【环球时报驻泰国特派记者 张矜若 环球时报记者 张旺 线一凡 陈欣】泰国自豪泰党党首阿努廷5日在国 会下议院投票中获得过半数支持，当选新一任泰国总理。阿努廷当选很大程度上得益于控制着下议院近 1/3席位的人民党的支持，该党与阿努廷达成协议，其中包括阿努廷承诺在4个月内解散国会，这将导致 明年2月举行新的大选。人民党则坚持继续保持反对党地位，这使得阿努廷只能组建少数派政府，或将 给其政策制定带来挑战。国际媒体普遍认为，即使已经选出新总理，泰国政局仍可能持续动荡。但日本 关西外国语大学副教授马克·科根告诉美国《时代》周刊，就目前而言，新总理的产生可能会结束泰国 的一段不稳定时期，并让阿努廷有机会证明自己的领导能力。不过，就在泰国投票选出新总理的前一 天，前总理他信突然乘机前往迪拜，称是去体检。而下周，泰国法院可能对他作出判决，使其面临牢狱 之灾。 "我们没有太多时间了" 5日，自豪泰党和执政的为泰党分别提名阿努廷、猜格森作为总理候选人参选。根据泰国宪法，总理候 选人获得下议院现有492名议员过半数支持即可当选。当天下午，在经过两个多小时的辩论和漫长的投 票等待后，选举结果公布：在总共490张选票中，阿努廷"轻松过 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） Philip Nova的分析师在一份报告中称，如果现货黄金价格持续突破3500美元，未来几个月金价可能触及 每盎司3600至3900美元的区间。她表示，降息预期、政治动荡和ETF需求旺盛等因素的推动，已使黄金 从一种战术对冲变成了许多投资者的战略必备资产。 ...

Group 1 - French business leaders warn that current political instability may lead to severe economic consequences, highlighting a lack of consensus on public finance reform [1][2] - The French government is facing a trust vote on September 8, with opposition parties planning to reject the government's deficit plan, indicating a challenging political landscape [2][3] - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, with warnings from business leaders about dwindling orders and increasing tariff pressures, which could threaten economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The yield on France's benchmark 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3.5%, nearing the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis, reflecting market unease [2][3] - The French economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, and increased uncertainty is seen as detrimental to consumer confidence, raising the risk of significant economic shocks [2][3] - France's fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024, with public debt reaching 114% of GDP by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a concerning fiscal outlook [3]

Group 1: European Economic Outlook - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that September may be the last opportunity for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates in the Eurozone, with current expectations that rates will remain at 2.00% unless August's consumer price inflation falls below expectations [1] - Concerns over Eurozone debt may weaken the Euro, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank, especially with the potential for a government trust vote in France regarding budget deficit cuts [2] Group 2: Consumer Confidence in Germany - The GfK consumer confidence index in Germany fell from -21.7 to -23.6, marking a third consecutive decline due to rising fears of unemployment and inflation uncertainty [2] - Analysts indicate that income expectations have dropped significantly, reaching the lowest level since March, contributing to the overall decline in consumer sentiment [2] Group 3: Market Impact of Political Uncertainty - Swiss bank analysts note that while political uncertainty in France has increased, its impact on the market remains limited, with a widening spread between French and German government bonds [3] - Barclays highlights that India faces heightened economic risks due to high tariffs, with a total trade-weighted tax rate of 35.7%, particularly affecting its electrical machinery and jewelry sectors [3] Group 4: Manufacturing Sector Concerns - CGS International economists warn that Singapore's manufacturing outlook may be negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs, with the manufacturing PMI falling into contraction territory in July [3] - Ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs are expected to sustain downward risks for Singapore's manufacturing sector [3]

更严峻的是，这场政治地震恰逢欧洲多国政局动荡，法国政府同样濒临崩溃，地区不稳定因素正削弱欧 盟应对特朗普贸易战及协调乌克兰和平进程的能力。 根据进步党D66提出的应急方案，若舒夫下台，内阁将由无党派高级官员暂代。但该提议既需议会多数 支持，还需国王威廉-亚历山大批准官员辞呈，前景充满变数。 智通财经APP获悉，荷兰首相迪克·舒夫及其内阁周三面临议会关键表决，这场可能引发政府下台的信 任危机正将国家推向前所未有的政治动荡。尽管具体流程尚未明确，但荷兰众议院大概率将讨论不信任 动议，若获通过，舒夫或其整个内阁将提前结束任期。值得注意的是，自六月份四党执政联盟瓦解后， 舒夫政府已处于看守状态，此时若再遭罢免，程序性处理将面临法律空白。 舒夫在周二致议会的信中称两党已就部长职位分配达成协议，但若留任仍需反对党支持，而各派条件近 乎苛刻——极右翼自由党要求立即封锁边境，左翼绿色联盟则坚持对以强硬立场，这些诉求均与当前危 机根源直接相关。 据了解，此次危机导火索可追溯至上周五：中右翼新社会契约党因在加沙战争政策上分歧退出执政联 盟，导致外交部长卡斯帕·维尔德坎普等核心成员集体辞职。看守政府瞬间萎缩至仅剩两党支持，在150 ...

【环球网报道】据《以色列时报》报道，以色列的内塔尼亚胡政府当地时间4日投票决定解除以总检察长加莉·巴哈拉夫-米亚拉的职务。报道称，内塔尼亚 胡政府长期以来一直在努力削弱司法机构，这一决定将在法律和政治层面上产生深远的影响。 美国"axios"新闻网称，这是以色列政府首次投票决定罢免总检察长。此举立即引发了对内塔尼亚胡试图保护自己及其助手的指责。以检方2020年以受贿、欺 诈和违背公众信任3项指控起诉内塔尼亚胡。除了此案，米亚拉还在调查内塔尼亚胡的顾问与卡塔尔的关系。 "axios"还称，内塔尼亚胡政府此举可能再次引发宪法危机，并使以色列重新陷入2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击前该国曾经历的政治动荡。 报道称，内塔尼亚胡政府对米亚拉的罢免当天被以色列最高法院叫停，直到大法官对罢免的合法性作出裁决。裁决作出前，法院禁止政府任命新的总检察 长，并禁止更改米亚拉的工作安排。米亚拉在投票后发表声明，称解除她的职务"不合法"，并誓言她和她的办公室将忠于法律，以专业和诚实的态度继续工 作。 ...

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1426 against the US dollar, showing a decline of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1439 [1] - This week is significant for euro traders due to the release of two high-impact financial data points: the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) for May and the revised GDP for the first quarter [2] - A slowdown in the HICP data could weaken the euro, indicating reduced inflationary pressure in the eurozone, which may increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, but actual actions may not sufficiently weaken the euro, as another cut is expected by year-end [2] - Political instability within Europe, particularly related to Ukraine and Palestine, continues to be a concern for euro traders [2] - Any progress in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine could positively impact the euro, while easing trade tensions between the EU and the US may also support the euro [2] Group 3 - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is at the 55-day moving average of 1.1175, with further support levels at the May low of 1.1064 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [2] - If these levels are breached, the euro may test the critical 200-day moving average support at 1.0815 [2] - Momentum indicators show divergence, with the average directional index (ADX) around 20 indicating weakening trend strength, while the relative strength index (RSI) breaking above 60 suggests increasing bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - The main constraints faced by Israel include institutional and security risks, poor economic management, and political instability [1]