当然2026年"国补"上述四大类别中涵盖的具体补贴对象，则有增有减。比如，2025年家电产品"国补"共 有12类，分别是冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机、微波炉、净水器、 洗碗机、电饭煲。而2026年家电"国补"对象降至6类，即冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器， 且必须是1级能效或水效标准的产品。 这意味着2026年家用灶具、吸油烟机、微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲不再被纳入"国补"。 根据《通知》，2026年数码"国补"对象是手机、平板、智能手表手环、智能眼镜等4类产品，相比2025 年新增了一项智能眼镜。另外，《通知》还支持智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴，具体补 贴品类、补贴标准由地方结合实际自主合理制定。 从补贴力度来看，2026年"国补"有明显调整。 家用灶具、吸油烟机、微波炉、电饭煲等不再纳入"国补"。 备受关注的2026年消费品以旧换新（下称"国补"）政策明晰。 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通 知》（下称《通知》），其中明确2026年实施消费品以旧换新，即老百姓口中的"国补"，但对补贴范围 ...

日本经济新闻近日进行"100名日本企业家问卷调查"。围绕中国对高市早苗"台湾有事"答辩 的强硬反对，企业家正在冷静应对。关于中日关系恶化对经营的影响，称"负面"和"总体上 负面"的合计为67.3％…… 日本的主要企业正在要求放宽工作时间限制。在日本经济新闻的"100名日本企业家问卷调查"中，近9成 回答支持高市早苗政府正在讨论的放宽方针。要求扩大裁量劳动制对象的呼声也很多。企业希望扩大灵 活的工作方式、提高生产效率的意向变得明显。 问卷调查以日本国内主要企业的社长（包括会长等）为对象，于12月2日至22日实施，得到了141家企业 的回答。 高市政权在新成立的"日本成长战略会议"的首次会议上提出了"应纳入综合经济对策的重点措施"。列举 了放宽工作时间限制的措施，明确表示"将以维持身心健康和让员工选择为前提，从多方面探讨与工作 时间法制相关的政策应对方式"。 提高加班上限、扩大将劳资双方预先约定的时间视为工作的裁量劳动制将成为选项。 对于日本政府讨论放宽工作时间限制，"赞成"（26.3%）和"总体上赞成"（60.0%）合计占86.3%。作为 赞成的理由（多选），认为"有助于实现灵活的工作方式"（92.7%）的意见 ...

日本经济新闻近日进行"100名日本企业家问卷调查"。围绕中国对高市早苗"台湾有事"答辩的强硬反 对，企业家正在冷静应对。关于中日关系恶化对经营的影响，称"负面"和"总体上负面"的合计为 67.3％…… 日本的主要企业正在要求放宽工作时间限制。在日本经济新闻的"100名日本企业家问卷调查"中，近9成 回答支持高市早苗政府正在讨论的放宽方针。要求扩大裁量劳动制对象的呼声也很多。企业希望扩大灵 活的工作方式、提高生产效率的意向变得明显。 问卷调查以日本国内主要企业的社长（包括会长等）为对象，于12月2日至22日实施，得到了141家企业 的回答。 高市政权在新成立的"日本成长战略会议"的首次会议上提出了"应纳入综合经济对策的重点措施"。列举 了放宽工作时间限制的措施，明确表示"将以维持身心健康和让员工选择为前提，从多方面探讨与工作 时间法制相关的政策应对方式"。 提高加班上限、扩大将劳资双方预先约定的时间视为工作的裁量劳动制将成为选项。 对于日本政府讨论放宽工作时间限制，"赞成"（26.3%）和"总体上赞成"（60.0%）合计占86.3%。作为 赞成的理由（多选），认为"有助于实现灵活的工作方式"（92.7%）的意见 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with infrastructure investment becoming a drag on the economy, prompting the economic work conference to emphasize "investment stabilization" [2][9] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that "active fiscal policies" will drive investment stabilization, with a focus on structural opportunities in the construction sector, including western infrastructure, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure [2][9] Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2025, FAI experienced a comprehensive decline, with infrastructure investment significantly dropping, particularly in the third quarter, where narrow infrastructure investment turned negative, declining by 8.7% in October [23][28] - The report notes that the actual situation of infrastructure investment may have deteriorated earlier than expected in 2024, despite apparent growth in infrastructure investment [30][34] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in western infrastructure projects, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure driven by technological advancements [45][46] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend leading companies in western regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and exploring opportunities in Xinjiang and Tibet [9][10] Group 3: Overseas Engineering - The report indicates that overseas engineering demand remains strong, driven by favorable client structures and business models of central enterprises, as well as private enterprises expanding into international markets [10][11] - Key recommendations for overseas engineering include companies like China National Materials, Jianghe Group, and Jinggong Steel Structure, which are expected to perform well in terms of earnings and dividends [10][11] Group 4: New Infrastructure - The report identifies several sectors within new infrastructure that are expected to see growth, including clean rooms, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and low-altitude economy, driven by technological advancements and safety demands [10][11] - Specific companies recommended in these sectors include Yaxiang Integration for clean rooms and China Nuclear Engineering for nuclear power projects [10][11] Group 5: Traditional Demand - The report notes that traditional demand, particularly in real estate, remains under pressure, with new and second-hand housing demand still facing challenges [11] - It highlights the potential turning point for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which may benefit from improved cyclical sentiment and operational efficiency [11] Group 6: Reform and Restructuring - The report discusses the need for deep reforms in the construction sector to enhance global competitiveness, focusing on identifying quality assets and new business opportunities for central enterprises [12][12] - It also emphasizes the importance of market value management and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the construction industry [12][12]

