日本首相时,高市 首次进入日本内阁,出任负责冲绳及北方对策等事务的内阁府特命担当大臣。2012年安倍第二次当选首 相后,高市担任自民党政调会长,并于2014至2017年、2019至2021年担任总务大臣。 高市有3次参加自民党总裁选举的经历。2021年首次参选未果;2024年与石破茂一起进入决胜轮;本次 选举中当选自民党总裁。 会否当选首相 据日本媒体报道,总裁选举结束后,日本国会的首相指名选举预计将于10月 ...
近2.3万亿化债资金快速落地,下半年地方还有哪些新举措
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 12:43
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the urgency of accelerating the replacement of existing hidden debts by local governments in the second half of the year, suggesting that the total debt replacement quota should be utilized sooner rather than later [1][2][4] Group 1: Debt Replacement Progress - In the first half of the year, local governments issued approximately 22,607 billion yuan in government bonds for debt replacement, accounting for about 81% of the total annual quota of 28,000 billion yuan [1][3] - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for debt replacement reached about 17,900 billion yuan, representing approximately 90% of the planned 20,000 billion yuan quota [3] - The rapid issuance of bonds in the first quarter reflects the government's commitment to debt replacement, which has alleviated fiscal pressure and allowed for more funds to be directed towards economic development [3][4] Group 2: Challenges and Policy Responses - Despite progress, local governments face challenges in debt replacement due to sluggish tax revenue growth and a significant decline in land transfer income [2][4] - A new policy package introduced by the central government aims to issue a total of 10 trillion yuan in special bonds from 2024 to 2028 to replace existing hidden debts, thereby extending repayment periods and reducing interest burdens [2][6] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 2.8 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt replacement in 2025, including 2 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds and 800 billion yuan in new special bonds [2] Group 3: Future Recommendations - Experts recommend that local governments should expedite the issuance of new special bonds for debt replacement, ensuring that the annual debt replacement targets are met [6][7] - There is a call for a comprehensive assessment of local government debts, including those not currently classified as hidden debts, to better understand the actual debt pressure faced by local governments [7][8] - The transformation of local government financing platforms is crucial, with suggestions to enhance their market competitiveness and reduce reliance on local government support [5][8]
6月全国PMI数据解读:PMI整体暂稳,关注行业分化
Haitong Securities International· 2025-07-03 07:10
Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]
国泰海通|宏观:PMI整体暂稳,关注行业分化——6月全国PMI数据解读
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-01 10:40
Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].
2025年4月财政数据点评:积极财政:加快节奏
Haitong Securities International· 2025-05-23 11:50
Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[6] - In April 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 65,556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[8] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure from January to April 2025 was 93,581 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%[9] - In April 2025, the expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, slightly higher than March's 5.7%[9] - Social security and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, indicating a focus on welfare[11] Government Fund Insights - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to 12,586 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025[17] - In April 2025, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 8.1%, compared to -11.7% in March[17] - Government fund budget expenditure grew by 17.7% year-on-year, with April's growth rate reaching 44.7%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, focusing on urban renewal projects and infrastructure improvements[22] - There is an emphasis on increasing local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to support economic growth[22] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas demand, which could impact future fiscal performance[23]
国泰海通|宏观:积极财政:加快节奏
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-21 15:15
报告导读: 4月财政收支增速边际回升,反映经济韧性。二季度或主要加快落实存量政 策,关注城市更新项目的进展以及两新政策的力度。 狭义收入:增速继续回升。 2025 年 1-4 月,全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.4% ,但是 4 月当月增 速 1.9% ,相比 3 月的增速 0.3% 有所回升。在海外不确定性扰动、我国 PPI 价格低位运行的情况下, 4 月财政收入增速回升反映了积极财政发力后,经济表现出一定的韧性。从主要分项看,增值税、消费 税、企业所得税收入增速边际回落。个人所得税收入增速明显回升。此外,出口退税增速虽然边际回落, 但是表现尚可,或与出口受转口贸易的支撑有关。接下来,随着关税局势缓和,外需或边际回升。此外, 非税收入增速持续回落,可能对地方收入有所拖累。 狭义支出:增速平稳,保障民生。 2025 年 1-4 月,全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 4.6% ,其中从 4 月当月同比增长 5.8% ,相比 3 月的增速 5.7% 略微抬升。从节奏看,目前支出进度与过去两年的同期 水平大体相当。这体现出,财政政策仍较为积极,对经济保持应有的支持力度。 政府性基金:收入回升,支出提速。 2025 年 ...
经济回升向好带动财政收入改善 重点领域支出得到有效保障
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-04-21 02:46
Revenue Summary - In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-February. March saw a monthly increase turning positive [1] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 47,450 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 12,739 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][3] - March's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February, primarily driven by a narrowing decline in tax revenue [1][3] Expenditure Summary - In the first quarter, national general public budget expenditure reached 72,815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with March's growth accelerating to 5.7% [2] - The expenditure progress for the first quarter was 24.5%, higher than the average of 23.7% over the past five years, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal measures [2] - Major expenditure areas included social security and employment at 13,570 billion yuan (up 7.9%), education at 11,249 billion yuan (up 7.8%), and health at 5,848 billion yuan (up 2.2%) [5] Tax Revenue Performance - In March, major tax revenues showed improvement, with VAT increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, and corporate income tax rising by 16.0%, indicating potential marginal improvement in corporate profitability [4] - Non-tax revenue growth was driven by dividends from central financial enterprises and local asset management, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4] - The significant decline of 58.5% in personal income tax was attributed to the timing of year-end bonuses and a high base from the previous year [4] Government Fund Overview - In the first quarter, government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure was 19,769 billion yuan, up 11.1% [6] - Revenue from state-owned land use rights fell by 15.9% to 6,849 billion yuan, with related expenditures also declining by 11% [6]