Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined by 9.4% this year, with a 5.54% drop in the last two months, raising concerns about the US government's policy confidence and the dollar's status as a global safe-haven currency [2] - In contrast, the offshore RMB has appreciated by 1.63% against the US dollar this year, with a 0.57% increase in the last two months, demonstrating stability compared to other currencies [2] - The South Korean won has also shown strength, rising 7.85% against the US dollar this year, with a 7.13% increase in the last two months, indicating a similar trend to the RMB [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea has reported a strong correlation between the won and the RMB, with an average correlation coefficient of approximately 0.6 since 2018, suggesting that the won's value may be influenced by RMB fluctuations [3] - The correlation between the two currencies is asymmetric; it strengthens when the won depreciates and weakens during periods of won appreciation [3][4] - The deep trade relationship between South Korea and China, along with shared exposure to the US dollar, is identified as a core reason for the increased linkage between the two currencies [4] Group 3 - South Korea has become China's second-largest trading partner after the US, with trade volume projected to reach 2.33 trillion yuan in 2024, significantly impacting currency values [5] - China has consistently been South Korea's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 21% of South Korea's total trade in 2023 [5] - A currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan between South Korea and China has been established, enhancing the stability of the RMB and won exchange rate [5][6] Group 4 - The direct trading of the won against the RMB will reduce reliance on third-party currencies like the US dollar, lowering transaction costs and exchange rate risks for South Korean companies [6] - The trend towards currency integration among Asian countries is expected to deepen, facilitated by the internationalization of the RMB and evolving international monetary systems [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bulgaria is on track to join the Eurozone, potentially adopting the euro as early as January 1, 2026, following a report from the European Commission and the European Central Bank [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Implications - Bulgaria's accession to the Eurozone is expected to enhance trade relations with other EU countries, reduce transaction costs, and increase its influence within the EU [1]. - Currently, Bulgaria's currency, the lev, is pegged to the euro, but it lacks a voice in the European Central Bank's monetary policy as it is not yet a member [1]. - The country's GDP accounts for less than 1% of the EU total, which raises concerns about its limited influence in the European Central Bank's decision-making [2]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Concerns - There are public concerns regarding potential price increases following the adoption of the euro, which could negatively impact the living standards of poorer families in rural areas [2]. - Some citizens remain skeptical about joining the Eurozone, with calls for a national referendum on the issue being dismissed as unconstitutional [2]. - Historical precedents from other countries that joined the Eurozone indicate that lower-priced countries may experience inflation as their prices align with higher Eurozone averages [2]. Group 3: Eurozone Expansion Context - Since its establishment in 1999, the Eurozone has been expanding eastward, with Croatia being the most recent member to adopt the euro on January 1, 2023 [2]. - Currently, seven EU member states, including Bulgaria, are not part of the Eurozone [3].