乐天证券经济研究所的所长爱宕伸康认为，2026年的日本经济将"继续温和扩大"。他分析 称："在就业环境未恶化且名义工资上涨的情况下，此前日本经济从未陷入过衰退"。他同时 补充道："风险在于财政支出扩大带来的长期利率上升和日元贬值，以及美国股市的调整"。 与会者对财政和货币政策对市场的影响表现出高度关注。2026年度政府预算案的一般会计总 额预计将超过120万亿日元，创历史新高。另一方面，日本银行（央行）已将政策利率上调至 0.75％，这是30年来的最高水平，作为长期利率指标的新发行10年期国债收益率已超过 2％。 摩根大通证券的首席经济学家藤田亚矢子表示："物价上涨问题本来应该由日银通过政策利率 来应对，现在却要以财政手段来解决，当前正面临这样做是否妥当的考验"。她担忧地表 示："如果财政扩张和货币政策调整滞后的情况叠加在一起，市场发生动荡的风险将加大"。 高市早苗强调："当下日本所需的是以负责任的积极财政来增强国力，现在不开始行动就来不 及了"。她解释说，企业收益改善将带动加薪，消费也会增加，形成良性循环。她同时 称："从长远来看，能够实现不提高税率也能增加税收的局面，才是负责任的积极财政"。 筒井义信在致 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the recent cabinet formation by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, emphasizing the inclusion of her rivals from the presidential election to showcase party unity [1][2][3] - The cabinet features only two female members, which is below expectations, highlighting ongoing gender representation issues in Japanese politics [1][5] Group 1: Cabinet Composition - Takaichi appointed key figures from her presidential election rivals, including Yoshinobu Nishimura as Defense Minister, Yoshifumi Matsumoto as Minister of Internal Affairs, and Toshimitsu Motegi as Foreign Minister, to promote party unity [2][4] - The cabinet includes a significant number of newcomers, with over half of the members being first-time appointees, totaling ten [5][6] Group 2: Gender Representation - Only two women were appointed to the cabinet, which is less than the anticipated six, raising concerns about gender equality in leadership roles [5][6] - Takaichi had previously expressed a commitment to creating a cabinet comparable to Nordic countries in terms of female representation, indicating a potential future focus on increasing women's roles in government [5][6] Group 3: Political Strategy - Takaichi's strategy involved keeping personnel decisions confidential until the last moment to avoid leaks and potential disputes within the party [6] - The appointment of trusted allies, such as Minoru Kihara as Chief Cabinet Secretary, reflects Takaichi's long-term planning and loyalty within her administration [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - High Sannae has been elected as Japan's 104th Prime Minister, becoming the first female Prime Minister in Japan's history [1] - She is a close ally of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and is seen as a staunch successor to his policies [1] - High has a history of holding various significant positions in the government, including Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and Minister for Economic Security [1] Group 2: Policy Positions - High advocates for a strong conservative stance, emphasizing the restoration of traditional Japanese values, constitutional reform, and enhanced national security [2] - In economic policy, she promotes "active fiscal" measures, including tax cuts and increased local government support to address rising prices [2] - Her foreign policy aims to continue Abe's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy, focusing on strengthening cooperation with ASEAN and global southern countries [2] Group 3: Security and Immigration Policies - High proposes to strengthen the Self-Defense Forces and improve the treatment of self-defense personnel, while not ruling out increased defense spending at the request of the United States [2] - On immigration, she supports stricter controls on illegal immigrants and intends to scrutinize foreign capital inflows [3] - High's historical perspective is notably right-leaning, with a history of visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which may create diplomatic tensions in East Asia [3]

