Core Viewpoint - The political turmoil in France is intensifying, leading to increased concerns among investors regarding the country's fiscal stability, as evidenced by significant sell-offs in the bond market and a decline in the euro against the dollar [1][4][6]. Group 1: Political Developments - The newly appointed French Defense Minister Bruno Le Maire announced his resignation just one day after taking office, following the resignation of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne [3][4]. - Prime Minister Borne's resignation was attributed to the inability to form a government due to entrenched political divisions among various parties [4][8]. - The political instability has prompted discussions about potential new elections, with a 57% probability of early elections being indicated by betting markets [14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the political upheaval, the yield on French 10-year government bonds surged past 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 European debt crisis [1][4]. - The spread between French and German bond yields reached its highest level of the year, exceeding 89 basis points [4]. - The euro has depreciated, falling below the 1.170 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns over France's political situation [6][14]. Group 3: Economic Implications - France's public deficit is projected to reach 5.8% of GDP in 2024, the highest in the Eurozone, with total debt at 113% of GDP, significantly above EU regulations [15][16]. - The government plans to tighten control over social and local government spending, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.7% by 2026 and approximately 3% by 2029 [17]. - Analysts warn that the resignation of the Prime Minister could lead to further instability, potentially forcing President Macron to resign, which would exacerbate the crisis [18].

在美国总统特朗普4月扩大关税措施之前，日本经济已经处于收缩状态。 对于一季度已萎缩的日本经济而言，前景依旧不容乐观。 日本内阁府6月9日发布的数据显示，日本第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）折合年率为下降0.2%，低于 此前预估的0.7%。 其中，个人消费增长了0.1%，企业支出增长了1.1%。库存为经济增长贡献了0.6个百分点，而净出口则 拖累了经济增长0.8个百分点。上述数据显示，在美国总统特朗普4月扩大关税措施之前，日本经济已经 处于收缩状态。 牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）日本首席经济学家长井滋人（Nagai Shigeto）近日在接受第一财 经记者采访时表示，对日本经济后续的走势较为悲观。在一季度增速下降后，长井预计，今年二季度日 本GDP增速会持平，"消费会维持温和增长的态势，但是全球经济增速放缓会影响日本的出口，同时， 围绕美国关税的高度不确定性会抑制日本国内外的投资。" 五轮关税谈判"无果" 在日本内阁府关于最新GDP数据公布前，日美刚刚结束第五轮关税谈判，但依然毫无进展。日本经济再 生担当大臣赤泽亮正于当地时间6月5日~6日在华盛顿出席了第五轮日美关税谈判。事后，他表示双 方 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to the increasing scale of government debt and interest payments, while adjusting the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Moody's is the latest credit rating agency to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, following Fitch's downgrade to AA+ in August 2023 and S&P's downgrade to AA+ in August 2011 [1] - The downgrades are closely associated with the U.S. debt ceiling approaching the "X date," raising concerns about fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Moody's expressed concerns about the current fiscal situation and future budget plans, predicting that by 2035, U.S. federal debt will reach 134% of GDP and the federal deficit could rise to 9% of GDP [1][2] - The agency noted that mandatory spending, including interest payments, will increase from 73% of total government spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, limiting budget flexibility for other public investments [2] Group 3: Current Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing by June 2025 [2] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of FY2025 has already exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for that period in history [2] Group 4: Political Context - The current fiscal challenges are described as long-term issues rather than short-term problems created by the current administration, with efforts underway to reduce federal spending and promote economic growth [3] - There are concerns regarding the objectivity of credit rating analysts, with political affiliations being questioned, although such claims may serve to divert attention from underlying fiscal issues [3]