Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's plans for economic policy implementation in the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the coming year [2]. - There is an expectation of a mild expansion in fiscal policy, reflected in an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt to support the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - The fiscal policy will likely follow the "debt replacement first, then investment" approach, with a coordinated issuance of various types of bonds [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Plans - Special refinancing bonds worth 2 trillion yuan will be issued in the first and second quarters to alleviate local government hidden debt pressures [3]. - The new special bond quota is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, accelerating in the second quarter [3]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in parallel with special bonds [3]. Group 3: Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for enhancing policy effectiveness, with ongoing collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China [3]. - The central bank is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity environment to support the large-scale issuance of government bonds in the new year [3]. Group 4: VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, emphasizing the need for effective legal support to ensure smooth implementation [4][5]. - The VAT Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will maintain the current tax rate structure of 13%, 9%, and 6% [5].

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for all departments to implement the overall requirements and policy orientation for economic work in the coming year, accelerating the formulation of specific implementation plans [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of cross-departmental collaboration to form a joint effort in promoting development, ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The fiscal policy is expected to moderately expand, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt to provide sustainable financial support for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] Group 2 - In terms of debt replacement, 2 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds will be issued in the first and second quarters to alleviate local government hidden debt pressure [3] - The new quota for special bonds is expected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, accelerating in the second quarter [3] - The issuance of ordinary government bonds will be slowed down to avoid concentrated supply shocks, ensuring balanced issuance of various bonds [3] Group 3 - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, emphasizing the need for effective implementation and legal guidance to protect taxpayer rights and create a fair competitive environment [4] - The VAT Law is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, maintaining the current tax system framework and overall tax burden levels [4][5] - The VAT rates will remain at three levels: 13%, 9%, and 6%, with zero tax rates applied in certain situations, ensuring stability in tax revenue [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, focusing on the implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for effective coordination among government departments to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3]. Economic Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the commitment to a more proactive macroeconomic policy in the coming year, with an emphasis on an expansionary fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue the "debt-for-investment" approach, with a focus on issuing special refinancing bonds and special bonds for project construction [4][5]. - The anticipated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds will occur in the first two quarters to alleviate local government debt pressures [5]. Fiscal Measures - The new special bond quota is projected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, which will accelerate in the second quarter [5]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in tandem with special bonds [5]. VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [6][7]. - The VAT rates will remain at 13%, 9%, and 6%, with a zero rate for certain conditions, ensuring stability in tax revenue and fiscal governance [7].

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - In Q2 2025, the net issuance of government bonds reached approximately 6.66 trillion CNY, with a historical high of 1.91 trillion CNY in treasury bonds, marking an increase of 841.6 billion CNY year-on-year[1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 2.6481 trillion CNY in Q2 2025, with a net issuance of 1.7853 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 869.5 billion CNY[1] - Policy financial bonds saw a net issuance of 594.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, up 125.6 billion CNY from Q1, but down 2.062 trillion CNY compared to the same period last year due to a high base effect[2] Group 2: Q3 and Q4 Projections - For Q3 2025, total government bond net issuance is projected to be between 3.84 trillion and 4.38 trillion CNY, with treasury bonds estimated at 2.09 to 2.63 trillion CNY[3] - Local government bonds are expected to see a net issuance of approximately 1.75 trillion CNY in Q3, slightly down by 350 billion CNY from Q2 but up by 560 billion CNY compared to the 2020-2024 average[3] - In Q4 2025, the net issuance of government bonds is anticipated to be around 1 trillion CNY, with both treasury and local bonds expected to decrease in net supply compared to Q3[4] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - There is a risk that actual issuance of local government bonds may differ significantly from planned amounts, influenced by domestic policy adjustments and economic performance exceeding expectations[7] - The issuance of policy financial bonds may not see significant increases in Q3, with estimates around 600 billion CNY, as the central bank's actions could reduce the need for such bonds[3] - The overall supply pressure for government bonds is expected to be higher in July, with net issuance potentially reaching 1.47 to 1.65 trillion CNY, tapering off in subsequent months[3]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 一季度狭义财政收支分化。一般公共预算收入同比-1.1%，其中税收收入同比-3.5%，和去年全年的-3.4%大致相当，可能部分与PPI及名义增长中枢依然有 待提升有关；但支出同比达4.2%，显示出积极财政的特征。今年以来支出的主要拉动来自普通国债（非特别国债）节奏的显著前置，1-3月普通国债进度达30%左 右，为近年同期的最高水平。 第二， 一季度广义财政同样呈收支分化特征。政府性基金收入同比-11%、支出同比11.1%，收支差1万亿元，高于2024年，反映了广义财政托底较去年更加积极。 我们理解可能一则有去年底未使用完毕的超长期特别国债和专项债资金在今年年初形成支出；二则尽管用于"两新""两重"的超长期特别国债还未发行，中央已提前 安排了"两新"预拨付资金810亿元用于以旧换新、"两重"资金2300亿元用于项目建设，可在一季度形成支出。 第三， 从3月单月情况来看，较1-2月有边际好转。狭义财政一般公共预算收入当月同比0.3%，较前值-1.6%有所回升；其中税收收入同比-2.2%，较前值的-3.9%亦 ...