Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in tax revenue growth, contributing to an increase in fiscal revenue in October [2][4] - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with October alone seeing a revenue of 2.26 trillion yuan, up 3.2% compared to September [2][5] - Tax revenue in October amounted to 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, which is a key driver for fiscal income [2][5] Group 2 - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to a stable economy, with resilient production and consumption, leading to improved corporate performance and higher tax contributions [2][5] - Major tax categories showed varied growth, with domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax increasing by 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively [5][6] - Stamp duty revenue surged by 29.5% to 378.1 billion yuan, driven by an active capital market, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 88.1% [5][6] Group 3 - Non-tax revenue has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.1% for the first ten months, and a notable decrease of 33% in October alone [6][7] - Government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was 3.45 trillion yuan, down 2.8%, indicating pressure on land finance due to negative growth in land transfer income [7][8] - General fiscal expenditure growth has slowed, with a total of 22.58 trillion yuan spent from January to October, a 2% increase, and a significant drop in October's expenditure by 9.78% [9][10] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need for policy continuity to support economic stability, with expectations for proactive fiscal policies in 2026, including a deficit rate of around 4% and a total fiscal expenditure of approximately 43 trillion yuan [3][10] - The current fiscal spending pace is slower than usual, with infrastructure and social spending growth rates declining [9][10] - The focus for the upcoming period is on accelerating the implementation of existing policies to generate tangible outcomes [10]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 一季度狭义财政收支分化。一般公共预算收入同比-1.1%，其中税收收入同比-3.5%，和去年全年的-3.4%大致相当，可能部分与PPI及名义增长中枢依然有 待提升有关；但支出同比达4.2%，显示出积极财政的特征。今年以来支出的主要拉动来自普通国债（非特别国债）节奏的显著前置，1-3月普通国债进度达30%左 右，为近年同期的最高水平。 第二， 一季度广义财政同样呈收支分化特征。政府性基金收入同比-11%、支出同比11.1%，收支差1万亿元，高于2024年，反映了广义财政托底较去年更加积极。 我们理解可能一则有去年底未使用完毕的超长期特别国债和专项债资金在今年年初形成支出；二则尽管用于"两新""两重"的超长期特别国债还未发行，中央已提前 安排了"两新"预拨付资金810亿元用于以旧换新、"两重"资金2300亿元用于项目建设，可在一季度形成支出。 第三， 从3月单月情况来看，较1-2月有边际好转。狭义财政一般公共预算收入当月同比0.3%，较前值-1.6%有所回升；其中税收收入同比-2.2%，较前值的-3.9%亦 ...