韩央行认为，在今后一段时间内，韩元走势将继续受人民币影响，货币联动现象将持续。他们对近十年来的33种 非关键货币与人民币联动程度进行了分析，研究显示，韩元和人民币之间的联动关系很强，自2018年以来二者的 相关性平均约为0.6。尤其是从去年起至今，该系数原本低于长期均值，自特朗普再次当选美国总统之后重新回 升。 该研究还显示，在韩元疲软的情况下，韩元与人民币联动程度加大，而在韩元强势的局面下，韩元与人民币的联 动性则较弱。近期，韩元和人民币处于联动状态，韩元价值可能受人民币走势的影响。 冉学东 特朗普发动贸易战，没有想到的是，美元指数持续下跌，今年累计下跌 9.4%，近两个月下跌达5.54%，尽管财政 部部长贝森特一再强调要维持美元的货币霸权地位，但是贸易战却引发大家对美国政府政策信心的动摇，对美元 全球避险货币信心的动摇，资金正在持续流出美国。 而就在这个时候，人民币却超出预料的稳定，离岸人民币对美元汇率今年以来累计上涨了1.63%，近两个月上涨 了0.57%，比起其他货币，比如欧元、日元、瑞士法郎和其他新兴经济体的货币，显得非常稳健。 还有一个货币也是显示了相当的稳健性——韩元，韩元今年以来对美元上涨7. ...

Core Viewpoint - Bulgaria is on track to join the Eurozone, potentially adopting the euro as early as January 1, 2026, following a report from the European Commission and the European Central Bank [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Implications - Bulgaria's accession to the Eurozone is expected to enhance trade relations with other EU countries, reduce transaction costs, and increase its influence within the EU [1]. - Currently, Bulgaria's currency, the lev, is pegged to the euro, but it lacks a voice in the European Central Bank's monetary policy as it is not yet a member [1]. - The country's GDP accounts for less than 1% of the EU total, which raises concerns about its limited influence in the European Central Bank's decision-making [2]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Concerns - There are public concerns regarding potential price increases following the adoption of the euro, which could negatively impact the living standards of poorer families in rural areas [2]. - Some citizens remain skeptical about joining the Eurozone, with calls for a national referendum on the issue being dismissed as unconstitutional [2]. - Historical precedents from other countries that joined the Eurozone indicate that lower-priced countries may experience inflation as their prices align with higher Eurozone averages [2]. Group 3: Eurozone Expansion Context - Since its establishment in 1999, the Eurozone has been expanding eastward, with Croatia being the most recent member to adopt the euro on January 1, 2023 [2]. - Currently, seven EU member states, including Bulgaria, are not part of the Eurozone [3].