2026年才刚开始，欧美就图穷匕首见，欧盟征收碳关税，美国突然改口，双方对大国先下手为强。与此同时，高市早苗很得意，在新年贺词中，她扔出了四 个字，这四个字直接坐实了她的狼子野心。三方势力行动不同，但都指向大国，难道是早就串通好的？ 欧盟的碳关税政策在今年1月1日正式进入执行阶段，第一批被征税的产品包括钢铁、水泥、铝、化肥和电力。大国是这些东西的重要出口国，关税政策一下 放，大国受到的影响立刻显现。 这还不算完，欧盟计划把更多产品纳入征税范围，比如家电、机械设备等，对大国制造企业来说，这不仅提高了出口门槛，还提高了成本。欧盟这次还提 出，要把用于生产的"废钢、废铝"等材料也算进碳排放，如此要求，已经严苛的不能再严苛。 过去，很多企业靠"废料回收"降低排放指标，现在这条路被彻底堵死。然而，欧盟是相当双标的，政策落地前，欧盟设立了所谓"脱碳基金"，说是为了帮助 企业适应新政策。但这个基金只对欧洲企业开放，前提条件是，这些本地企业要有明确的环保计划。 但对于进口企业，比如来自大国的钢铁、化肥公司，即便环保做得不错也拿不到一分钱补贴，反而还要交税。欧盟这套碳税制度不光让大国企业头疼，一些 欧洲周边国家也为之不满。像波 ...

日本首相高市早苗在首相官邸接受《日本经济新闻》独家专访 日本首相高市早苗12月23日在首相官邸接受《日本经济新闻》独家采访。谈及"负责任的积极财政"、因 自身发言而对立的中日关系等。高市早苗说：日本对与中国的各种对话持开放态度…… 日本首相高市早苗12月23日在首相官邸接受《日本经济新闻》独家采访。谈及"负责任的积 极财政"、因自身发言而对立的中日关系等。具体采访内容如下： 记者： 请谈谈财政和经济政策。您提出的负责任的积极财政的"责任"重点在哪里？ 高市早苗： 我倡导的负责任的积极财政的责任，是对活在当下的国民和活在未来的国民的责 任。 将兼顾建设强有力的经济与实现财政的可持续性。并将其传承给下一代。这样的努力，是活 在当下的我们对未来世代应尽的责任。 政府当然也会留意利率动向，将政府债务余额的增长率控制在经济增长率的范围内，努力使 政府债务余额占国内生产总值（GDP）的比重稳步下降，以确保财政的可持续性，提高国内 外市场的信心。 财政的可持续性是关键。此次的经济对策以及2025年度的补充预算，正是在负责任的积极财 政的想法下，在"生活安全保障"、特别是尽早应对物价上涨问题的同时，通过"危机管理投 资"、保 ...

Core Insights - The overall assessment of Japan's economic situation remains unchanged, indicating a "moderate recovery" despite some signs of weakness [1] Economic Assessment - The evaluations for personal consumption, production activities, and employment conditions have not changed [1] - The report emphasizes the need to pay attention to rising prices and the impact of U.S. trade policies on the economic outlook [1] Fiscal Policy - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's call for "responsible proactive fiscal policy," aiming to balance economic revitalization with fiscal health through reforms in both expenditure and revenue [1]

Policy Differences - High City emphasizes "responsible active fiscal policy" with increased support for strategic industries like semiconductors, AI, and defense, contrasting with Abe's focus on long-term growth through deregulation and corporate governance reform[2] - High City's monetary policy is more cautious due to high inflation, making it difficult to replicate Abe's strong intervention in the central bank[2] - Abe's policies aimed at breaking deflation through aggressive monetary easing, while High City seeks to align monetary policy with fiscal expansion[12] Current Macroeconomic Environment - Japan's debt sustainability remains manageable, with domestic investors holding 88.1% of government bonds, reducing default risk[17] - Consumer confidence is expected to improve as real wages rise and the stock market wealth effect enhances household balance sheets, with leverage ratios nearing pre-pandemic levels[3] - Manufacturing investment is entering a favorable phase, supported by inventory replenishment cycles and fiscal policy backing, with corporate profit margins at high levels[3] Currency and Stock Market Outlook - The Japanese yen is expected to experience oscillating upward movement due to the normalization of monetary policy and the Fed's ongoing rate cuts, which will support yen appreciation[4] - The Nikkei 225 index has risen by 31.4% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, with about half of this increase driven by expectations of High City's policies[4] - Future market performance will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation, with external demand potentially weakened by a stronger yen impacting export competitiveness[4] Risks - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies could lead to fluctuations in overseas demand, while global geopolitical conflicts may exceed expectations[5]