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the coalition agreement between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is likely to lead to policy stagnation and could impact Japan's diplomatic agenda, with potential consequences for the new government's stability and longevity [2][5][10]. Group 1: Coalition and Leadership Dynamics - The coalition agreement between the LDP and Komeito has been unusually postponed, with the prime minister's nomination likely pushed to after October 20 [2]. - High-ranking officials within the LDP, including influential Vice President Taro Aso, are distancing themselves from Komeito, raising concerns about the stability of the coalition [5]. - Komeito's leader, Tetsuo Saito, has expressed the need for clarity on political funding issues, particularly regarding the appointment of members with unreported political funds [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Budget Challenges - High市 has emphasized the urgency of addressing rising prices and has proposed expanding support funds for local governments, but the delay in forming a government complicates the passage of the 2025 supplementary budget [5][6]. - The current government lacks a majority in both houses of parliament, making it difficult to pass budget proposals without support from opposition parties [6]. - The proposed tax reforms and budget for 2025 are under scrutiny, with the National Democratic Party opposing the budget due to insufficient funding guarantees [6]. Group 3: Diplomatic Engagements - High市 plans to attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia starting October 26, but delays in her appointment could reduce preparation time for diplomatic engagements [8]. - Upcoming meetings with U.S. President Trump and discussions on trade agreements and security cooperation are anticipated, highlighting the importance of timely leadership transition [9]. - The new government's approach to historical issues and relations with China and South Korea will be closely monitored, as past administrations have maintained high approval ratings initially [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic policies of Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, who is expected to adopt a fiscal approach similar to Abenomics, emphasizing the need for active fiscal measures to address rising prices and inflation risks [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae identifies herself as a successor to Abenomics, advocating for active fiscal policies and monetary easing, while expressing caution regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2][6]. - She has proposed a "responsible active fiscal" approach, suggesting that issuing deficit bonds may be acceptable if necessary, which distinguishes her from other candidates [5][6]. - Kishi's fiscal target is based on "net debt balance," which is calculated by deducting financial assets from the total debt of the national and local governments, with a current ratio of 136% relative to GDP as of 2023 [5][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The Japanese government's debt-to-GDP ratio is reported to be as high as 240%, indicating significant room for increased fiscal spending under Kishi's proposed framework [6]. - Kishi has previously advocated for temporarily freezing the goal of achieving a primary balance surplus, prioritizing flexible fiscal spending in response to the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. - The article highlights concerns regarding the potential for rising prices if demand is stimulated without fiscal reform, as Japan faces a new inflationary environment [8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Perspective - Kishi is viewed as a monetary policy "dove," emphasizing that both fiscal and monetary responsibilities lie with the government, and she has criticized the idea of raising interest rates at this time [7][8]. - She has previously stated that raising interest rates would be detrimental to personal consumption and corporate investment, expressing concerns about a return to long-term deflation [7]. - The rising interest rates in Japan, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.67%, are expected to increase the financial burden on households, particularly in terms of housing loans [8].

Group 1 - The new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, has clarified the direction of "active fiscal" policy, emphasizing the need to lower gasoline taxes and support loss-making companies in raising employee salaries [2][4] - Takaichi reiterated her commitment to "responsible active fiscal" policies during her campaign, advocating for the early cancellation of the current gasoline tax rate of approximately 25 yen per liter and exploring increased subsidies for local governments to address rising prices [4][6] - Takaichi expressed a proactive attitude towards collaboration between the government and the Bank of Japan, indicating a preference for continued monetary easing to stimulate demand and manage inflation [6][8] Group 2 - The potential cancellation of both gasoline and light oil tax rates could result in a revenue loss of approximately 1.5 trillion yen annually, raising concerns about funding sources for proposed policies [6][8] - Takaichi's proposal to increase the basic deduction for income tax could further expand fiscal spending, leading to risks of market sell-offs if financial markets perceive a loosening of Japan's fiscal policy [6][8] - The need for cooperation with opposition parties to pass the supplementary budget and ensure the smooth passage of the 2026 budget is critical, as the current special public bond law will expire in 2025 [8]