Core Viewpoint - The implementation of free preschool education policy starting from the autumn semester of 2025 is backed by significant fiscal subsidies from the central government, indicating a shift in financial responsibility from families to the government [1][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The revised "Support for Preschool Education Development Fund Management Measures" includes a new purpose to "implement the policy of exempting childcare education fees," indicating an increase in budget allocations for preschool education [1][2]. Financial Implications - The central government's budget for preschool education development funds is set at 25 billion yuan for both 2023 and 2024, while the national fiscal education expenditure for 2023 is 5 trillion yuan, with preschool education accounting for 315 billion yuan [2][3]. - The estimated increase in national fiscal expenditure due to the exemption of childcare education fees is approximately 20 billion yuan for the upcoming autumn semester, potentially rising to 40 billion yuan for the 2025 academic year [3]. Regional Disparities - Different provinces will experience varying levels of financial support based on the number of eligible children and local fiscal conditions, with Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan being the major beneficiaries of the policy [1][9][12]. - Guangdong is identified as the largest beneficiary of the free childcare education fee policy due to its high number of enrolled children and economic development [12][13]. Family Financial Impact - The policy aims to reduce the financial burden on families, as evidenced by a parent’s experience where the monthly childcare fee decreased significantly after transitioning to a public preschool [5][6]. - Despite potential increases in public preschool fees in some regions, the overall financial support from the government is expected to outweigh these increases, leading to a net benefit for families [5][6][7]. Government Responsibility - The shift from family financial responsibility to government funding is characterized as a "reduction" in family education expenses and an "increase" in government responsibility [2][3][4]. - The overall increase in government funding for preschool education has outpaced the rise in family contributions, indicating a growing commitment to improving preschool education services [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of free preschool education policy will begin in the autumn semester of 2025, supported by significant fiscal subsidies from the central government [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance has revised the "Support for Preschool Education Development Fund Management Measures," adding the purpose of "implementing the policy of exempting childcare education fees" [3][4]. - The budget for preschool education development funds will significantly increase, with the central government covering a substantial portion of the costs [1][5]. Financial Implications - The central government's budget for preschool education development funds is set at 25 billion yuan for both 2023 and 2024, with an estimated increase in national fiscal expenditure of approximately 20 billion yuan for the upcoming autumn semester [5]. - The implementation of free education is expected to increase central fiscal support for preschool education by about 80% and national fiscal preschool education funding by approximately 13% [5]. Regional Impact - Provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan will receive larger benefits from the policy due to their higher number of eligible children and existing financial structures [1][11]. - Guangdong is identified as the primary beneficiary of the exemption policy, with a significant number of children enrolled in preschool and higher childcare fees compared to other regions [13][14]. Family Financial Relief - The exemption of childcare fees is expected to provide substantial financial relief to families, with some parents reporting significant reductions in monthly fees [7][8]. - However, there are concerns that rising fees in public kindergartens may offset the benefits of the free education policy [7][8]. Overall Educational Funding Trends - National fiscal education funding has increased from 862 million yuan in 2013 to 315 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a growing commitment to preschool education [8][10]. - The increase in government funding has outpaced the rise in family contributions, suggesting a shift towards greater public investment in early childhood education [10].

Macro News - In July, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate rebounding by 1.4 percentage points compared to June [1] - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with an increase of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The trade surplus for the month reached $98.24 billion [1] Education Funding - The Ministry of Finance has arranged for the annual childcare education subsidy funds, which will be distributed soon [2] - Local governments are being guided to develop detailed measures and standards for the subsidy based on local conditions [2] - Some regions that previously implemented preschool education funding are advised to ensure policy continuity [2] Warehousing Industry - The China Warehousing Index has maintained expansion for nine consecutive months [3] - In July, the index stood at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace [5] - The warehousing sector is experiencing a generally good operational state despite weak demand due to extreme weather conditions [5]