Group 1: Core Points of the Speech - The core of the speech emphasizes the strengthening of Japan's defense and security policies, with a focus on the Japan-U.S. alliance and multilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region [1][2] - High City plans to increase defense spending, aiming to achieve the target of 2% of GDP by the current fiscal year, ahead of the previously set 2027 deadline [1] - Economic policies will focus on responsible fiscal measures to address rising prices and integrate tax and social security reforms to alleviate the burden on low- and middle-income groups [1] Group 2: Implementation Challenges - Analysts highlight significant challenges in implementing these policies due to insufficient fiscal support, a fragile governing coalition, and substantial public opinion pressure [3] - The proposed increase in defense spending lacks a clear funding source, as previous plans to raise taxes faced strong public opposition [3] - The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party is seen as unstable, with potential policy disagreements that could threaten cooperation [3][4] Group 3: Public Support and Expectations - A recent national poll indicates a high approval rating of 71% for High City's cabinet, attributed to the "new prime minister effect" [5] - High City, as Japan's first female prime minister, brings a sense of novelty and addresses pressing social concerns, which resonates with the public [6] - However, historical trends suggest that high initial support may decline if not backed by tangible achievements, with early signs of public disappointment emerging due to controversial appointments [6]

Core Points - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi delivered her first policy speech since taking office, emphasizing the need to strengthen national defense and security measures [1][2] - The government aims to achieve the target of defense spending reaching 2% of GDP ahead of schedule, moving the deadline from 2027 to the current fiscal year [1] - In foreign policy, the focus will be on enhancing multilateral security cooperation with allies, particularly the US, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, while maintaining a constructive relationship with China [1][2] Defense and Security - The government plans to revise the "three security documents" by the end of 2026, which include the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Force Development Plan [1] - There is a strong emphasis on a hardline and conservative approach to security, which has raised concerns among the Japanese public [2] Economic Policy - The administration will adopt a "responsible active fiscal" policy aimed at improving living standards through increased local subsidies and energy assistance [1] - Tackling rising living costs is identified as a top priority for the government [1] Social Security and Foreign Policy - A bipartisan "National Conference" will be established to discuss social security reforms, involving experts and scholars [2] - The government will enhance regulations regarding foreign ownership of land in Japan, ensuring compliance from foreign residents [2] Political Landscape - Prime Minister Takashi expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue with opposition parties, given the ruling party's minority status in both houses of parliament [2] - The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has indicated plans to challenge the government's security policies in the Diet [2]

Group 1: Core Policy Points - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's inaugural policy speech emphasizes a strong and conservative stance in security and foreign affairs, raising concerns among the public [1][2] - In the security sector, Takashi plans to accelerate the goal of defense spending to 2% of GDP from 2027 to this fiscal year and revise key security documents by the end of 2026 [2] - On foreign policy, Takashi aims to deepen multilateral security cooperation centered around the US-Japan alliance, while acknowledging the need for a constructive relationship with China despite unresolved security issues [2] Group 2: Economic and Social Policies - Takashi advocates for "responsible active fiscal policy" to promote industries like artificial intelligence and support the livelihoods of low- to middle-income groups through local subsidies and energy assistance [2] - The government will strengthen regulations on foreign land purchases and ensure compliance from foreign residents in Japan [2] Group 3: Challenges to Implementation - Takashi faces challenges in securing stable fiscal sources for increased defense spending, as previous plans for tax increases were postponed due to public opposition [5] - The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party is fragile, lacking a majority in both houses of parliament, which may hinder policy implementation [5] - Public concern is growing over Takashi's hawkish policies, with media reports indicating a significant shift in Japan's post-war development direction [5] Group 4: Public Support and Political Dynamics - A recent poll shows Takashi's cabinet approval rating at 71%, benefiting from the "new prime minister effect" and public expectations following a political stagnation period [7] - However, historical trends suggest that high initial support may decline without tangible achievements, with past administrations experiencing similar patterns [7] - Public disappointment is already surfacing, particularly regarding the appointment of officials linked to scandals, which has drawn criticism from opposition parties [7][8]